kev238

Heavier now but real icy sound to it... Glazed cover of icy snow on the floor already

Snow just started in Nottingham... Light.. Been some ice pellets... Heavier stuff close by.. Be interesting to see what happens as heavier stuff moves in... Real mix of reports coming in from the region

Some people are so negative. Last night going on about g f s.. Now other things going wrong How can it be a let down when last night you were confident of no snow?

Some people like to dwell on negative... Nmm... Do any forecasting agencies use it? It would take a monumental shift for east midlands to miss out...

Having said that g f s seems to be showing some snow this evening now anyhow so perhaps the discussion is a bit irrelevant!

I will be interested to hear if the members who are going for the g f s over all the other high resolution models still are this morning. To me, this is a nailed on period of snowfall.. The n a e has been spot on recently, and just because it has made a mistake in the past, has no bearing on it's performance this time. The met office don't even mention uncertainty in their forecasts, though I guess there is a little about how much rain will fall at the end of the band. Sadly, it is a temporary band, but I love watching snowfall.

It will be pretty obvious by around 4pm tomorrow I guess, if it is snowing in north west England, then it will snow here. Being in the amber warning zone does indicate a reasonable degree of confidence, though I do remember the event you are talking about.

Fair comment. What they definitely don't use is the g f s They must place a fair degree of confidence in n a e as Ian fergusson often tweets about it and the latest guidance it offers, although tonight he has mentioned on another thread that the met office think it's version of events is an extreme version and likely to be moderated. The met office text forecast on their site speaks of heavy and drifting snow for after dark tomorrow... Not seen that in a forecast for us this winter.

Anyone taking what the gfs shows over the high resolution models is clearly not sensible. The met office use nae as the basis for their forecasts and that is good enough for me. I think it has got most snow events this winter spot on, perhaps under estimating some light snow fall on a couple of occasions. Therefore, I shall be using n a e as the major guidance for this event. Some snow seems inevitable: and for nottingham, this is the first time we have been in amber this cold spell. There could be quite a lot of snowfall, albeit very wet and transitional, clearing off by the end of the night!!

Intensification northern side of band.. Interesting to see what happens in next hour!!

Starting to Move north.. Ever so slowly. I don't think that bright patch is heading this way though.. Will likely miss and hit lincolnshire and further north

Yeah nothing her in centre of nottingham. Sliding about ten miles south or so. Sur there will be a move northwards at some point in next couple of hours.

Still moderate snow in Nottingham city centre. Quite a lot of bus routes pulled in north of city now!

I know that it has not been as bad here as in some areas but it has exceeded what I expected, even at lunchtime today!

Yes Sunday looks really interesting. We coukd be in a sweet spot again, though there is uncertainty!!

Yes but watnall is north of the city. Where I teach in bestwood it was thick with snow at 4 pm, prob 7 cm then, with 4 cm from earlier in week. Goes to show we have done quite well in the end with sunday looking very good at the moment!!

Red is for danger to life. Amber is pretty severe anyhow In Nottingham, snow seems to be a little bit heavier now. Was a little surprised to see on the BBC news 24 forecast a snow league table and Nottingham had 10cm, though a few of them are from Mondays event. The Nottingham site is in watnall which is a way out of the city and a bit higher up!

Yes; red warning should be for 30 cm.. Not 10 Met office has done pretty well I think over the past ten days!!

My one question is being pedantic how can you be five miles out of the amber but be slap bang int the yellow. Surely you are on the edge of the yellow?

It has been snowing in Nottingham for about two hours now. Started just before the end of the school day up where I teach in the north of Nottingham. The sky looks full of it, though not sure it can be sustained. Goes to show that when it is very cold little things can pop up.

Snowing in centre of notts. Was settling 2 hours ago up in north of city. Unexpeted but very pleasant surprise, though nae did show some light snow with it's pink shading! Tomorrow looks ok to for us east midlanders. 5 cm is more than I thought this morning!!

Be interesting to see whether the snow reaches beyond west midlands soon! Nae def slowing rate of passage of front, with it seemingly disintegrating a bit like the 12 z gfs showed!

The gfs is the worst model for us east midlanders with regards to snowfall, the others bring the precipitation through, though I don't think the snow would be of the heavy variety. More the slow steady type. The good thing is that with dew points and surface temperatures excellent, then it will have no trouble lying, even if intensities are low! I reckon a round 5cm for most of us, perhaps more. The nae will be instructive in a couple of hours time. We def don't want to see it holding back the precipitation.

After looking through all the models it does appear a slight shift towards disrupting the low pressure a little further west than this morning. Our region is on the edge... Still ok for some snow but perhaps not a disruptive fall of fifteen centimetres.

Not sure why you think the nae has moved westwards.. The crucial frame would be the next one. From what I can see the nae shows the snow across the whole region, albeit llight to moderate at best. I must admit I am slightly more worried this afternoon than this morning after the 6z run. However, that is due to to the gfs charts whereas ukmo charts push precipitation all the way through to the far east.