PMPhotography
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Posts posted by PMPhotography
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Well, i said i wouldn't moan!
Temp 3.6C with Humidity at 67% giving a Dew Point of -1.7C. Ground wet so it must have rained in the last hour or so.
Still concerned about Monday and any snow turning to sleet or rain at the end of the day.
Does anyone know when the NMM / NAE model runs next? (Hopefully it was just a blip!).
Or i could just hope this is right!
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Yorkshire snow shower HEAVEN!
UKMO 12z is shaping up nicely for the whole of yorkshire!
Look at the iso northern chart on my post above. Yorkshire stays in the snow line all day! then rushes west again
Is there any -50C uppers there? Seems that's what we need to get snow on the coast!!
Does that snowline you talk of include the east coast? The forecasts i see are showing sleet now down the coast.
Would love to have an event where i could look forward to seeing snow worry free. Perhaps i should move inland!
I'll stop moaning now.
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I wish the piggin locations were back on. Trying to figure IMBYism's in the MOD thread is near impossible now. MO location forecast now showing snow turning to sleet here on Monday and rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A bit disappointing to be honest. Hey ho plenty of time for change!
WOW! My wish instantly came true! haha!
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I wish the piggin locations were back on. Trying to figure IMBYism's in the MOD thread is near impossible now. MO location forecast now showing snow turning to sleet here on Monday and rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A bit disappointing to be honest. Hey ho plenty of time for change!
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Showers beginning to increase in number slightly off the Yorkshire coast and possibly be pushing further inland. Anyone near the coast experiencing these?
Not yet but the sky was turning before it started getting dark with some angry looking shower clouds out to sea. Dew points good at the moment too.
Ooops I'm in Scarborough. keep forgetting the locations switched off!
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Looking like an interesting spell of weather coming up. Not quite sure about coastal marginality over the weekend. -7/-8 uppers should support snowfall with all other key ingredients in place however forecasts on the BBC and MO website show rain or sleet down the coast even on Sunday when the real cold has dug in. Can anyone shed any light?
It then gets very interesting on Monday with what looks to be an all snow event for our region.
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Checked on the Netweather forecast and it has high chances of snow/precipitation all day on Saturday for my location, but the Metoffice showing absolutely nothing until Sunday - why the disagreement? Sorry if its a daft question!
Simply different forecast models used mate. I think the Met Office use there own UKMO data and Netweather use data from the GFS.
Meto update for Sunday
Outlook for Friday to Sunday:
Mainly cloudy with patchy light rain at times on Friday, perhaps wintry over hills. Further showers on Saturday and turning increasingly cold. Snow showers and cold northeasterly winds on Sunday.
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1987 I think comes close to coldest 850's - 12-13 Jan over SE England
This event was my first ever memory! 4 years old trudging down the street with snow to my waist!
And with me constantly glued to the charts and MOD thread looking for snow i think I'd be a psychologists dream!!
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Tricky one. MOGREPS continues with more westerly component in set-up through & post weekend, hence less cold block v EC. UKMO prefer EC for now but caution re threat of heavy rain events to SW.... again.
Thanks for the Info Ian. That indeed has made me a lot more cautious. Completely different ball game this time round but MOGREPS solutions right in December. Still fascinating watching the drama unfold!
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I'll echo Col with the batteries mate. I stupidly used pound shop batteries for mine and the range was crap. Changed them to duracells and i can put the receiver anywhere in the house with no probs.
Was a hard lesson to learn as iv'e got my station on the roof so it's a full on mission to change batteries. Especially when it's windy or icy!!
Happy new year to you anyway and hopefully we'll get some good cold soon
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Nope that is the ECM32 day model, which indeed, like the other deterministic models quickly changed a week or two ago, but that's the way it goes. The seasonal models are different, but they are just that 'models' and can be wrong which only time will tell.
M.
NB: As an additional after using the EC32 day and the variety of information available from it operationally for over a year it has been correct far more than it has been incorrect despite failing miserably of late.
Ooops. Fair play.
What are the verification stats like for these models? If short/ Medium term models have recently struggled surely confidence in long range models would be lower? I'd be curious as to what they forecast in situations against the norm such as 2010?
Is the Glosea4 similar also? I think i saw that was also showing zonal.
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A few tweets from Matt Hugo, lets hope the seasonal models are woefully wrong! Some dreadful outputs this morning and the less said about them the better. The EC32 updates today so lets hope for some good news later.
To finalise the seasonal models for this year, the EUROSIP model has updated and shows a zonal picture for the rest of the winter.Despite the other 'signs and signals' the seasonal models have been steadfast in their agreement/consistency for an unsettled/zonal winter.Are these not the same models that were showing blocked pattern and an Easterly last week. Pinch of salt.
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Cracking day here in Scarborough. Weather stations on the blink but the hoar frost from last night is still around so i presume an ice day today. No fog today but beautiful clear skies and frost again forming on roads and paths. Here's a few shots taken at Osgodby in Scarborough this morning.
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Did it!!! I live in the north east and it delivered zip mate!! Im not sure about the extreme south east and you can correct me if im wrong but i think it deleivered nowt down there too!!
