snow1975

The GEM 00z is excellent for the north in particular. The GEM 12z is fairly consistent up to 144hrs. I thought the MetO highly regard this model?

Would this chart be cold zonal due to the PV so far south, akin to Jan 1993 or Jan 1984?

something like 2nd February 2001?

I've just read todays charts. Surely an upgrade and a lot to look foward to. Undercutting lows with easterlies.

I don't think the ECM is as good as some people make it out to be. JUst remember the extreme easterly a few days back to suddenly backtrack to the Atlantic. I think the GFS is underestimated by many, including the MetO.

Interesting. Do you think the recent SSW will have an effect soon? The MetO mentined it last week. Also. when is the tropical wave due, they come every 6 weeks according to GP? He mentioned the wave could connect the -AO and -NAO into an hemispheric event!?

Are they certain it will stay mild and wet until Xmas. The GFS 18z and todays 6z (just viewed it) clearly has a trend for cold easterlies before Xmas followed by a northerly reload at Xmas.

How's about a Northerly reload in time for Xmas?

Heights rising in Greenland? Interesting times ahead!

Like everyone else on the threads, I am gob smaked at the turnaround in the last day or so. How can the ECM go from an extreme easterly to an Atlantic line-up in 2 days?? That's why the MetO only produce fax charts out to day 5, because the models are simply not good enough yet to accurately forecst the weather after 5 days ahead. Yes, the beast wil be stubborn and take a while to clear off east. It is too far east and quite low in latitude. The worry is it will push all the Atlantic lows over the top into Scandinavia, blowing all the cold air away. It could last for weeks and weeks and the GFS 06z shows what could happen. However, the Met Office made a point about a recent warming in the Strat. which may take a while to show up in the models. Plus, GP hinted that a Tropical Wave is due to take place soon which hopefully will excite the AO and NAO into a negative frenzy.

The latter stages of the ECM brings thoughts of -15C uppers crossing the North Sea and engulfing Scotland. Imagine the fast moving very heavy snow showers with hail and thundersnow....visibility reduced to 10s of metres at times and the powder snow swirling into huge drifts. That sort of easterly would bring the severe conditions to eastern Scotland and the central belt, similar to what northern Scotland experiences in an Arctic northerly.

I watch the models everyday but I don't usually write in the forums. I was punching the air when the ECM came out tonight! It's fairly certain an easterly is going to happen. I hope it doesn't 'south grade' and become an England only event as often happens with easterlies. Even in 1991 and 1987, Scotland missed the worst of the cold pool. Tonights ECM has the whole UK in its grasp.

I quite fancy a polar expedition to Denmark on foot over the frozen North Sea.

Hi, Supposing these charts do come off, what will you do?

Pressure in Med in 10mb lower and GH 5mb higher than on 12z

Easterly flow with cold uppers at T192

On 18z at T138, low is digging further south.

The 12Z has the lows further south again (above) compared with 00z below.

Energy heading under the block with a reload of even deeper cold coming down from the Arctic

Blizzard in the North Sea heading SW

Looks like a big rain event for NE England and E Scotland next Monday/Tuesday.

With regards to the progged PV firing up, I can see positives in this. I don't want a cold November...ice, ducks, slush and muck et al. We need a Polar Vortex for intense cold to develop up in the Arctic. Look at last winter, a strong PV unti mid January, then it broke down and just remember the intense cold pool that enveloped eastern Europe and Eurasia. Otherwise, a weak PV all winter wouldn't bring a severe cold spell to the UK because the cold air is diluted over vast areas of the mid latitudes.

Been snowing lightly here for past 30 minutes, slight dusting on my greenhouse and shed roofs.

A slight shower of snow pellets here at 16:30hr. They are classed as hail, code 3.

Did you get a sprinkle? We had a slight cover here on frozen ground, not concrete.