claret047
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Posts posted by claret047
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13 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:
Light drizzle here this morning in on the Essex/Suffolk border...bloody cold though!
Ditto in Mid Essex, although it was a bit heavier for a while. Looks a bit brighter now. I guess it will be a case of lamp post watching over the rest of this week once the Arctic air is established over us.
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39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Looking at Tues morning gfs snow and dp’s - doesn’t look likely to be sticking snow to me
Well I sincerely hope that the snow does not stick to you, as we all want to share in the fun. Seriously though as with all features to the south of us we tend not to know the exact timing and track of such systems until much nearer the time and eve4n then if it arrives after dark it is a case of lamp post watching to see what happens. All very much last minute "will it, wont it?"
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Just a quick note from me to thank posters on here in making this a most interesting thread during the winter months. It is the thread I look for at this time of year when I access the website.
Especial thanks to MIA for his extensive input on this interesting subject, All the best to you and your family.
Merry Christmas to everyone and let us hope for a more prosperous new year.
Kind Regards
Dave
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24 minutes ago, clark3r said:
Yesterday the week between Christmas and new year was looking very interesting on gfs for collies. Today the chances look to have reduced significantly. Models all over the place let’s hope for upgrades by all models in next couple of days
I didn't know dogs were particularly interested in the GFS. Seriously though the latest charts are less inspiring but we can at least hope for something better in the next round of trauma the 06Z.
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31 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Just like this current spell, bone dry look.
Tell that to folk in Northern Scotland and parts of the southeast and other favoured spots.!
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1 hour ago, Cold Winter Night said:
New data are gathered (weather stations, satellites, airplanes, etc) every time at 0z, 12z etc. though some data are older or not available every run.
Then from all those data, the 0h starting state of the atmosphere (and oceans) is calculated. So the starting point is not a blank canvas.From there, the equations representing the physical process of the atmosphere, oceans, and ice produce every next step.
If you would like to learn more about the ECMWF IFS model (EC/EPS), this is recommended reading:
Many thanks for your reply. I will read the link you have so kindly provided.
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Can someone explain to me how the actual charts are arrived at. Is the data collected for each run used on to coin a better phrase "a blank canvas" or is it inputted into the previous run and the results spewed out therefrom. On the other hand is the data from say today's 12Z inputted into yesterday's 12Z for todays 12Z model. Alternatively is it a combination of 2 of these with perhaps some human input thrown in for good measure. Sorry for the ramble, but I would be intrigued to know.
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11 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Will be interesting to see what effect the upcoming cold period will have on the late Autumn flowering we have seen this year. I have geraniums going strong, treasure flowers still in full bloom, a bush of some sort with blossom flowers and new leaves, hydrangeas bursting out again, and this is the less warm climes of the Lake District, can imagine further south some early spring bulbs are blooming.
We've had a few light frosts recently, but nothing severe, and daytime temps though quite cold again not very so, alas the ground is only slowly cooling. I would expect the upcoming cold period to blacken everything and stunt things, sending growth into a rapid retraction and frost bite ensue.
Welcome thoughts and observations.
As I posted on another thread a few weeks back, I have gladioli in bloom and following RHS advice I set broad been seeds late October and they are about a foot tall with blooms on. Goodness knows what will happen to these plants, once the forecast cold sets in.
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20 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Yes please , That will do nicely thanks
Mark, I trust you and your family are well. What are you doing posting GFS charts? BTW when does the mighty Navgem come out?
Lind Regards
Dave
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Further to my post yesterday about my allotment, weird things are also happening in our garden. Not only our flowers continue to bloom, but a lovrely white gladiola is just starting to flower, having failed to do so all summer.
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I don't know if it can be attributable to climate change but when I visited my allotment today after an absence of about a week and noticed the following:
1) My raspberries are still heavily cropping and I picked loads of them with a lot more still to ripen
2) I set a couple of rows of broad beans in late September/early October, and I notice that they now have blossoms on several of them. A couple are also infested with blackfly. I set them in Autumn rather than spring as I had read somewhere blackfly would not be a problem with an autumn sowing,
I don't know what will happen with the beans as there is the question of pollination at this time of the year. Is anyone else experiencing ther same issue?
Kind Regards
Dave
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Many of the local roads have minor flooding on them and the rain relentlessly continues to fall. No work on the allotment for me today unless I wish to set rice.
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Hello Dave (MIA) Thanks for the update. Whilst enjoying your chicken and prawns were you by any chance watching the BBC Evening news? It has just shown an item on global warming and featured film form Svalbard with bears on rocks instead of ice floes. Is that area as dire as the feature claims or is it sensationalism? Reading you regular updates it would appear the ice gain and snow cover is generally going well this year and you predict it is going to get a whole lot better next week with more favourable conditions prevailing.
