snow drift

Thought I would have a look in on your thread to see if people were talking about the next 24/36 hours. Could be something of interest for that period.

Yes, I noticed that. Altho, output from various models is changing its mind more than my Mrs. I have learnt dont argue with it, just go with the current thought process. Applicable to both!!!!!!!!!

This is encouraging. Lets hope ECM is picking up a new trend. Alot of people would like this trend to continue, if only for the fact that there would not be as much rain about.

Hi CC. I think your pre winter thoughts were for a fairly "normal winter". I get the feeling that your posts have this bias which is a shame because in previous years I have found your input brilliant. You seem keen to talk up normal and reluctantly comment when cold is shown, all tho this is your preference I believe. Please revert back to the post style you used to use. I mean no offence with this but miss your more objective posts without the "mild" slant which seems to be used to back up your pre winter thoughts .

Well the crumb of comfort out of the GFS for me, is that out in FI it looks more like the ECM this morning with hieghts being suggested to our NW all tho more north than the ECM. Apart from that and booking to fly to Stockholm, I have little to add.

WOW, if this run was to verify, how much snow in Scandinavia plus strong winds. That would be a 36 hour plus snow fall.

The hunt for cold. More heights to the NW please with the pressure to the NE moving west.Or rubbish charts, so I can get on with some work instead of organising myself around the next set of output that is due out.

Want to know what a battle hardened poster looks like.^^^^^^^^ Love your optimism. For one, I would not count out anything. As IB said the other day some of the FI charts are Bizarre. The height rises to the NW did make me look but the recent disappointments had me saying “gone in 24hrsâ€. Totally illogical but not unreasonable.

This is 5 days before Christmas. The latest period should teach us that things change quickly. I understand the temptation after dissapointment to then write off the next few weeks.

Morning all. Not the best looking charts, if a sustained period of cold is what you are wishing for. I can not see a big turn around at this time which is hard to take considering we had what looked like a period of sustained cold. Then the output gave us hope of the East fighting back, only for this to retreat back East too. So we are where we are with output that could be worse but not what most would want to see. Notice on a few posts that the METO are getting a bit of stick for taking their time to update their forecasts but who could blame them really. To my mind, in this period of uncertantiy and the output fliping all over the place, they have waited for more detail and then changed it. How many people said 24/48 hours ago, that they would not want to make a forecast given the output at that time?

And who is to say that the current trend wont continue and it improves further!! Come on Frosty, give us your thoughts.

To me, this is why this thread is fun. Always posts charts T200 plus always calls it F1 instead of FI. Using precipitation charts sooo far down the line. Sure you will get posts saying "come on, that’s miles in the future" but for me this is what this thread is all about. The cold spell next week was picked up by charts T240. Yes it has changed but was still picked up. I am not suggesting that the charts you have posted will be as they are suggested but input should be welcomed. Shame IF has decided not to post anymore as it adds to the tapestry that is the thread. The thread is what it has been for years and long may it continue.

Please feel free to correct me if you feel different. I am encouraged by this. The block to NE is moving west. Less energy coming from the NW. PV moved from Canada.

Haven't posted for a couple of days. It has been difficult to comment because the output has swung so much. The last few runs are looking more "stable" as they get a grip with what is happening in the NH. Dissapointed where we went from that ECM, got a great screen saver now, to the here and now. Altho I am encouraged by the later frames. 78/79?

IB has. As he says, it is to do with ste SW coming out of Norway. This was only picked up by the output in the last 12 hours. It may still be there in 12 hours time but would you bet against it being gone?

The block to our NE has gone no where. Come on guys! How bad is this?

ECM has us under minus 8 air for about 120 hrs. All starting in about T72 to T96 hrs. I will take that. Here is a thought, what if the models are underestimating the strength of the Block?

Gosh JS you have upset him. Booked you into a Band B at Fokestone!!!!! So Broad agreement where we are in T120 and that is good news. After, who knows? Compare run to run. Well yesterday's 12z ECM T216 and T240 look a little different to today’s!! So I Guess we can say that is still to be resolved.

At T96 the block to the NE is higher and therefor is not linking with the block to NW. This allows a secondry feature to start to develope over europe. Would someone more knowledgeable than I comment please.

Does this illustrate what you are speaking of?

Yes correct. Stronger easterly?

Dont panic. There is little difference out to T66.

I must be mad. I have just had another view of the ECM and GFS before the next runs come out as I feel they can not be as good can they?

Interesting. Not sure you should post a pm without checking tho.

The caution has to be that this needs to be resolved. All though ukmo has moved more to ECM than the other way round.