kev238

Multiple bouts of rain over the next 6 days ; pretty sure flooding will be hitting headlines more and more. Saying that todays did not produce a great deal of rain over in the East Midlands

There seems to be a lot of hunting for cold, claims of patterns changes etc. the reality is more of the same. Eventually , of course , there will be a pattern change but some people might have been calling for a pattern change for weeks by then. What huge change does occur does that mean kudos for people constantly talking of change/ cold. The posters I follow closely are fergieweather and Martin Gibbs; impartial with no bias. Any profile that has any mention of cold in profile title/ name should be treated with caution lol

Nothing in my opinion has really changed since Xmas. Very wet , often windy weather within temperatures around average , leading to flooding. Very little sign of a route out at the moment , the only crumb of comfort being the met office mentioning colder towards end of January . The main news will surely be flooding, especially in larger slow responding rivers where cumulative rainfall will cause big problems . I don't think there will be anything as severe as last Monday but incessant passages of low pressure will cause increasing problems on rivers such as the Thames, Trent , Avon and Severn

It is pretty clear that the overriding signal at the moment is for more of the same, albeit slightly less extreme. I would be very surprised if anywhere in lowland England saw significant lying snow before the middle of January based on current output, the next ten days seems quite nailed on unsettled and wet and average; following that it would take time to get Synoptics that would be conducive. This winter seems very different to the past few in terms of a roaring and powerful jet; it may well be a winter remembered for Floods and winds

This winter does feel very different to winters over the past few years; a roaring key and vigorous lows zooming by. It appears that a major atmospheric change is needed to bring about a major change ; unsettled mild and wet, or unsettled average and wet must be considered the most likely options. Picking out random ensemble members and trying to present them as evidence of change is misleading .

Simply incredible ; got no idea how much has fallen in last 20 minutes but over half an inch for sure; probably more.

Whoaa; the most insane rainfall in Gloucester for past 15 minutes! In addition to heavy falls all day; impressive storm indeed and sure to be causing surface flooding all over the city

Whoaa; the most insane rainfall in Gloucester for past 15 minutes! In addition to heavy falls all day; impressive storm indeed and sure to be causing surface flooding all over the city

Surely the point is that temperatures of twenty three or so are extremely pleasant and will feel warm in the sunshine; average or slightly above in august are pleasant conditions.

All I can see on this run is more chance of unsettled weather and strong winds!!

Some snow in Nottingham, heavier stuff not quite making it here.

According to BBC it is meant to be moving north west actually, they have repeatedly mentionee east midlands and east angkia and south yorkshire, no mention of pushing into west midlands by them.

Normally with an easterly regime we see big model flips; guess the signal is so strong that these are not happening at the moment!!

What is becoming clear is that this march is going to go down in history as the coldest since 1987 and probably 1962. This snowfall in Nottingham is fast becoming more remarkable than that at the end of November 2010; never that heavy but very persistent!! And if ECM verifies then truly extreordinary, no sign of spring for the next ten days, temperatures five or 6 degrees below the average for the end of march Whilst I would love to go outrunning in spring wArmth I love this unusual times so bring it on!!!

Light snow in Nottingham.. Bo ten centimetres and looks amazing. Temperature peaked at 0.7 degrees centigrade, and is now down to 0.3. More snow expected this evening and tonight; I am not sure that the east midlands will be getting pasted but expect a centimetre or two of snow in addition to what we already have. Areas north of here might do much better as is often the case, as well as the derbyshire peaks.

Heaviest snow of morning in Nottingham, nae and gfs both suggest light snow continuing in a band from the wash towards the east midlands, peak district and southern pennines for many hours. Temp in centre of city just above freezing.

Turning into a good event now for Nottingham, not the most exciting intensities of snow but very persistent and looking a little heavier again out there now with slightly brighter echoes on radar spreading from the east south east. Prob around 6 cm on my terrace table righr in centre of Nottingham on 6 th floor of apartment. Not bad; little surprised that the locAl radio mentioned east midlands airport had had twelve centimetres of snow overnight; seems a lot more than others around here, or the radio got it wrong!

About 5cm in nottingham, not as much as I expected, but better than what seemed likely at midnight last night. Does seem as if precipitation is getting more organised, rather than fizzling!!

Bizarre day today on Nottingham, pretty snowless where I life but where I work on the northern edge of city there was around 4 cm of snow this morning. Then a thaw , despite some heavy showers. Persistent wet snow refusing to settle until last fifteen minutes when something changed which allowed snowfall to settle.

You really have to wait for the rain snowfall charts to comment on nae. Out to twenty four hours and defo good for brum northwards and eastwards. Perhaps a little further south as well. Also good for shropshire etc but will need to be patient there.

Can't help thinking that this event could be more serious than warnings suggest, a red warning was issued in January for the valleys of wales and this event looks at least as severe for the peaks!! nae defo boosts amount of precipitation, can't find out as yet heat it suggest falling from sky! Might have decided to turn everywhere wet although this seems unlikely!!

Pretty certain to be rain there to start in the west of region... That is to be expected! To me it looks like gfs at moment has precipitation well modelled at thus point... Whether that continues to be the case is open to question

I think just be patient if you are somewhere like shropshire, likely that rain will fall at first, switching to snow as someone else has said!! Nottingham looks like a good position depending on how heavy precipitation is when it reaches here!

ECM and gfs both have the milder uppers 50 or 60 miles further north east than ukmo as one o clock tomorrow. Impossibe to know who will be correct, not sure if this then has a knock on effect on the precipitation being further east on these two compared to nae and ukmo; though it would prob be a fair assumption that this would be the case It has reached the stage now where you need to look at the radar, does look likely that there will be a drier slot mid afternoon I reckon stoke area to get 20 cm plus of snow

Depends on what happens with front, gfs very stubborn in its predictions. Normally I side with n a e so will this time. However the gfs was correct a week or two ago with the channel storm clipping the south east moreso than other models. I am sure notts will do ok