claret047
-
Posts
3,566 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
3
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by claret047
-
-
40 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
ECM is ridiculous this morning.
850s up at 15c by Saturday. Going by the GFS ensemble and GEM output this morning, it's pretty clear the ECM OP is going to be off the scale for a hot outlier. As nice as it may look to summer fans like myself, got to be as unbiased as possible!
Hell Mb.
A very interesting chart. If it did come off what temperature would we expect to experience here in the southeast?
-
3
-
-
My wife and I, middle son, daughter in law and 3 year old grandson went to the National Flower Show at Hylands Park, Chelmsford today. (if the name seems familiar it is where the V festival used to be held. It was an enjoyable afternoon although it was ruined somewhat by the weather. We had just arrived for the afternoon session and queuing to enter when it became very dark and the wind got up. It was accompanied by driving drizzle which made sign in very challenging. The paper tickets which the steward was attempting to scan were becoming very soggy as were we!
The afternoon was interspersed between cloudy and dry and dull and drizzly, with the wind really gusting at times and blowing some of the taller plants for sale over. It also became very chilly in the wind as the afternoon wore on.
Looking at the MAD thread it looks as though later next week the weather may improve. Hopefully that well be the case.
I see the new modern garden features are rusty looking things. Old watering cans and small tin baths at outragous prices and if you wanted a rusty areoplane about 2 feet long with a propellor be prepared to shell out £60. I resisted the temptation. Some of the stuff in all honesty I have thrown out in a better condition!
-
2
-
-
52 minutes ago, steveh19 said:
Yes I saw that earlier too. By the BP garage. Was crazy. Very windy out. I went for a walk along the seafront last night and it was a struggle.
Stroudley said
" Meanwhile, the 2nd fence panel has just been come down from the neighbour's fence..."
That is a long way for the fence panels to travel!
Seriously though the weather here is absolutely dire. There is the 3 day National Flower festival that has begun today at Hylands Park, Writtle, here in Mid Essex. Although there will be some undercover facilities much on display will be outside. I and my family have booked to attend on Sunday afternoon, hoping that the rain forecast does not arrive until late evening, although knowing my luck I would not bank on it.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
1
-
-
Rained on and off all evening and at times overnight after a thoroughly dismal day and was still raining when I got up this morning. Stopped raining about 9 a.m., but still cloudy.
-
We have had continuous rain, heavy at times for almost all of the day. Certainly very different to what Carol K was showing on her graphics this morning where we were not even in the area for rain and her telling us what there was being slowly moving south.
At least it is doing my allotment some good and I will not have to go there this evening to water.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
On 19/04/2021 at 20:34, Midlands Ice Age said:
The 'final' report of the 2020 - 2021 northern hemisphere snow and ice refreeze season from me.
As per the last few years the ice volume has reached its peak in mid April, and is now firmly retreating - the signal to me that refreeze has ended.
The maximum reached in the last month was the 6th lowest.
Snow cover is still in a reasonable state after several colder episodes recently in both N Europe and N America .
Masie reached a maximum of 14,874K KM2 on March 9th, and has now fallen away to 13,857K Km2 today 18/4.
Recently Northerly winds have pushed the ice pack in the Central basin back to the 80 degree line and even south of Svalbard.Before this happened extent had dropped quite quickly to 13,635K Km2 during the earlier part of April.
Overall, an average refreeze season for the last 10years (with a slow start, a rapid refreeze in the middle, and a distinctly average last 6 weeks) with the average position being about the 5th to 8th lowest for large periods, during that time.
None the less an interesting winter season.
Hopefully see every one healthily and safely back for the next refreeze season in September..
MIA
Hello there.
I trust you and your family are well.
Many thanks to you, BFTV and others for making this thread so very interesting. I am sure others concur with me.
I can hardly wait for late Autumn when the thread comes back to life again.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
7
-
-
Good evening folks,
Cold here and we have had the occasional light shower, but hardly enough to dampen the ground. The nagging north easterly wind makes it feel bitter out in the open. Will it ever warm up?
Hopefully next week will be better. Our central heating has gone wrong and we have a heating engineer coming to sort it out next Thursday. (It has been a problem that previous engineers have been unable to resolve and going on for about 2 years, although until now it had been working, albeit unreliably.) My guess is after Thursday the weather will warm up. In the meantime we will be using a small fan heater to warm the living room and wrapping up well.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
4
-
-
3 hours ago, Andypvfc said:
Exactly. What epic winter. . 0 cm of Snow this week, and only minus 5 last night, which was supposed to be the coldest night of Winter. If this week was epic, I dread to think what Boring would be like
Living in Stoke perhaps.* Unfortunately the world does not revolve around the Potteries and some area in particular Eastern Scotland, parts of Northern England and some areas of East Anglia and Southeast England have done better than they have for many years.
