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claret047

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Posts posted by claret047

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    What a horrible day. It looks like we have a few more hours of this to endure and tonight we could have a lot of fog about with all this dampness. Earlier this morning I walked over my lawn to the top of my garden to feed the birds and it was the squelchiest (if there is such a word) I can ever recall and we have lived here since 1972.

    Yesterday we felt quite festive in spite of the dull drizzly weather as we had two Christmas cards arrive. one of which had been posted by a friend who lives in South Woodham Ferrers on 3 December.  Apparently there are at least 100 postal workers in the Chelmsford area either with Covid or self-isolating.

    In addition my wife went to our local Aldi and as she went towards the checkout to pay for her purchases she noted that their were plum (with pink gin) Christmas puddings in a dump on special offer of 9p.

    We  enjoyed it as our sweet yesterday evening. Perhaps we should have also got the Christmas Crackers we had not used out of the loft and gone the whole hog.

    Hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    • Like 4

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    12 hours ago, winterfreak said:

    So, ahem, I struggle to keep up with the actual trend in the MOD thread. Up one minute, down the next. So, does anyone know in roughly which direction we’re going? Still a possibility of cold and maybe some of the white gold we chase so diligently?!? 

    According to the MAD Thread we will be snowed in on the 20th, but on the 21st we will be outside with our BBQ's as everything will have moved too far west or too far east!!

    • Like 7

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 hour ago, nanu said:

    Never go in there!  Tonight it will be rattlers being thrown out of prams because the models have all u turned, seen it so many times. I wait till I see the first snow flakes, then cautiously take a peek. 

    I would jolly well hope that "rattlers" would be thrown out of a pram. They could kill a baby, although not likely to see any in the UK, unless in a zoo!

    Agree with you though that the Mad thread is at times insane, but I guess that is why I love it. I find it great to see it ebb and flow twixt joy unbounded to people almost on suicide watch, whilst others try their hardest to troll. There are however also some great, experienced posters on there who adopt a balanced approach.

    FWIW I believe the models are now picking up a trend to much colder weather by about 20th of the month which could last for several weeks once it becomes encroached with the possibility of heavy snow. Only time will tell if that will be the case, but in the meantime I will enjoy the ride on "the other side".

    If it doesn't work out as I predict I will not be slitting my wrists as there are much more important things to worry about in these troubled times. The thread and this one are, however. a great means of escaping all the current worries and a means of interest when there is not a lot else we can do without going against the spirit of Government guidance.

    Keep safe

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    • Like 8

    Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Snowmut said:

    Although I think lengthy entrenched cold spell is doubtful, I do think we could see some quite memorable or even historic snow events in the not to distant future!

    image.thumb.png.e9ece164ba4cb60c579983f02ec68085.pngimage.thumb.png.703018f52581a0ab487c8e8719a7415a.pngimage.thumb.png.5322e33847955ab9b24b3184f4282aec.pngimage.thumb.png.83c713c68b6e492160112e2ed119a811.png

    And lets face it Snow is the name of the game!☃️

    Lovely charts. Thanks for posting them. 

    Perhaps you could tell novices like me what draws you to the conclusion that the cold spell if it arrives is likely to be of only a short duration.

    I had always believed that once strong areas of high pressure and the accompanied very cold air in winter time they are very difficult to shift. I am old enough to recall the winter of 1962/3 and the Met Office kept calling an end to the bitter weather, but again and again they were wrong and the very cold conditions remained.

    Many thanks

    Kind Regards

    Dave

     

    • Like 7

    Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, DCee said:

    So far I have beaten every forecaster on the model thread, by simply being realistic and pragmatic with the data.

    Perhaps for us novices you would be kind enough to explain how you have been victorious in respect of  weather events that will or will not happen. To my untutored eyes it looks as if the GFS is still going with prolonging our cold spell and indeed intensifying it while the ECM & UKMO indicate a warming up and to some degree a return to Atlantic domination.  We do not know which is correct, but can only best guess.

    I am old enough to remember the 1962/63 winter and the Met Office continually forecast a return to milder weather, but the USA long range forecasts did not and guess which were correct? 

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    • Like 1

    NETWEATHER WINTER WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 21/12/2020 at 11:25, TomSE12 said:

    Morning all,

    Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

    I have decided to introduce another couple of supplementary Categories.

    CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

    Just the 5 locations in this Category. 

    Predict, with a YAY or NAY, whether it will Snow or not in the Capital Cities of the United Kingdom, and the              Republic of Ireland, during the 24 hours of New Year's Day.

