claret047
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Posts posted by claret047
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I wasn't sure whether to post the following here or on the model thread.
Being a novice the current rather boring weather with no WAA going up into the arctic around a Greenland High, should we be grateful looking at the wider picture that the set up we have been enjoying of mostly benign weather has helped the arctic to have one of the best build ups of ice looking back over several years and if this pattern continues could help to an extent nullify the impact of climate change
. Also, does anyone know how things are looking as far as the Antarctic is concerned with summer melt. Are things as good down there as far as climate change is concerned? Is it still having a considerable impact?.
Kind Regards
Dave
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9 hours ago, offerman said:
It’s all too far out imho for those cold charts. Remember what was progged for the Christmas period and the flip just two days out for the worse.
Wait until these charts verify much nearer the time hehe getting yourselves too excited , save being let down too much that way. Gfs does overcook these types of cold scenarios.
Sorry to be pedantic but how can something "verify nearer the time". Surely it can only verify at the time that is shown on the chart?
This time I feel, and it is no more than a feeling, the building blocks will gradually evolve rather than an overnight change. Gradual changes tend to result in longer term conditions staying insitu rather than sudden ones, which tend to be northern topplers.
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Yet another dull, drizzly day. we did have a few minutes brighter weather earlier this morning but it did not last.
With climate change I wonder if the weather systems are driven by climate change or the weather systems drive climate change.
In other words do the positions of high pressure/ depressions dependent upon on the changing climate or do the weather systems subsequently result in climate change , The old chicken and egg thought on my part.
What do others think? I have not been on the sherry this morning! Honest. It is just difficult to explain what I am attempting to explain.
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A very Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year to one and all.
It is another dull, drizzly day here, with heavier rain forecast from midday onwards. Is it my perception or has it been cloudier than most Decembers? I struggle to think of the last time we saw much sunshine this month. It has been days on end of grey.
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1 hour ago, Ice Day said:
Thanks MIA, your updates are always extremely comprehensive and you provide some really good information. Have a great Christmas and I look forward to your next update.
From another Chelmsfordian I concur with what you say. This thread is the first one I look for in the winter each time I access Netweather.
Thanks MIA (Dave) for your wonderful input. All the best to you and your family over the Festive period. I trust you and your wife are well.
Merry Christmas to you too ID and to all others who contribute to or read this thread.
Kind Regards
Dave
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17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
If it’s a blocked - starting pistol ya looking for- with instrumental possibilities- going forwards. And you’re not happy with these.. then start knitting or something, or maybe stamp collecting
@ GEFS 500s the 6z suite.
I collect stamps, after all philately gets you everywhere! I am the Membership Secretary of the Chelmsford and District Philatelic Society. Please let me know if any of you wish to join! Looking at the charts it looks as though I will not have any takers,. Some may, however wish to take up knitting, after all a [air of thick woollen gloves may come in very handy.
On a serious note looking at the various charts that have been shown on this thread this morning I am very excited that by Christmas we will be in frigid air. This is completely against what I stated in my winter forecast on another thread. Which just goes to prove what do I know,
Keep up the good work T I and others in the build up to the festive season.
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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
My God , sensational developments tonight...
Ec 46 brings a cold Christmas week ..
Sorry to be a tad ignorant but as there is no key to the map above could someone explain the relevance of the different colours. I assume blue means cold, but how cold compared to average and what does the lilac indicate? Does it mean even colder and to what degree?
Thanks
Kind Regards
Dave
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10 hours ago, damianslaw said:
We have a run in to early winter thread.. that has gone quiet in recent days given meteorological winter starts in just over a week. We haven't a thread dedicated to winter forecasts and predictions. Will probably only see activity over next 10 days or so but please use this thread to put your thoughts together for upcoming season. Forecasts and predictions.
I'll give some musings over the weekend.
I very much look forward to reading your musings and any other contributions to this thread.
To my simple mind we are due for a below average winter temperature wise and as MIA and others have stated in the Snow and Ice an the Northern Hemisphere thread, ice gains this year are well ahead of recent years at this time, If we have extreme cold under snow and ice cover in these areas then surely the likelihood of high pressure developing to the north and east in favourable positions to enable Atlantic depressions to undercut the UK is that much greater. Also for those of us in the East and Southeast north easterly winds are good for producing snow showers picked up over a comparatively warm North Sea.
I will be keeping a lookout on the RSPB website and other sources to see if our feathered friends migrate early in numbers to our shores,
My prediction based on nothing particularly scientific is that we we will have for the next fortnight or so fairly cold interludes with snow over high ground in the north, with a possibly a little of the white stuff further south if the precipitation is heavy enough, between milder more settled periods.
Beyond then I believe from the middle of the second week of December until Christmas Eve the weather will term settled with high pressure over us dominating the weather and with night time fog and frost dominating. Should the fog be stubborn to clear temperatures will be suppressed to below freezing, otherwise temperatures will be marginally below average. From Christmas Eve until the end of the month we will have more unsettled weather but with higher temperatures crossing the country from the west and with gales.