That's unlucky! Even more so was me stuck on a bus on the North York Moors for 5 hours travelling Whitby to Scarborough. Feb 12 was certainly the best part of winter in this part of the North East!
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Went up into Dalby forest today to get the Christmas tree. Beautiful up there. -2C on car thermo at 12.30. Thick fog giving hoar frost and it looked cracking. Very wintry scenes.
Came back into Scarborough and no fog and 0C.
The fog has rolled in now though. Temp -1C and hoar frost now transforming the landscape around here. Hope to get out for some photo's in the morning.
I would be quite happy settling for a hoar frost if no snow is forecast. Looks proper grand it does!
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Can't resist posting this! The lyrics in this song along with the angst perfectly sum up the last couple of weeks model runs.
You'll understand if you play it!
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that one always winds me up, i usually reply with "well how do you explain the antarctic when its -70c then???"
I remember having egg on my face after this one. 2010 cold spell and temp was -8C! heavy showers incoming from the North East. I told everyone we were going to get loads of snow and had the usual "It's too cold to snow" comments. Then, as the showers made landfall they disappeared!
Someone on here explained why it happened but i can't for the life of me remember the science.
I felt reet daft i did!
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Aren't the cold warnings purely for temperatures though?
They did mention heavy snow showers pushing well inland on their previous guidance which was in place through the weekend. Just goes to show how close we were! This guidance was however taken completely out of context by the tabloids.
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Try working in medicine, some of the comments people make about health conditions are hilarious! Try and inform them with evidence and you usually get shot down. There is just no telling some people!
TWS comment about salt in the air means we won't get snow on the coast is one i hear a lot. The thing is with coastal marginality etc it seems they are proved right but try explaining the science and you may as well talk to yourself!
I do feel though that sensational media reporting massively misinforms the general public. This reduces confidence in professional bodies such as the Metoffice who you can garuntee will get stick when we don't get blizzards and -20C temps this week!
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Another load of tripe reported by AOL. I'm not quite sure how they get away with such blatant misinformation. They even quote the Metoffice winter outlook which goes against any forecast they are issuing at the moment.
I'm surprised they don't sue for slander as it lowers public confidence in their forecasts.
Freezing temperatures could last until February
We could be facing more than two months of snow, ice and freezing temperatures as forecasters predict that the winter 'whiteout' could last until the end of February.
The Daily Star reports that temperatures are now even colder than expected and, as a result, government forecasters have revised their predictions: it is now likely to be "colder than average" until the end of February, rather than "slightly colder than average."
The Cabinet Office, councils and highway chiefs have been briefed that the risk of snow is worse than a year ago and a three million tonne salt stockpile has been amassed to prevent travel disruption.
The Met Office winter outlook now says: "Probabilities favour temperatures below average for December to February, with a shift towards colder-than-average values increasing the probability of well below average temperatures."
Met Office forecaster Dave Britton said: "The winter outlook shows a change in probabilities, with an increased risk of cold and milder temperatures slightly less likely. The potential for snow is higher than last year's mild winter."
According to Sky News, next week Britain is facing a weather front known as the 'Beast from the East', which will bring heavy snow and freezing temperatures.
Sky reports that forecasters are predicting heavy snow from Monday, that will hit East Anglia first, before spreading across the South East on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Sky News weather presenter Jo Wheeler said: "People should prepare for the cold weather and allow more time to get to work.
"This snow could cause considerable disruption because of the accumulation in populated areas."
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Frequent hail and sleet showers overnight. Kept me awake as the really gusty winds strengthened during the showers and made it really quite stormy.
Seems from the forecast that that's about as exciting as it's going to get this week!
Temp currently 5.4C with a dew point of 1.0C.
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Has the rollercoaster of the MOD thread taken another turn? I feel because of all the excitement in there we are missing any potential in the next few days. The Metoffice still forecasting snow and wintry showers in the text forecast. I understand how poor the GFS is as picking up convective showers so I'm taking their forecast with a pinch of salt. I guess there may be a couple of surprises this week.
I eagerly await the countryfile forecast but would appreciate any other thoughts from someone who knows what they're talking about!
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Oh dear, the MOD thread is in meltdown and it's deserted in here! People must be having a break after another huge let down from the models! Might catch a few wintry showers here next week.
Just found this ace picture taken on Wednesday here in Scarborough. Don't feel i can complain too much when we've had scenes like this on only the first week of winter!
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It really hasn't stopped raining all day. Such a narrow band of PPN sat over us deciding which way to go! Recorded 22mm's since yesterday and 42mm's all week. Not bad to say the bulk of that was snow!
Temp 5.2C.
Yorkshire and Northern Lincs Regional Thread
in Regional
Posted
Flippin eck! The lampost is gonna be my friend for the next few days. MetO forecast has shown rain, sleet, light snow and heavy snow for Monday. Right now it's showing a mix of all of them with heavier snow overnight tomorrow.
Also showing light snow overnight tonight!
Very confusing!
Check the lampost time!