snow drift

Now that would be an impressive block to our NE 1050!!!!!!!! I hope when people wake up and see these charts they haven't just had a mouthful of coffee or there is going to be some coffee splattered computers!!

Easterly at T144 on ECM. GFS is lovely and UKMO coming to join the party but slowly.T168 the time line is moving forward.

This is a good start to the run. It all looks slightly further west and the pressure on the high in the atlantic is not as strong which will help it to maintain its position.

I am sure he will give more detail as and when. If you have a look at JH PDF on what is require for snow and use the latest output from GFS you will see that areas with elevation and north of M4(I hate this term but I think it correct for this) could well see some. I would suggest that Dartmore could also and yes it below the M4.

I would agree. You would like to see pressure rise to NW and the PV to not be so organised over Canada.

ECM throws this in and says "don't panic Mr Mannering!!!!"

In model terms, this is what could be descirbed as the leveller. The patern has not changed much except with everything a bit more East. Clearly this has an impact on the weather we would get.

I was looking at t102 but is the link broken?

I would suggest that upto T102 this run is very similar to the previous run.

To soon to be looking for this kind of detail really but you never know. East side in better position.

I think people need to look at the output. We need clarification of which way it might go at T144. However, we still end up with interesting weather at the end. IMBY is coming into some of the posts which will always have an influence in how the output is portrayed. We have had colder than normal temps. We are in what was described by the BBC as a "mild blip" and we are heading back into below av temps for the foreseeable. Enjoy where we are and see what develops from now. The detail will come in time. T144 from now is the point at which we need clarity and future runs will start to resolve this. I look for deep cold due to my location but if many areas don’t see snow over the next three weeks then this will be a period of model watching that will be remembered for a long time. So much in our favour.

Intrested in peoples thoughts here. This run has the energy going deeper SE and into europe which in turn encourages the pressure to our west to ridge north. This would have a huge impact from there would it not?

Indeed and just goes to show how output can change in the short term let alone the longer term. Interesting that when not much of interest is shown people will write of the next 2/3 weeks and when cold is shown they tell us it won't happen.

Snow!! Lots of great tech posts but you are not sure what the pink blob is?!!!!

This looks full of promise to me. ECM not as bullish as last night, However I would take this so early into the season.

Come on guys, lets go chase the next cold shot!!!!! What can go wrong??!!!

Who gave him that chart??!!!!

Brilliant. I fear for non experienced members. You know this is not resolved yet your post suggests its all over. Very unhelpful to many who read posts to see what might happen moving forward. The energy in the North may win but it also may not. Balanced view would be much appreciated by many, I would suggest.

Where is the Atlantic?

Why, he maybe right. Nothing resolved.

IMO the output is trying to get a handle on the energy up around greenland. Until this is resolved the rest of any run is pointless. This close but if you look at other out put and not just each run I would lean towards the block holding out and the energy going north. Yes its what I want but if I saw it the other way I would say so. What a day of watching we have in front of us. Just seen you have similar thoughts Iceberg.

Trouble is we will now have a hundred posts of guess the snow depth. Guys lets just see what unfolds. If the MET dont know where that system is going to go, how can anyone be sure. Want to know why this is a great hobby. Because in situations like this it is exciting.

Look at the diferences at T144. Hang fire with "this it". IF the energy from the NW is being overdone then much will change. It effects the whole run afterwards. The METO are not sure if the block will hold. Yet as daft as it is to talk about snow depths on Sat it is daft to say thats it.

Very true. Gibby's Fi starts earlier than most I would suggest. Not bad!! .