snow1975

I'm looking for -15C uppers across Scotland, that would be special. If one thing recent cold winters have lacked eg. 2010, 2009 is -15C uppers.

I agree! By the way, there's an interesting programme on More4 right now, relevant to what's coming later this month perhaps? Snowstorm: Britain's Big Freeze.

Assuming that chart is correct, a northerly is in the pipeline. It ties in with the MetO forecast. UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2013 to Sunday 27 Jan 2013: There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to be close to average for the time of year. Later, some marked changes of weather-type are possible, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases. Issued at: 1600 on Sat 29 Dec 2012

The sky has a snowy look about. Perfect conditions here. 0.9C, wet-bulb 0.0C and Tdew -2C. According to the lunchtime BBC weather, rain is expected after midnight. Looking from this station, it looks like the snow-line is 300 metres? There is very patchy snow cover at 200m locally this afternoon.

The PV splits into 2 in FI. One lobe moves SW from Greenland into Canada and the 2nd lobe sits over western Russia. An Arctic high develops over the Pole and wants to build SW.

What caught my eye was the issued time and date of the forecast, 0400hr today. I presumed this was the latest forecast. Surely this LRF should be updated daily regardless of the time of year since forecasters do work over the Xmas period.

When you say deep low heights over Greenland, you are implying a +NAO and mild for western Europe? That doesn't tie in with the latest MetO LRF. UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Jan 2013 to Thursday 24 Jan 2013: Rather unsettled weather is likely to persist during the first half of January, with further spells of wet and windy weather across some areas. Despite this, southern areas may experience longer spells of drier conditions with more in the way of brightness and lighter winds. Temperatures are likely to often be close to or perhaps a little above average. Later in this forecast period, there is greater than average uncertainty, though some marked changes of weather-type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases. Issued at: 0400 on Wed 26 Dec 2012

I did notice that late in the run the Atlantic becomes weak. This chart is great with a NW-SW tilt and signs of undercutting. Plus, yesterday's 6z did develop a scandi high and easterlies.

Maybe not, but a fat high in the wrong place doesn't have to mean zonal for months on end.

Next week Similar Jan 2003 Led to this

Meanwhile winter is hitting the far North-east. Shetland has been having heavy snow showers today with a covering on the ground. And its set to get worse with -14C 850's heading in tomorrow morning.

-14C 850's heading your way tomorrow morning. I wonder how that will translate into surface temperatures. I would expect the snow showers to get heavier with that depth of cold.

The GFS has been hinting at pressure rises from the south the past couple of days. The other models are following suite. A scandi high and low pressure in Atlantic with trough into the MEd. in FI could be a new trend. In fact it ties in with the Netweather winter forecast for January.

The Hemispheric view isn't great. Could do with an Arctic high nosing SSW towards Svalbard. However, I'm sure there was such a high on the output a day or two ago.

What a great chart this is, a bit like the GFS 6z in FI. Great for the flooded areas. When was the last time we saw low pressure over Iberia? The high looks like it wants to risge north to Iceland/Greenland. Some pretty cold air to the east and north of the UK.

Perhaps this chart shows the first signs of a pattern change to a more blocked one as you suggest?

-12C 850's strike Sheltand on JMA and ECM 12z's.

That sounds about right. I've got a standard 5 inch copper gauge. 0900-0900hr/19th total of 9.7mm 0900-0900hr/20th total of 34.6mm add approx. 10-15mm since 0900hr today total 55-60mm in past 48 hours

Snow event for Scotland

Notice the control at the bottom of the pack around Hogmanay showing -10C 850hPa's.

Potential for some surprise snowfalls next week, especially later on Boxing Day onwards as colder uppers come in from the west A complex low over the UK on Xmas Day. Uppers are a bit high, around 0C. Possible evaporative snow events??? in any heavier precip and slack winds. Here's the latest GEM 12z for Xmas DAy. More potential for snow later in the day in the north and west.

The GFS 18z was a slight downgrade on the 12z and the GFS 6z a further slight downgrade. GFS is falling in line with the other models. A lot of rain to come with snow on the hills; above 500m according to the Met Office. The best chance for lowland snow is Saturday night/Sunday morning when the uppers are coldest. NE Scotland has the lowest uppers and best chance of low-level snow. Here's the ECM 00z for 0100 Sunday showing -5C uppers for Perth. I think you have a better chance than me being further inland. More likely to be rain/sleet than proper snow. Sadly, it doesn't look like a 3rd February 2001 repeat.

I'll bank this chart. Hopefully a white New Year?

Check these out.

I think so? I week earlier the charts were epic showing a 1987 repeat.