[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Well just checked Ian's blog and it looks like my trip to south somerset could leave home with some transient snow which will be of rain by the time i return!

"The greatest risk of snow will be for any areas of high ground above 150-200 metres, facing eastwards."

Let me guess "Gurney Slade" is east facing and over 200mts

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Yeah, I thought it was meant to turn back to rain, but it didn't (well, not in Bath at any rate!)...

I wonder if the cold air is putting up more of a fight, as the precipitation never made it very far North... It went over to the South East!...

Was that meant to happen???

Not to sure if I'm honest. Didn't Ian F mention it would go as far North as S Midlands, then arch SE'wards??

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Very quiet on here tonight!!!

Temperature is currently 2.7°c with a DP of -0.6°c

Will be interesting tomorrow to see what we get??!! - I'm guessing if the DP stays low enough - who knows. We could be in for a surprise.

Was interesting this morning, I left Frome about 6am and it was heavy rain all the way into Bristol (centre) - then we had maybe 30mins or so of constant snow (nothing heavy/settled etc) - but i was surprised.

And speaking with the missus it was also snowing in Frome for a while this morning as well - just wondering why it wasnt snowing at 6am - but it was mid morning??!!

All the best

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Very wet drive in from Frome to Brizzle - Heavy Rain most of the way

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Its snowing!!

Very wet and not settling though. interesting thing is it isnt even very heavy ppn.

Rain in Frome, but wasn't expecting much else to be honest - Going to be a wet week ahead

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Lovely sun in Brizzle at the moment,

Roll on spring (hopefully)

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

i keep getting nice big flakes for a time then rain anyone else getting this.

Bonjour, nothing in the centre of Brizzle (Cabot Circus) was quite heavy about 09:30'ish for about 20mins or so, although it didn't settle, but looking at the radar there seems to be another shower on it's way. Will be interesting to see if it's snow/sleet or rain.

Quick straw poll, do people say pitching or settling??? - Most people in the office say pitching so I'm guessing it's a Brizzle thing (as I'm orginally from Essex - where we say settle??)

Acutally it's now raining

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Not to sure who's online around the Bristol area, but just looking out of the office window, and there's a excellent sunset - really nice red sky...

Anyway - where's this supposed snow meant to fall at the end of the week, is it Cornwall, Devon?? - Not to sure if it will get to Bristol/Frome??

All the best

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

I have a feeling that i shall leave in the morning with rain/sleet which will turn to snow while i am in lowland bristol working and then be gone by the time i get back home from work!

Ditto

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

It's been emotional

Good luck all

And until next time

:unsure:

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

OMG i think you could be right. I was wondering why meto had light snow until early hours forecast....

just had a quick check and snow falling moderate now as im on the very edge of the second shade of ppn.

I don't think we shall be seeing rain too soon away from devon and south coast. temps are falling still as night wears on.

local roads are already blocked and A37 is very slow from what i hear.

Not had a great deal in Frome, been snowing on and off during the night, but I would say at best 1cm, hopefully that will change over the next few hours

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

It is slow but growing in intensity if you play the radar back half hour ull see

looks to me theres also another band behind the approaching one??

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Had a centimetre or so in Frome on the Critchill estate and still snowing quite lightly at the moment, have had some heavy stuff though.

cheers Craigman - off topic but any idea if Trinity School will be open tomorrow - cheers

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

evening all

just had a interesting drive back from Bristol to Frome, snow was quite heavy around the Bath area (approx 45mins ago) but seemed to die off as I was getting nearer to home,

how its looking for later this evening?, not doing anything in Frome at the moment

Cheers

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Personally i think it will move a bit more NE then start to slide NWwards probably slipping just south of here.

It just doesnt look like its got enuf umph at the moment to push too far inland.

I can only hope, but i fear this may be the case.

if is does move that way - then im right in its path

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

If any of you have any questions on whether you will see snow in your area based on the latest, then please feel free to ask. I will be here for the next 20 minutes.

Thanks TC

Any view on Frome for today/tonight - cheers

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

does seem colder now in the centre of brizzle than this morning,.

Snizzle at the moment, albeit very light

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

my temperature is fine being so high up if it can just move more west and pep up on mendips.....

comon 0.1c

don't think it will happen, I'm in Frome and it seems to be dying out before it reaches here

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

heavy snow here...

hoping that band hits Frome later on - looking at the radar it has a chance

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

It would be even nicer if it showed some ppn around Trowbridge!!

Had didly-squat all day!

Might get something later on (not much though I guess) - some PPN just entering Basingstoke on our heading

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Hi There,

Looks very much to me that the Met Office are disregarding the GFS at the moment - whether wrongly or rightly we shall have to wait and see but for that reason we can't really go on the gfs precip charts. UKMO FAX is very suggestive of the occlusion pushing inland much further than on the GFS, with a better flow ahead of the occlusion off the near continent - the problem is afterwards the flow becomes atlantic, so unless we see the LP about 50-100 miles further south it could well be a snow to rain event

But with 48-72 hours to go many things can and will change

Unfortunately with the GFS perhaps being discounted at the moment for the short term, we cant get any real ideas about the dew points etc - hopefully Ian will have an update for us based upon the NAE, MOGREPS, GM etc.

Kind Regards

SK

thanks SK

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

To be honest I think theres been a lot of criticism unfairly placed at the Met Office here with their short term forecasts - granted they got this very wrong but you have to remember, as today has proven, it is not an exact science!

Setups dont come more marginal than this in terms of precip and temperatures, lets take a look at what we have:

1) An UPPER warm front

2) Temperatures around 1-2c

3) Dew points at 0c

Three of the most borderline variables for a rain/snow boundary

I think the critical thing today has been dew points - the moment it reached 0c here it turned to sleet/rain

SK

cheers SK

so with this front pushing into the SW Tues/Wed next week, would you say (with the info we have at the moment) there is a potential risk of heavy snow for the south-west? Just wondering how far the front will push in (central parts, west London?) - with what I've read so far it seems it will push so far then the easterly reloads will fight the front back out to the atlantic - is that about right??

Cheers

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

thanks Dartmoor_Matt

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

I'd think the 30cm was probably reserved for the highest bits of Dartmoor/Bodmin Moor and possibly Exmoor. I'm not sure the low is going to make too much in-roads for it to include high ground else where in the SW, but as with everything its such a fine line, take last night and today as an example.

Still -1.6C here and levelling off a touch now.

Going to go and have a read thru the MOT now and see whats going on there.

Have fun reading the MOT thread, I do try reading some of the info on there, but it gives me headaches most of the time will you be able to report back and let us know your thoughts?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

And Here is todays weather forecast " The whole of the south can expect disgraceful amounts of snow Tuesday and Wednesday which will come to nothing by the end of Monday" ref. new met office warning

That's harsh - doing the best they can in my view. That's one job I wouldn't want to do - so much grief if/when it doesn't work out,

You have to remember these are advisory weather warnings - not cast in stone