January I feel will be the most interesting of the months and it will be dependent where a new area of high pressure establishes. If it is to the Southeast of us it will be disappointment all round but if it is to the north east it will be favourable to an entrenched cold spell with snow showers in eastern counties and perhaps more general snow in the south at times. The month will as always have mild incursions as Atlantic depressions try to barrel across the UK. Some will succeed but others will be forced to undercut.
February is going to go one of two ways and knowing our luck it will not be favourable for coldies. The favoured option would be for the high to the northeast to retrograde towards Greenland and for a direct Northerly to be established and not a two day "toppler".
The other less attractive option is for the high pressure to retreat eastwards and for the Atlantic to take charge with a progression of depressions with accompanying heavy rain and gales.
Perhaps we will have an alternation of both. With the coldest weather in the first half of the month.
March has in recent years been a late winter month rather than an early spring. I expect that trend to continue.
My thoughts are probably completely out of kilter with what becomes reality but it will be interesting for me to see how far out with my predictions.
Kind Regards
Dave
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As usual this is a wonderful thread to read for someone like me who is no expert but finds it fascinating to see how the seasons change and differ from year to year.
Please excuse my ignorance but I would like to ask a question. With the increased melting of snow in particular in the arctic in recent years, would this dilute the salinity of the water and are we now in a situation that it is now easier for it to refreeze? Is this so insignificant to have no impact?
Ice melt, I guess, would not have the same effect as it would be saline.
Kind regards
Dave
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1 hour ago, jon snow said:
Looking further ahead, the cfs 0z says Christmas Day will be cold! …well, that would make a pleasant change wouldn’t it!?…
Sadly not so for Knocker, but Sid should be happy.
I like seasonal weather for Christmas Day but all too often the Festive period from Christmas Eve to New Years Eve is often mild.
Boxing Day 1962 is one day I will never forget. I was 15 at the time
Kind Regards
Dave
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I am far from an expert weather wise but avidly read the various threads on this wonderful website. What strikes me to an untutored eye is that, according to the thread dedicated to snow and ice in the Northern Hemisphere, ice and snow build up are ahead of the game compared to previous years and the longer term charts do appear to show, as fickle as they may be, a lot of high pressure to the north east of us. Of course there is no guarantee that the current conditions up in the arctic will prevail or the longer term models will continue the trend, but early indications are certainly encouraging.
What I also like this year is the abundance of berries and rose hips. There is the question as to whether nature knows better than us and is preparing for a harsh winter, or the current abundance merely reflects the conditions that have gone before.
Only time will tell, but for one I certainly enjoy the ride, with if you will excuse the pun highs and lows aplenty.
Kind Regards
Dave
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20 minutes ago, HammerJack said:
Same here in SW Essex. All stopped now though!
Just gone through mid Essex too, I am still drying out from the football match yesterday. I was on car park duty after helping to set up the ground and stewarding during play. Also I put fencing and dugouts away post match. Never in my 74 years have I been so soaked to the skin. As soon as I got home I had to remove all my wet clothing in the porch as I would have been dripping rainwater throughout the house and the boss was not keen on that happening, bless her,
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I am not looking forward to tomorrow. Tomorrow Chelmsford City entertain Enfield Town in the FA Cup. I am City's Safety Officer as well as a volunteer steward and have to be at the ground by midday to ready the ground for the match. As we lease the ground from the City Council and have a running track circling the pitch that means we have to place matting across the track so that footballers' boots do not damage it as well as fencing to direct them onto the pitch. We also have to install fencing for each match to behind both goals to direct spectators across the running track to the stands behind the goals. That completed we then have to bring to pitch side portable dugouts to ground anchor to secure them. With tomorrow's weather forecast of heavy rain and very strong, gusty winds the installation of matting fencing and dugouts will be very challenging to put it mildly. Also in spite of being anchored down the design of the dugouts makes them very aero-dynamic and are prone to pull the anchors out of their concreted housings.
I usually look forward to matchdays but tomorrow is an exception. What is the likelihood of the forecast being over pessimistic?
Kind Regards
Dave
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As it was my birthday on Sunday, my wife and I travelled down to Weston-super-Mare thst day and stayed at a hotel near the front until yesterday. We were extremely fortunate with the weather as it was dry every day with lots of sunshine and it felt very warwhen sheltered from a moderate breeze. We had rain one night, but we were asleep and so it did not affect us. The weather was certainly much better than at home and a lot better than a long weekend break we had in Norfolk, near Hemsby, in early August during which we endured heavy rain every day.
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Another dull dry day here in mid Essex. Yesterday was the only day for some time in which we had some sun, although it was hardly wall to wall. I keep telling myself tomorrow will be better, but thus far it has not really been the case.