    Please Copy/Paste your predictions with a YAY or a NAY, into the location Boxes provided below:

    CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?).

    BELFAST -  NAY

    CARDIFF - NAY

    DUBLIN - YAY

    EDINBURGH - YAY

    LONDON - NAY

    Your predictions for CATEGORY 8 (New Year's Day Snow?), MUST be posted on this Thread by 9 PM, on Sunday 27th Dec.

    I will post up details of supplementary Category 9  and the Scoring System for Categories 8 and 9, later on Today.

    Regards,

    Tom.     ?️ ?️ ?️ ❄️ 

    Hello Tom,

    Thanks for your reminder. Please find my reply re category 8. I will now locate category 9 to complete.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    And, what with Uppersgate being still unresolved, I'll wait until I see snow blowing past my window!:santa-emoji:

    And you live in a basement.

    Seriously though it all looks very promising from the Big 3 now. I'm really looking forward to see the northerly develop on the charts as the days evolve. It makes really interesting chart watching. Hopefully for once it will fall into place.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    • Like 6

    NETWEATHER WINTER WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hello Tom,

    Apologies for being late to the party but it has been manic at home recently And I have only had chance to look, hoping I am not too late.

    Here are my totally uneducated guesses below:

    CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas)

    Belfast - Yes

    Birmingham - no

    Cardiff - no

    Dublin - yes

    Edinburgh - yes

    Glasgow - yes

    Liverpool - yes

    London - yes

    Manchester - no

    Newcastle - yes

     

    CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day)

    Predict the Max./Min. Temps recorded, during the 24 Hours of New Year's Day, in the South East/East Anglia Region.

    min -4.7

    max  3.2

     

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, West is Best said:

    You do need cold uppers for snow. What was 'produced' yesterday was mostly rain and sleet, especially at low levels. Many of us on here remember the days when snow would fall consistently out of the sky and pile up sufficient snow to wade through and sledge in, even in early December. That's snowfall and you roughly require -5C 850hpA for it to occur in the UK at low altitudes. 

    Here in parts of Essex we had quite a bit of snow which settled in the early hours.

    Next week does not look great apart from high ground for snow and even then it will be in fairly short supply as we seem to be apart from the periphery of the country between areas of low pressure, with fog under lighter winds, especially in the south being a problem and with it being slow to clear suppressing temperatures. Faux cold as some on here gleefully call it. Temperatures will generally remain below average with some night time frosts and with a tendency for the weather to become more unsettled later in the week. Beyond that, although I am far from an expert I do believe it will all be very much on a knife edge and by mid month the colder air will start to make inroads across the North Sea.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    • Like 4

    NETWEATHER WINTER WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 24/11/2020 at 10:33, TomSE12 said:

    I will now flesh out the Format/Scoring System for the NW WINTER WEATHER PREDICTING COMPETITION.

    CATEGORY 1 - (A) -  How many North Atlantic Storms will be named during the 3 Months (DJF), of Winter?    FOUR

                               (B) -  What will the last named North Atlantic Storm be, during the 3 Months (DJF), of Winter? ?   EVERT

    Below, is a list of North Atlantic Storm names for 2020/21:

     image.thumb.png.4a2399214264944bc31cd4e8041d80d4.png

    *NB* - Please remember, that AIDEN has already been used. This was named by Met Eireann on October 30th.

    Only North Atlantic Storms will count that are named by the Met Agencies of the Western Group (Met Office, Met Eireann and KNMI (the National Weather Forecasting service, of the Netherlands).

    There was some confusion back in February, when the Spanish Met Office decided to name a North Atlantic Storm.

    But for the purposes of this Competition, ONLY North Atlantic Storms will count that are named by the UK Met Office, the Irish Met Office, and that of the Netherlands.

    CATEGORY 2 - Predict the first Date of Settling Snow, in the NetWeather, S.E/East Anglia Region.  29 DECEMBER 2020

    Just a dusting will count but NOT Hail. 

    Just to clarify the Boundaries of the South East/East Anglia Region.

    For the purposes of the Competition, the Weather recorded in the ORANGE Area, will count.

    image.png.069293aa3de62157f5ec5141709621b5.png

    CATEGORY 3: - Predict the Lowest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 3 Months of Meteorological Winter (DJF).    -6.3C

    CATEGORY 4: - Predict the Highest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 3 Months of Meteorological Winter (DJF). 16.5C

    CATEGORY 5: - (A) - Predict the Highest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 24 Hours of Christmas Day.  3.2C

                                (B) -  Predict the Lowest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 24 Hours of Christmas Day.  -3.1

    Please Copy/Paste your predictions into the Boxes, provided below.