Kind Regards
Dave
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56 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
The LLC (Low Level Circulation) and convection are closing together now, we can see that it's strengthening because it's moving south of previous forecasts and unfortunately is a direct hit on many of the Leeward Island as it looks to strengthen as it continues on its path and that is now shown by the NHC's forecast showing a Hurricane is possible after it passes these Islands and moves towards the Bahamas. So with this, a more westerly track than previously forecast is quite possible.
The reason for this southerly movement initially is that the tail will gain height quickly and so the Tropical Storm be more impacted by the upper-level winds in that portion of the atmosphere which will push it initially slightly more southerly and that's what looks to have happened/ be happening here.
Just now, claret047 said:Very interesting Eagle Eye. In the longer term with this somewhat changed course, how is this likely to impact upon our weather?
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It is good to see this thread up and running again. As MIA posted on the first page the loss of ice ceases about the middle of September. I like to think it is around my birthday, which was yesterday and believe it is also Mrs MIA's birthday too. Many Happy Returns to her David if that is the case.
This is one of my favourite threads on Netweather and many thanks to all who posts their views and observations on here,
Being totally unscientific I feel we will have a very average winter this year, perhaps a tad colder with one or two snowy outbreaks, but very little of anything down south as any cold spells will be from the North/Northwest rather than off the continent mainland or Scandinavia.
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1 hour ago, moogyboobles said:
I was watching the lightning from my bed about 5am, when the cat decided I should get up. No proper rain here, it's all just to the west of me. So frustrating!
But this moody sky is enjoyable.
Good morning Moogyboobles. You were very unlucky. Here in North Springfield we have had an absolute deluge and frequent lightning. It has now stopped at least for a while.
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No real rain in sight for the foreseeable. The further outlook looks a bit concerning with maximum temperatures forecast to hit 43C in some spots. We certainly need a good rain. The other day I was sitting on Writtle Green under a tree waiting for my wife to return from a shop and it was just like autumn with loads of leaves falling onto and around me. I also noticed the other day that some large trees have leaves browning already. Is this unusual?
Kind Regards
Dave
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Here in mid Essex a total disappointment. Just light to moderate rain overnight. Hopefully we will see something this evening.
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We had a storm yesterday evening just after 8 O'clock with quite a bit of lightning and torrential rain. A very heavy shower has just passed through but was not electric. The sun is now shining brightly although it is still raining. Perhaps we will be lucky with another storm later this evening.
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Thanks MIA.
I look forward to the next refreeze and your very interesting and informative posts on the subject later this year.
In the meantime stay well and enjoy the spring/ summer weather.
Kind Regards
Dave
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21 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:
Severe flooding in the Derwent valley, and lots of other places by the looks of things.. minimal media coverage of course because it's not in the South East
Very windy here still in mid Essex. last evening's squall line was very powerful as it passed over us. At one point I feared we would lose power as our lights were going on and off as well as losing satellite pictures.
I simply don't get all the angst against the southeast. We had it really bad on Friday, with one property in Brentwood severely damaged by a fallen tree, (shown on TV yesterday) and a lot of damage elsewhere.
As far as media coverage is concerned, it was the main point of the news on BBC Breakfast News this morning, showing flooding in areas outside the southeast. Seek and ye shall find.
I find it sad to see such postings that do not reflect reality, but an ingrained perception.
Kind Regards
Dave
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7 hours ago, Chris Smith said:
M4 Buoy - 45ft waves. Wow!
I didn't realise the M4 was that badly flooded, although we have had a lot of rain.
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19 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:
Please can the gfuqhgfpjhing about The Met Office stop or go off to the correct thread?
They are not idiots, there is no hidden agenda, they are doing their best in what is a challenging situation. Perhaps we should all say what we think the maximum gust will be at our nearest weather station will be and see how good we are at forecasting? Er, Shoeburyness 71mph.
Is not Writtle College closer for you? My guess for Writtle 76 mph
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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:
BBC Lunchtime 1.30pm forecast with Chris Fawkes said 'potentially' could be one of the worst storms for the last few decades' with associated winds widely from 70-100mph gusts...not sitting on the fence there! 100mph gusts mainly towards the south west exposed areas.
I very much doubt anyone will be sitting on the fence on Friday, they would be blown off it!
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Are they playing? Seriously you are that bit further north than us, although a bit nearer to the coast, but you could well be OK. It is a matter of wait and see as it appears to be all so finely balanced.
Friday I am really interested as my wife and i are driving up to Huntingdon in the afternoon and there is great uncertainty as to how far north the milder air will travel.