snow drift

Agree with your comment about ECM but it is not to disimilar to UKMO at t144. It just depends if the high pressure then heads south as per ECM or takes a different route. Time will tell.

Only one run and prob gone by the 12Z but this is not without interest. Pressure building in NW and the effect on the direction of the flow is marked. More runs needed, GFS goes down a different route. This is more encouraging.

ECM fromT192 could be interesting with the pressure building in the NW.

ECM and GFS at T168. The position of the low makes such a difference. GFS will be what most will want to verify. But will it??

T96 and it is very similar . With little going South of us.It is at this point when the cold backs East on previous runs and I see no reason why it won't again, sadly.

Thanks for the reply and to the others. I wasn't trying to be clever and the output is not without interest. Delayed response due to putting three year old to bed as she wondered what Fartamissmuss, as she calls him, would bring her. Told her not to expect snow. ECM illustrates the patern for the next 7 days or so. North could do ok at times as the lows roll in and the wind swings to a more favourable direction for a time.

Genuine question as I feel I am missing something. I am seeing lows coming at us from the west, skimming across the pressure that is building below us and little to stop them barreling through. What am I missing? Thanks inadvance.

I know some well respected posters are wanting the high to the NE to clear off and then there is little chance of a stalemate leaving us in a SW flow. I am not for this though. I would rather it holding firm or better still moving west. It will require patience if this were to happen but I am not keen on watching low after low heading our way hoping that one will track SE. Keep the pressure to the NE and get some ridging in the Atlantic as per ECM has hinted at. Not that the weather or models will take any notice of anyone's preferance but as this is the discussion thread, this is what I will be looking out for in future runs.

This alone, will cheer some people up. GFS is an improvement. I prefer ECM at this time due to the ridging in the Atlantic but both are better than what we have looked at over the last few days. Interesting.

Christmas eve and the big day. Lets hope it changes. You could be forgiven for thinking they are the 2mTemps!!

Nick said look west in our hunt for cold. "No I can't see any coming our way"

Well done on your prediction for the last at Cheltenham, hope GP took note. As your on a role, whats your thoughts, to progressive?

This demonstrates what a complicated situation this is.

Subtle changes upto here. Its trying to get there.

The models are seeing clearly IMO, it’s just we don't particularly like what they are showing. The ECM, with the lows tracking more southerly, has a chance and the METO have recognised this in their 6-15 outlook. i.e. NE may get hill snow and frost. Gibbys summary is what I would agree with. I have noticed that some would like to see the block to the NE clear off. I would disagree with this. To my mind we will have more chances with it in situ than not there.

Certanily the more logical view but we are cold weather fans and where is the logic in that?! At least it gives us some interest. Has anyone got an example chart where it did track southerly?

Lets just hope that when some decent looking charts start showing that people remember looking at these ones. The NH is still trying to play ball, with much of the season ahead of us, some interesting output will come along. Will it be in two weeks, next month or Feb? No one knows? If nothing comes along, this winter will be remembered but not fondly by most on here. GFS is giving me the hump at the moment!!

He stated that it was gone from the charts on GFS at t384.

T144 Look at the differences to NW. UKMO has not been great at this range but looks a little more interesting than GFS.

Now is not the time for an autopsy. We have lost IF within the thread. Treat people how you would like to be treated.

Just enough in the the output to stop me doing this but close.

Agreed and the ECM for the most part has led the way with this thought. Looking forward to ECM tonight. Prob decided to ramp it up and chuck another low at us just to prove me wrong. Why does the GEM take so long to come out? I need a new F5 key!

LOL

NAE suggest possibilities. 06 GFS precipitation charts would be of interest. That time period, uppers look ok. Don’t get me wrong, not bucket loads but something to feel festive about before low rolls in.