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Everything posted by Andy Bown
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Looking forward to that sudden clearance arriving here in due course after an awful morning. I have been thinking that the (just about) week of cold conditions were a lucky blip in this otherwise monotonous mild (warm even) winter. Hard to think that it's just 48 hours ago that the ground was frozen, it seems a distant dream.
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Yes John it is surprisingly beautiful at the moment and, it has to be said, feeling very Springlike! Perhaps that was winter? I had 5 days with maxxes not reaching 5c and several harsh frosts including the lowest temperature for nearly 4 years. However with today's change allied to how it looks going forward nature can get back to progressing with Spring!
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You were spot on Greg, -5.9c was the min so the same as Mike in the Bristol area. Seriously hoping the frost hangs on for a good time tomorrow and there must be a chance of freezing drizzle/rain later tomorrow due to the ground temperature being so low. Re the post above about 'snizzle' ; did you have freezing fog? If so you had crystallized fog which can be extremely localised and is a thing of absolute beauty. I have only witnessed it twice ever and on one occasion it left a covering on one side of the road I lived on but nothing the opposite side!
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I loved it too, there is something magical about frost remaining all day, probably because it is so rare. Perhaps by Thursday morning we might be getting 3 frosts on top of each other in the shade which would then look great before the slowly milder air creeps in, added to which some places could get freezing fog which although dangerous would create a rime winter wonderland.
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I remembered at 03.00 this morning (when getting up for a pee and checking to see if anything had fallen) that lamp post watching is now impossible between 0000-05.30 around here thanks to the council turning off street lights to save money! Monday is soo far away those predictions will not be accurate. More interesting is how features are popping up in the cold flow. Last night's showers, tonight's showery band and maybe even something running South tomorrow night. Kind of makes me wish we could stay in the Northerly flow as it would only be a matter of time until a proper front occurred.
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Just a word of caution for those of us in Bristol/Bath/East Somerset and Wiltshire ; these showers coming from the NW will be affected by the Welsh mountains which very often cause precipitation to break up and decay. So if you see a large area of snow across Wales heading this way tonight do not be surprised if it breaks up and do not throw your toys out of the pram if that occurs! Meanwhile, proper winter late afternoon with clear sky and temperature plummeting towards an early frost.
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Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016
Andy Bown replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can people please not quote entire posts! Steve Murr's long detailed post appears 3 times in succession! -
Yes that's for tomorrow night into Friday, I noticed the 13.30 national forecast showing/mentioning snow showers spreading SE into the early hours of Friday. That will presumably be a trough and shows how such features can quickly pop up to give snowfall which had previously seemed unlikely. The sort of situation where one town could have a few cm and the next town nothing because it will be showers.
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Being 6 to 7 days away it's never ever going to be as modelled now, they're struggling enough with the fronts coming in tomorrow night/Thursday! I'm going to agree with you about it being modelled further and further West and predict that come Monday morning the front won't have even made it to Cornwall and this region will be bitterly cold.
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Well it feels like winter today with the gusty NW wind and temperature of 6.7c at the moment, will be interesting to see if anything remotely wintry can fall once showers arrive soon! Just to show how balmy it has been, yesterday's 7.1c max was the lowest max since November. I have adjusted the thermostat to 18c after it sitting at 16c them 17c all winter so far, we are fortunate to have a warm house with the living room and our bedroom South facing but even I am feeling a bit chilly today.
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We may have escaped the worst in Nov/Dec as those fronts stalled and stayed mainly to the NW but this is turning into a very wet month, 18mm overnight has taken the total to 97mm already! Largely fine day today though with some low cloud/mist but also good sunny spells until a recent shower, 7.1c currently so much more seasonal.