It does sadly look as though come the end of the weekend even the most easterly parts will be under milder air, with only the outside chance of a return to colder the second week after as a Scandi High attempts to build. Winter might be over, but it is too early to be definite in that assumption.
*Joke alert.
-
5
-
-
1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:
I'm in that gap showing on the radar and the sun has come out! It does make everywhere look lovely mind.
10.00
Pardon my ignorance Malcolm but what is that red squiggly line running from the North Sea then across the Essex/Suffolk border?
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, JamesL said:
This will change today.
Overnight models all have the breakdown now at the weekend with none showing a cold week next week
Things have trended the wrong way today and there is no route back
So enjoy the next 2-3 days!
You may well be correct as this is the usual default winter position in the UK. On the other hand until the last two runs there was no turning back from further significant cold streaming in from the east. Carol K this morning was convinced the mild would be repelled over the weekend and make little progress into the UK.
Call me Mr Positive but there is always a route back.
At the moment snowing quite heavily here and hopefully is set to do so for as few more hours.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
2
-
-
2 hours ago, Malarky said:
Apologies for the off topic reply, however, decent convective snowfall so far here today in Nottinghamshire. Feeling hopeful for the runs later today.
Hello Malarky.
Be careful what you wish for.
There is nothing worse than suffering with "the runs" Make sure you wear bicycle clips just to be on the safe side!
Seriously though and back on topic the weather in the short term looks good for eastern most counties and from Thursday onwards those in more southwestern parts could join in with the fun with a more organized band of snow away from coasts and particularly with elevation. This is when the uncertainty increases. Will the mild weather plough through. will in the eastern half of the UK although the uppers are warmer with a feed of lower level air off a freezing continent remain very cold and dry, followed by an even colder plunge from the east northeast?
I guess it all depends on the formation and location of high pressure to the north and east of the UK, especially a Scandinavian High which is currently being mooted as a possibility.
What do the more expert on here think will happen? What is their current view as to where FI is?
Kind Regards
Dave
-
1
-
1
-
-
55 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
50p Flakes Now 6/10
You are so lucky. It is all very light snizzle, here in the northern outskirts of Chelmsford. Most disappointing and it appears to be brightening up a bit now. It was a good job I didn't tell my 3 year old grandson it was going to snow as he would be very disappointed.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
55 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Thanks John..is the hill near here..?
Is it High Beach or High Beech. I remember being involved with a construction project at the school some years ago and discussed this with the head teacher, even she was uncertain. It would certainly be a beautiful place to seek out a winter's scene.
Not weather related but I possess a book about non league football grounds that are no more. It included an article on one at High Beach (Beech) and the ground o0wns the record for the most people attending the football ground. It was not for football but for speedway in its heyday.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
1
-
-
54 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
Cheers Claret (I assume your name is WHU related rather than the wine????)
I'm out towards Danbury, so a few miles east of you.
My name is football related, but it refers to Chelmsford City. I am a life long supporter and the Club's Safety Officer as well as their Covid Officer. We should have a match on Monday evening at home to Billericay Town, what are the chances weather wise of it going ahead?
Kind Regards
Dave
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, Ice Day said:
Having a hefty hail storm here, everything is going white.... not for the last time this week hopefully
Where in Chelmo are you?
Up in north Springfield we have had nothing
BTW I love reading your positive but at the same time realistic posts.
Kind regards
Dave
-
1
-
-
38 minutes ago, Number 23 said:
Ooh - I'm within a gnat's chuff of the amber area.
Expect more updates though!
I am not sure if I am or not. I seem to be on the line. Where are you?
-
1 hour ago, moogyboobles said:
Ooh, it's quite possible you were at school with my dad then.
My first snow story would be 1979, when my mum used to tell about when I was born it always starts with how they were knee deep in snow outside St. Johns.
I don't think I am being biased thinking I had quite a snowy childhood, compared to my children's time.
Hello there.
Did your father attend what was then known as Westlands Secondary Modern, but today is called Hylands School?
-
1
-
-
Many thanks for all those recollections of the 1962/3 winter as they bring back a flood of memories to me. At the time I lived in Writtle, near Chelmsford and attended the local secondary school. I lived in a council house built just after the end of WW1- under the "homes fit for heroes" government initiative.
The council decided our houses needed upgrading both internally and externally and had removed all the pebble dash from our house just before Christmas. It was possible to see daylight through the gaps between bricks. With the onset of the very cold weather on Boxing Day and it lasting for many weeks it was not possible because of the ambient temperature to replace the pebble dash. It was absolutely perishing cold indoors. In the mornings we had to break the ice in the toilet bowl and the inside of the windows were covered in ice.
It was certainly not a pleasant experience doing my homework in my bedroom.
