kev238

Amazing to be so far above average! If you were reading the model output thread you would believe this month to be far closer to average with the constant screaming of cold, cold, cold. The issue is that during cold zonal periods daytime temperatures may be slightly below average but due to Strong winds nighttime lows don't drop too far. Therefore the cold zonal periods are slightly below average whilst the milder days are way above average more than counter balancing the cold. One exceptionally mild day might need 5 slightly below days to balance it. The next five or six days are a good case in point- a couple of pretty mild days and 4 or so pretty average or just below periods ( looking at the daytime and nighttime averages) . Net result a cet that will be slightly above the long term average ( though the running average for this month will certainly lower)

Indeed The gfs parallel has exceptionally strong wind gusts for a large portion of England and Wales with some white shading indicating gusts upwards of 80-90 mph. Yet the focus seems to be on the chance of a frost or two and the chance of a fleeting snow shower The old gfs paints a less severe- given the parallel takes over on the 14th ( the day the Storm arrives on these shores) it will be interesting to see which is correct

Not a lot has changed this morning. A quite unsettled period coming up with the South influenced at times by a very powerful Azores high. The cet by the 10th is likely to be 1 to 1.5 degrees above average. From about the 11th there is the potential for a wilder period that is increasingly cool/ cold- following on from that is where there will be questions and speculation.

Are you seriously suggesting the charts are similar ? The charts posted by captain shortwave are as unfavourable to cold as you can possibly face a week into January if they verify - from there there is no quick route to cold despite your dubious November 2010 analogy

If the charts that are posted above verify then it is a very long route to cold charts - they are as bad as it gets really if you are looking for cold and snow in the first 20 days of January. Being objective, it does seem a long shot to believe there will be any long lasting snowfall in lowland Britain before the 20th of this month ( and that is being generous ) At least last winter had interest ( being a weather enthusiast ) whereas this winter could end up being a snooze fest for most of England devoid of any interesting conditions dominated by high pressure to the south

It seems pretty clear the pattern for the next 10 days or so is set. What needs to be remembered is that it did not take especially outstanding charts to deliver a notable snowfall to central parts - albeit a pretty limited zone. Therefore, this hunt for -10 uppers blowing from East is not necessary to product snowfall.

Merry Christmas everyone This week has been fascinating in terms of modelling the weather on the 26th- 27th- it is very unclear what the low will deliver but it seems that many parts will see their first falling snow in over a year Longer term a brief flattening of the pattern seems likely but I can't see it lasting too long .

It seems clear that Xmas day will see a cold north westerly flow developing . What follows after that is open to debate. At least we are seeing some interesting charts- pretty much the whole of lowland England has not seen anything in the way of snow since march 2013 . The charts in the 8-12 day period definitely offer some potential for snow in this period

It looks likely it will end up at around 8.5 degrees for the month. This means an average December would lead to the warmest cet on record That must be a good bet at the moment - I would think there must be an 80% chance of the warmest CET on record for the year .

It has to be said, looking at the models, that next week looks incredibly mild- almost warm . Temperatures according to gfs into the high teens across much of England . This is also backed up by my weather pro app ( based on ECM model I think ). In my opinion, there needs to be a big shift in weather patterns if we want colder weather this winter as we seem to be in an unrelenting pattern of milder with one blip in August - good for heating bills though!

25mm in Nottingham city centre since 9am. Reports of flooding in city according to bbc website Looking at the radar could get towards 40mm I think depending on the convective elements in the system

Have had 20mm of rain from the system so far abide it started properly as 9am: the vast majority between 955am and 1040am. This is added to 25 mm on Friday .

Was not expecting too much from Bertha but since 940am have had 16mm of rain in central Nottingham

Serious storm in Nottingham - angriest sky I have seen - clouds rotating in all directions!

I hope the posters who have been calling pattern change for most of the winter have finally accepted that the status quo will remain for the rest of February.It has been a pretty amazing winter , certainly not boring from a weather perspective .

I find it very odd that weather enthusiasts could be bored this winter. This winter has been far from boring; how could living through the wettest winter period for 250 years be described as boring.

I always look at the name of the poster to assess how objective they are.As has been the case, wet, mild, unsettled; not mild in the double figures sense but mild in terms of a overall average !The overall pattern is so set that it is pretty clear there is not going to be a significant cold spell this winter. All the ensembles /data/ forecasts suggest this. Meanwhile we have potentially the wettest / stormiest winter on record. A winter people say is boring; I would suggest these people are not really weather enthusiasts as how can such an extreme season be boring ?

It has been amazing how few cold fantasy charts there have been this season; this really highlights how strong the signals for no cold and snow have been. Of course we have a cold couple of days this week but due to cloud cover mean temperature will probably end up broadly average .

All the signals point to wet and mildish for first two weeks of February , that means two weeks of winter left . Of course things can change but I would wage the pattern is set now .

I am a weather enthusiast, therefore I enjoy all interesting weather. I have enjoyed the storms this past month and it intrigues me as to how wet and mild this winter could end up being. The met office have been awesome this winter in their mid range forecasts, regardless of the small hints in the models until they start singing cold I would say it remains unlikely. For weeks there has been talk of what could happen ; reality is potentially a plus 6 cet for January and a month that could end in the very wet category across England especially. This is not a doom and gloom post as I welcome all weather.

Some more interesting charts this evening; what does seem probable is that there is going to be a fair amount of rain, cold rain at that , with a small chance of some snow temporarily.

Awesome summary Martin; your analysis is always spot on and balanced , not getting suckered in by cold charts that are in the minority. It does seem likely that the next week will be unsettled and wet, following that I fear Azores high ridging pushing in. If this happens could be the pattern into February. It really does seem that snow is highly unlikely in the next fortnight and probably longer.

Any sniffs on an easterly are gone today. A trough taking situ near the uk is most likely giving unwelcome rain, though not as bad as previous weeks. Following that, pressure looks likely to rise from the southwest . Potentially this winter could end up in the very very mild category!

In my opinion, there has been a lot of hunting for cold. Almost all the models have painted a mild, wet and windy picture, trending less unsettled with time . It is going to take a massive shift somewhere for this to change

It really does seem clear that this pattern is going to take some shifting. More concerns over flooding as rainfall totals progressively mount up; it does seem likely that January will end up with a large total of rainfall, would not surprise me if many areas were at their average for the month inside the first ten days or so