    *NB* - Category predictions 2, 3, 4 and 5, relate exclusively to the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region.

    CATEGORY 1 - (A) -  How many North Atlantic Storms will be named during the 3 Months (DJF), of Winter? - 

                               (B) -  What will the last named North Atlantic Storm be, during the 3 Months (DJF), of Winter? - 

    CATEGORY 2 - Predict the first Date of Settling Snow, in the NetWeather, S.E/East Anglia Region. - 

    CATEGORY 3: - Predict the Lowest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 3 Months of Meteorological Winter (DJF). -

    CATEGORY 4: - Predict the Highest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 3 Months of Meteorological Winter (DJF). -

    CATEGORY 5: - (A) - Predict the Highest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 24 Hours of Christmas Day. - 

                                (B) -  Predict the Lowest Temperature that will be recorded in the Netweather, S.E./East Anglia Region, during the 24 Hours of Christmas Day. -  

    Your predictions for the NW WINTER WEATHER PREDICTING Competition, MUST be posted on this Thread by, 9 PM on Monday, November 30th.

    Thank you.

    In a short while, I will post up the Scoring System I will use for this Competition.

    It will be very similar to the one I was using for that unfinished Competition, back in February.

    Regards,

    TomSE12  ?️ ?️ ?️ ❄️

    Good Morning Tom

    Re our recent messages between us.

    Please find my predictions in enbolded text next to reach category above.

    • Like 1

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Good Morning everyone.

    A very interesting day yesterday.

    My wife & I had a weekend break in a caravan up near Hemsby in Norfolk. Yesterday morning started sunny but just before we left to return home at about 10 a.m. it had completely clouded over. We decided to go via Wroxham on the way home and just after we parked there it started to rain lightly, with occasional heavier bursts. In the end as it was so cool (15C) and unpleasant we decided to cut our losses and go home. The light rain continued on and off for about two thirds of the journey home, but as we travelled more into Essex the weather brightened and the rain had stopped. The temperature had risen too with my car showing 22C. It had not rained at all there and the front must have died a death as it went through later with just residual cloud.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Jamiee said:

    UPDATE TO STORM MAP:
    SVR NOW OVER SE ENGLAND & EA WITH A WIDENED MDR ZONE

    image.thumb.png.5198e54560cd0ae97f1311a9ead4c869.png

     

    Apologies for being "thick" but does the map indicate a moderate risk of storms or a risk of moderate storms in intensity?

    Not wishing to be too greedy after the incredible rainfall I experienced yesterday but a repeat today would be interesting. I guess the blob should be about 10 miles southwest to its southern limits for me to enjoy the possibility of a repeat of yesterday's experience.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    • Like 1

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

      "51 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

    Very heavy rain up in Chelmsford currently, just seen a video of one of the main shopping centres flooding. And yet here, about 12 miles away, we’ve had barely any rain today, so it’s all very localised"

    I can testify to that. As my 91 year old uncle is unwell I popped over to Writtle to see him. I left about 4 O'clock and had difficulty leaving his house down the footpath to my car. I then drove the 4 miles to my house in North Springfield which took over 30 minutes. All the local roads and main roads were flooded and meant crawling through the deep water. It was particularly bad at the start of the Chelmer Valley route at the junction with Rectory Road and is not helped by the roadworks currently in place.

    The intensity of the rain resulted in the worst flash flooding for a number of years.

    It has now stopped.

    At least I won't have to water my allotment this evening.

    It still feels oppressingly humid.

    The above is a post I made on the Storm & Convective Thread about half an hour ago which I have emboldened to add to the comments from Thunderstruck.

    After a dry period of about 45 minutes it has just started raining again but not as heavy as earlier, at least not yet.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by claret047

    30 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

    Very heavy rain up in Chelmsford currently, just seen a video of one of the main shopping centres flooding. And yet here, about 12 miles away, we’ve had barely any rain today, so it’s all very localised

    I can testify to that. As my 91 year old uncle is unwell I popped over to Writtle to see him. I left about 4 O'clock and had difficulty leaving his house down the footpath to my car. I then drove the 4 miles to my house in North Springfield which took over 30 minutes. All the local roads and main roads were flooded and meant crawling through the deep water. It was particularly bad at the start of the Chelmer Valley route at the junction with Rectory Road and is not helped by the roadworks currently in place.

    The intensity of the rain resulted in the worst flash flooding for a number of years.

    It has now stopped.

    At least I won't have to water my allotment this evening.

    It still feels oppressingly humid.

     

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