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Here in Essex the weather has not been at its summer best this year. Even when most of the rest of the country are enjoying decent weather we have been plagued with cloud. Yesterday we went to Clacton on Sea and it was cloudy until about 6 pm and very breezy. We had a couple of heavy showers whilst on the beach and got drenched to the skin. The weather forecast on my phone app stated cloudy with a little drizzle, but it was a lot worse than that,
Even today sun is in very short supply. It will be interesting at the end of the summer to hear what our sunshine levels compared to other years along with rainfall totals.
After all this rubbish we will probably have a decent autumn now. Here's hopingt.
Kind Regards
Dave
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Just got home from a long weekend with the family near Hemsby and can understand why in normal times people prefer to go abroad. Friday started with rain in the morning but the afternoon was reasonable. Saturday, Sunday and today, torrential downpours driven by strong winds and only a few bright intervals. We have all been soaked to the skin on three consequetive days. Driving back visibility was so poor with the rate and intensity of rain everyone was being sensible and travelling slowly.
With the poor weather, cost of caravan (twice what we paid last year_ welcome to Rip Off Britain), the fish and chip shop on site and the Launderette both shut (the former for staff shortages, the latter for technical fault (one that has taken at least 4 days to rectify), an oven in the caravan, where the door did not close properly (I had to hold my foot against the door to ensure it was completely shut for about 35 minutes (found out earlier after 45 minutes a shepherds pie was still cold, especially in the middle), and a door in toilet/shower room that fell off as it was only leanin in place.
When I left this afternoon the oven has still not been sorted.
Finally my wife took our grandson and his friend to the outside pool and when it startle to drizzle lightly one of the attendants demanded everyone got out as they didn't want to get wet. One couldn't make it up.
Gosh I feel much better now after a good moan.
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58 minutes ago, Harry said:
While unlikely, if the Chelmsford storm can hold together it’ll come very close to here…outside chance it will however
Hello Harry- What Cherlmsford storm? I live 2 miles from the City centre and so far we have had just a few spots of rain. It is very dark and all my solar lights have come on in the garden but no thunder or lightning.
About 3 o'clock it was very dark to the north and west of us and there was occassional rumples of thunder in the distance but so far that is it. My weather App says 80% chance of rain but I am not over-confident we will have much rain let alone a storm.
Kind Regards
Dave
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Storm towards my north/northwest in the Dunmow/Stansted direction. It looks as if it will just miss us.
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1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:
Difficult to say except your area will be on the frontal boundary for most of the day, and subsequently will be at high risk of showers or longer spells of rain. Unfortunately the models seem to be struggling with how this actually pans out at the moment with anything from close to nothing to a few inches of rain over the weekend.
As for today, clear skies so far and now just a gentle south easterly breeze. 26c at midday.
Many thanks.
There is still hope then that I may not have to sleep in the shed on Saturday night.
Kind Regards
Dave
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Perhaps Captain Shortwave or someone equally knowledgeable could give an indication as to what the weather will be like on Saturday afternoon in Mid Essex. We have friends visiting and I have planned a BBQ. My phone App says 76% rain on Saturday but does not say what time rain is expected.
My wife is not best pleased with me for choosing this weekend with uncertain weather, so any glimmer of hope would be greatly appreciated.
Kind Regards
Dave
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A much better day here in mid Essex than I thought it would be seeing the various forecastes. The sun is still managing to shine albeit weakly through increasing cloud moving in from the south/southwest although it still feels warm and humid. Tomorrow does not too great though, but recent days I have noticed the predicted rainfall has been greater than what actually fell. Yesterday, for example was little more than nuisance drizzle.
Not sure whether to go for a quiet drink in a pub or Is there anything on TV worth watching tonight?
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3 hours ago, Surrey said:
Hi Dave,
See below of a few here I have at the nursery
This is just some of the stock I have here out of 100s..
The trick is to plant it with a barrier if you don't want it to take over. Trench out then line with a good strong weed barrier NOT A CHEAP ONE! This stops the roots spreading..
We have Jasmine and all sorts now as well and I can apply a 15% discount to any order to lovely Net weather people HAHA!
Hello Surrey.
Do you have a website or catalogue?
Kind Regards
Dave
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37 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Well this forecast for today looks to be a busy already with rain moving it's way in from the southeast .
Hello Mark,
Trust you and the family are well.
Yes agree it is very dismal today and certainly not one for going to the beach.
Kind Regards
Dave
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Storm Eunice - 18th February
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Yes they were all tragedies and I am not attempting to play them down in any way, but could it be with the 1987 it happened at night and the death toll would have been so much higher if it had been higher if it had peaked during daylight hours.
We suffered an enormous amount of damage in Essex. At the time I worked for Essex County Council in the Property Services Department and I had to produce a report to committee the cost of repairs to schools, elderly persons homes and other county council owned establishments. The total cost if memory serves me right was over £100m. With winds of that ferocity being a rarity buildings had not been designed to face such a force and 3 schools lost their roofs. Would have as much damage been sustained in areas more accustomed to such extremes and the buildings designed to withstand such wind strength?