snow drift

I wish I could agree with you but they are very different at a short time frame that one run isn't going to tell you everything. Couple that with all the uncertanty that there is. Just to illustrate. ECM at T192.

Agreed but ECM moving towards GFS, more than the other way round. Don't get me wrong, I am in no way saying it a done deal but not what I wanted to see. ECM has more of a battle ground look which in turn would be good for some but not a country wide event.

I am not surprised at the confusion. The ECM is not going to be to most peoples liking. Cold pushing East as Atlantic has more of an influence. Toys and pram for the next few pages. Good luck mods.

Unfair question I guess but which option moving into next week would you see as most likely? Won't hold you to it clearly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well ECM gives a different view to last night and if it were to happen in that way most would be very happy as I am sure most like to see snow rather than just cold. Whats more from T240 there is much potential. Lets hope it still followings this trend come 6.00 this evening.

I would love to see UKMO at T168 to see where it went from there.

Agreed. Main difference is that at T168 PV not split. Good run but I would like to see GH for the cold to keep coming.

Or maybe not. T168 is very different to last run. So good short term, long term much to decided.

One thing to keep in our minds at the moment is what IF said about the lowest amount of confidence the Meto have in terms of the model output. Should the runs be good or poor. Latest GFS not as good longer term due to lack of heights building to NW. UKMO at T144 looks good. Which ever way the ECM goes will not be decisive as FI is about T72 for me and the GH being modeled to be there or not is out of this time scale.

From the right to the left in a week if the ECM is correct. Thats a 16 degree difference in uppers for some areas. Its called a SUKC sudden UK cooling.

ECM non to shabby. T168. Going to be some happy viewers this morning.

ECM upto T144 is not flat compared to previous runs. The potential from there is great. Only one run but that will do for starters.

The problem with the written word I guess. I am not suggeting people should not discuss the output but if you look back over the last few pages you will see that people are telling us that it will/won't be cold. The point was that we are not sure with much to be resolved. It is misleading to many when we are told that the we will miss out yet the back ground indicators suggest there is a strong possibility of cold reaching our shores. Appologises to all who thought I was going off on one.

Why are people guessing at the result of the SSW when no one knows the result for us? Why do we need to be told that it won't be good for us, When no one Knows? Why is the GFS wrong and ECM right, when no one knows? To many people want to make a judgement in the hope that they can say told you so. There is more chance of cold now than there has been due to various indicators, so lets see how it pans out. I think everyone knows we may miss out but..... Lets see where we go from here and learn as we go.

Thats looking interesting.

After an interesting discussion between two well respected posters, this is the result. These conversations/ discussions aide my learning. It also shows to many that you can have a disagreement without being rude and insulting. By the way, have a look at the ens, they are heading down with some interesting ones to say the least.

There is changes over Canada at this time range which is a good example of how output is going to be Volitile moving forward.

This is going to be interesting to watch unfold. The thought of watching the charts from T384 and get closer and closer then happen would be great. If they do then this winter will be remembered. If they don't then this winter will also be remembered but not fondly by many. As good runs are shown and then not so good runs, I just hope for the sanity of most that people will take note of what JH and others have said for many a year. Look at the trends. For all Newbies, let the confusion begin. Not only will the output show volatility from run to run but so will many a poster. If you are able to look at the output and then view why people are calling it good/ bad etc you can learn a great deal. This will enable you in the future to look at the models and draw your own thoughts, rather than hanging on everyone’s word. From personal experience it is better to try and learn than let your emotions be driven by someone saying its great or not. This charts will please many. For all newbies, have a good look at it and try and workout why. Remember though it is 384 hours away. In weather terms a light year. But something to look for in future runs. Then we could call it a trend.

Daily drive through standing water and daily sprint from car to office complete. I have decided that from now the UKMO is the model of choice. Why? It only goes to T144 and therefor I need not look at another 240 hours of the same!!! There maybe some benefit in doing what I have said in jest because if the Strat plays ball, then we may see a change. If it does not, then as the NH looks and the pressure near or over us, Jan will be a long month. So, lets hope that we see the change in the Strat and this feeds down and it falls in the right place. If so I will happily view 384 hours of charts showing the possible cold that may hit us. Looking at the output can be like a rollercoaster, at the moment a bolt has come off and the thing is stuck at the begining of the ride. We need the Strat to fix it and we can start the ride again.

I Guess this is why the more experienced are starting to get enthusiastic. The differences in the NH at T192 are profound. The ECM having a less of PV which enables the pressure in the Atlantic to ridge further north and hence more of a block to the onslaught from the west?

After driving to the office through yet more standing water and getting soaked running from the car, the thought of high pressure building and sitting over us for a period of time is appealing. This from someone who loves cold. The current thunderstorm at least gives a bit more interest. There are some posts from well respected people which seem positive to a change in ten days or so. I guess this is where experience comes into play because after viewing the recent output I see our weather, for the most part, coming from the west. Cold air moving South, occasionally as the winds swing to a more northerly for a period. I hope the posters on here that I have a lot of respect for are correct in their assessment that the potential for cold is growing but for now the thought of dry days will do.

Good morning. I think that the New Forest, down here, should be renamed to the New Swamp. I have never seen so much water just Sat in fields and on roads. Anyway, clearly not great runs if you are looking for cold. In fact they could be described as ugly as Bull Dog licking pooh of a stinging Nettle. However I thought I would post this chart for any Newbies who wonder why we look for blocking to our NW. Have a look at America. Illustrates Blocking and the plunge of cold air, as far down as North Florida.

I hope that is not the case and I expect it not to be. In that the high will clear off. The models are more in tune with the pattern we are in. If it did turn out the way you are suggesting, then I better get the boat out of the sea and put it on the drive to use to get to work.

This was on the ecm this morning. GFS had it but then removed it in later frames, whilst the ECM developed it further. Lets hope GFS follows the lead from the ECM. GFS looks to be following this morning, with what it did with the GH.

Not sure it has. GFS does not develope the pressure as per the ECM and keeps it in situ at T216. Later frames on GFS then remove it, where as ECM develops it further.