When we returned to school from our Christmas break the weather did not relent. The school adjoined fields with crops of cabbages. Pigeons were desperate for food and devastating the crops. The farmer decide to start shooting them and many dead and injured birds were landing in the school grounds, This was very upsetting for the children and the farmer agreed to stop the killing.
I can remember going home each night to listen to the weather forecast on the BBC Home Service (Radio 4 would be today's equivalent) and the presenter would state on numerous occasions that in the outlook- milder weather coming in from the southwest would win out. but it did not happen and the US long range forecasts that predicted the severe would be long lasting proved correct.
Are we due a severe spell? Things are looking up in that respect but as it is starting fairly late in the winter it would not be of such longevity.
I will be glued to the 16.00 and 18.00 model output.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
5
-
-
8 minutes ago, southbank said:
7th 8th February 1991 I’m sure , the Thursday /Friday had the heaviest fall in london since 87 then Saturday had scattered showers
You are probably correct. My youngest son's birthday is on 8th February and we had invited some of his friends for his 3rd birthday party, but several were unable to attend due to the deep snow,
Looking at the GFS, GFDS// and UKMO it all looks almost too good to be true. Let us hope the ECM starts to join in with good charts too in a little while.
Kind regards
Dave
-
1
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
MAD thread you nailed it Dave, certain posters which were at time really hyping up December and then January someone from Crewe and then they change their tune when things actually could go right this time I despair.
Hello Daniel.
Thanks for your comment
I tried to "like" your post, but for some reason I was unable to do so.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
3
-
1
-
-
Good afternoon everyone.
An absolutely horrible day here in mid Essex. As the song goes "What a difference a day makes" Yesterday was warm enough to sit outside without a coat on to eat lunch on our patio, sheltered from the breeze by our garden shed. Today it has been relentless light rain and a blustery wind.
Between 11.30 and 12.30 I took part in the RSPB Bird Watch, getting an aerial view of the garden from our bedroom window. The weather was obviously too dire for the majority of birds to venture out as I only had 1 blackbird, 1 blue tit, 2 collared doves and 4 woodpigeons visit my garden in the whole hour.
To cheer myself up I looked at the MAD thread, but without success. Some posters are either in wind-up mode or can't hell themselves from being negative, although they regard themselves as being realistic.
For some if their were -20 uppers covering 98% of the UK and at T+384 it showed -15 uppers they would declare the run to be a nightmare.
Sadly I am hooked on all the drama and will be checking the 12Z later this afternoon.
If the weather clears at all before nightfall I am thinking of walking down to our local river to see how bad the flooding is, With all the rain we have experienced the ground is totally saturated and cannot soak up any more.
Enjoy the rest of the day.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
9
-
-
1 hour ago, Reefseeker said:
Thank you so much, that is very kind:) Join in on the channel any time with a comment as I try to respond to everyone (the nice ones anyway!). It's a great hobby actually and there are people from all over the world that watch the videos - it's almost like an international pen pal club, for modern times!
It's grey and raining here.....:(
Sorry this is not weather related, but my son has just started his own channel called Travelling Everard and he has done walks around Cambs/Beds + 1 in London where he was earlier doing a site survey. All this of course before the last Lockdown happened. I will get him to look at your channel as he is interested in this sort of thing.
Getting back on topic. Here in mid Essex we have a lot of flooding over the fields and the parks are too muddy to walk in apart from the footpaths on which you have to walk around the puddles.
I am looking forward to seeing how the forthcoming cold spell unfolds. There is a general consensus among the models that it is going to happen, but whether it is a polar blast or a BFTE is uncertain. On the MAD thread there are the usual suspects who wish to pour hot water (not cold!) on what the models show and look to likely ways it will break down, before it has even arrived.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
2
-
-
To the more learned on here is there a way to calculate the temperature at ground level, should we ever be fortunate enough to have -24 @ 850 as currently shown on the charts to our northeast well into FI? I like to dream!
Many thanks
Kind Regards
Dave
-
Still fairly dull here, although hard surfaces dried overnight. Hopefully the sun will make an appearance about noon as forecast. Looking forward to tomorrow and seeing snow on the ground.
As far as the further outlook is concerned hope springs eternal and we may be on the cusp of colder weather after the 20th. The MOD thread is getting excited again, but by tonight the Prozac will be consumed by the handful as a trend back to milder conditions at +500 hours makes an appearance and the mild rampers state it as a definite to happen.
Going out for a walk shortly as it is nice to just get out of the house for a short time and will definitely do so tomorrow if it snows.
Stay safe.
Kind Regards
Dave
-
1
-
South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards
in Regional
Posted
Cloudy and drizzly here again today, It was better late yesterday afternoon when we had a few sunny intervals.
BTW how do you keep your bamboo in check. I have heard it can be very invasive and difficult to control? In fact a bit like "her indoors"
Kind regards
Dave