kev238

Goodness me- every post I read from a certain poster goes on about how rubbish everything is. Perhaps chill out a bit- it is the weather !

Considering the Synoptics this winter, I feel many parts (roughly Midlands northwards) have got as much out of it as possible snowfall wise. Moving forwards, it looks like cold will remain for another week but I think snowfall will be limited unless the high manages to squeeze further northwardS - possible but not the most likely option. Following that an easing of the cold looks likely in the run up to mid February - no sign of a mild period though and there clearly seems to be the chance of more wintry potential at times with repeating patterns. Unfortunately I just cannot see a true deep cold easterly setting up this winter

Yes in Nottingham perhaps a cm in the hillier parts but nothing much in the lower parts. It does seem that showers generally miss the Nottingham area streaming just to the north of just to the south quite often in all seasons. Some might bemoan luck but clearly there are topographical reasons at play Later tonight does appear to offer some chances here if the precipitation maintains its track though a high degree of uncertainty remains

Looking at the radar it does seem like it is tracking further east than the bbc were suggesting. Perhaps not quite far enough eastwards for me though

Of course the track is not clear but you can see it on the radar so can start to make judgements on what might happen

It should become fairly clear in the next few hours where it is going to track- it does look like it is going much further east than the earlier projections and the latest model runs suggest this as well (gfs, nmm, ecm though euro 4 does not) I would say my neck of woods stands a chance - not sure if it will settle in the city centre though

I am not sure if I am being biased here but the polar low ( or whatever else we want to call it) clearly looks to be heading a bit further east than the bbc are suggesting matching the gfs projections. Perhaps I am not looking at it correctly or with rose tinted glasses!

Lets be clear- the forecast seems to be going exactly as forecast. Some places might get a covering- most wont tonight. The areas most likely to get a covering are areas that have already been lucky this winter as clearly indicated by the warnings the met office has issued. In Nottingham there have been some passing snow showers but they haven't really come to anything.

You can certainly hope and dream but don't start claiming massive downgrades/ let downs/ unfairness when it doesn't happen (or most likely doesn't happen on this occasion)

No charts at the moment point to epic snow for our region. It annoys me that people mis read the charts then claim downgrades/ let downs when the events have passed- we might get a few snow showers in the short term this week. No sign of epic snow as things stand

I think the best chance of snowfall in this region will be Wednesday night. After than patience might be required for further chances in the first week of February- if the cold remains in place. This has been a good winter for my little patch of the Midlands - slight disappointment on Tuesday night but still got a covering which was topped up surprisingly on Wednesday around lunchtime. Added to that the excellent Boxing Day event ( which I was away for but saw the great snow over two days later through didn't feel it was my snowfall as I didn't see it falling) Means that Nottingham has probably got as much out of this frustrating winter as possibly could be got. This event doesn't scream out as one for my area as it stands through sometimes a North westerly can deliver showers to this area.

On the face of it, the gfs operational suggests limited snow opportunities for inland areas of England. However, , when you look at the ensembles it suggests there is hope of features cropping up I think the initial blast will probably deliver to the usual suspects in these scenarios- other areas will have to be patient for their chances if the cold persists into February.

Modelling blasts from the north / North west seems much easier for the models than from East/ North east. Therefore there should be a high degree of confidence of a cold spell from the north . This will most likely be good for the north although in the south the weather could be sparkling with sunshine but largely dry ( in the main) If these charts verify then the winter could creep into the good category for some northern part though they are unlikely to end the lying snow drought in the parts of the country that have not seen lying snow In the past 22 months .

It seems there is a good chance of something from the North in about 8-10 days- the azores high is modelled consistently in the models and does not seem to be in the mood to go anywhere so I cant see any real sign of anything significant from the east. I think it highly unlikely we will get a beast from the east this year- that is not to say we wont get some bitter northerly air later in the winter. I think we will get at least one more shot at some snowfall during the winter/ early spring. That is not based on anything- just a hunch!

Been snowing quite hard for the past hour in Nottingham I live in the city centre and it has settled even here which is far more than I expected - it took ages to start to settle though

Low expectations here in Nottingham- though everything has changed so many times that it really is a case of looking at the radar in these situations! Regardless, it is all going to turn into a sleety damp mess during tomorrow morning so it will just be nice to see some snow falling as I was away for the boxing day snow!

There are some ridiculous knee jerk reactions here regarding the potential shown tomorrow night. The gfs has changed its precipitation forecast drastically from 6 to 12z but it'll probably change again . I don't think a great deal in the scheme of things has changed- a potential for some snow somewhere tomorrow evening/ night but not a whiteout.

Yes but when you get posters talking of it being all over the shop and taking these automated forecasts as gospel then you are likely to get frustration. If you read back through this thread (over the past few days) there are a lot of people who takes these automated forecasts literally- then criticising the BBC / met office when the symbols change or don't match perfectly the conditions they experienced. Moving on, it does seem strange there are no warnings out as all the output suggests some settling snowfall for this region. It is puzzling how there are no warnings- surely if the output remains consistent then a be aware warning will be put out even if the main emphasis is on areas of elevation? Perhaps there will be snow falling but that settling snow will be at a minimum.

This might sound a bit rude but do posters not understand that the automated forecasts will change with every new run of data- all this talk, and drama, about changing symbols is a bit crazy. As far as I can see, nothing has changed. There could be a heavy snowfall somewhere in our region- no more detail is really possible and it wont be possible until very close to the event when the radar and ground reports will give a good idea of what happens. The boxing day event unfolded slightly differently to how the models had suggested and that only became clear when the radar suggested that everything would push through 40 miles further than expected.

Well I thought the westerly regime was likely yesterday for the weekend onwards- now it looks like that is on shaky ground. There really is very little detail over what is likely to happen in the next 72 hours let alone by the weekend. I don't see a signal for heavy snowfall this week- light patchy snowfall yes but not widespread heavy disruptive falls.

Being pedantic but likely suggests around 75% chance which in my book denotes a clear signal. Not certain granted

It is interesting that fergieweather notes there is a clear signal for a return to a westerly regime- I hope this is noted. I am always told get the cold in and the snow opportunities will arrive- surely this coming week it a case in point. Embedded cold with a sliding system will produce snow for some though I can't really see snowmageddon occurring. However, a couple of cms caused problems so could be fun and games. It

It is a really intriguing outlook. It seems certain it will stay cold until Friday of next week but how that translates to conditions on ground regarding snowfall is difficult to gauge. In my opinion there doesn't seem to be the precipitation signal for widespread disruptive snowfall- some lighter snowfall perhaps but the trough disruption looks like a weak and weakening feature at least in the first half of the week.

We are always told get the cold in and snow opportunities will emerge. It is clearly going to get colder- not exceptional cold- but just after Xmas wasn't exceptional cold and delivered a good fall of snow for a strip of the country.

Confidence must be high that there will be a significant winter storm hitting large parts of the uk on Wednesday / Thursday. The exact track is still to be determined but it looks likely to deliver gales and severe gales widely with the potential for something a little more extreme in some areas The met office must be watching this closely and it wouldn't surprise me if they issued a yellow nationwide warning in next 24-36 hours just to start warning of potential of this event. After the Storm has passed there looks like being a brief colder period but then the form horse must be a return to a toned down version of that we face now. The charts at 384 are pretty vile - if they verified then that would be a bad sign. However, at that range we know to take them with a pinch of salt.