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theprophecyman

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Posts posted by theprophecyman

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 21/01/13 6z Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Further to my last post, there isn't much on the radars right now so I guess the MetO were referring to the stuff in the English Channel which the French appear to have knicked. Nevertheless, this goes to show the difficulties of attempting snowfall predictions.

    I remain confident that something may well pop up again during the next few days at short-term notice.

    Now where was I? Ah yes.....................................................

    g010.gif a070.gif a080.gif h025.gif h030.gif

    Have a great Birthday GTLTW clapping.gif

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 21/01/13 6z Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by theprophecyman

    6z GFS also keeps it South coast only ... We need a Northwards correction from the GFS and UKMO this afternoon , or it could be a damp squid for most ..........

    Agree looking at 6z GFS charts, but reading the tweets from Ian F (posted earlier) there does seem to be "potential"??

    Guessing METO (Ian F) has access to other data that shows the low pushing further northwards??

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 20/01/13 10z------------->

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by theprophecyman

    So next weekend, is going to be milder without any snow?

    Think that's "possible" view from reading one of Ian's earlier posts..... (below)

    It's a highly diffuse forecast re any semblance of local let alone regional detail through next 48-72hrs. Our broad note of caution is that given such low static stability, anything could happen, frankly. Our only area of high confidence is for a breakdown next weekend but clearly any detail on this isn't worth paper written on at current juncture.

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 20/01/13 10z------------->

    in Regional

    Posted

    post-5488-0-98024800-1358695322_thumb.pn

    We have issued a % probability of disruption due to snowfall on Tuesday with the most emphasis placed on areas immediately around and South of the M4 corridor with some areas to the North of the M4 also included. Main counties of concern for the risk of 5-10cm or perhaps more are currently North Somerset, North Dorset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, Wilts and Hampshire.

    That makes a change acute.gifblum.gif

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

    in Regional

    Posted

    Serious post shocker from me.

    Can we please make sure that we all check on the oldies etc. This is looking far more serious than a bit of pretty snow to make everyone smile and for us to play in. As we all know, extreme weather like this can have a really bad knock on effect for those who are elderly, have disabilities...

    In Dec 10 my neighbour got really peed off with me knocking on her door asking her if she needed cat food. biggrin.png

    Already on the case, have my milk and bread order for later on.......

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by theprophecyman

    This is getting tense now really would like to see a shift west next run how likely is that?

    Got this earlier from AWD, may help??

    snapback.pngtheprophecyman, on 16 January 2013 - 09:55 , said:

    Hi, I;'ve seen a few comments re the 06Z re eastward shifts, and the 12Z will shunt it back westwards, was just wondering if there's anything different from the 06z and 12z model runs?? Cheers guys....

    FROM AWD

    12z is generally a little more reliable due to having a tad more data input to it.

    Been a common theme of late for the 06z run to be eastern biased, only for the 12z run to correct west again.

    Not saying it will happen this time, it might not, just saying that's been the scenario recently.

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

    in Regional

    Posted

    Courtesy of Ian, but available on Met Office website;

    MET OFFICE: Amber Alert of Snow for South West England : North Somerset, Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, ... http://t.co/2hN4ewuD

    Met Office upgrading to Amber Warning for snow Fri: N Som, Bristol, B&NES, S. Glos, W-Central Glos; NW Wilts. Details to follow.

    Frome right on that boundary line...... Interesting times ahead....

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by theprophecyman

    See METO have widened the yellow alerts for Friday, assuming this inidicates the front will push through the SW to all parts of the UK??

    Alert updated as follows

    As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest.

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