rmc1987

Why does it change so much though?

Couldn't be anymore unsurprised by that if I tried. The GFS usually does, of at least lately, downgrades temperatures as the time gets nearer.

London doesn't look like it'll see the highest temperatures. Currently showing 25c for weekend, not quite heatwave of course, so similar to the weekend gone it would seem. Towards the south coast or even midland area would see the highest temperatures.

I remember that Sunday it hit 38c here, was on way to Southern Germany, by car, driving through France. Then one night in Southern Germany there was one almighty thunderstorm. In fact before it arrived you could see it flashing away over beyond the Black Forest. Here I doubt we'd see anything like 38c again for a very long time. It was exceptional conditions that led to that heat and many, unusual, things would need to occur for it to be possible.

It will be interesting to see how things turn out, I see the current GFS run has dropped it's temps of 27c (as per) it previously had progged for next weekend. It is looking like we can expect a spell of settled warm weather perhaps getting close to 25c.

I can see why forecasting is so hard now, one minute we have a warm week to look forward to now it's not. Normal temperatures, GFS seems to lead you right down the garden path with warmth then changes it's mind. FI is just that, yes it was nice to see some excitement on here when it was showing heat a few days back but I'd have thought most would have known it's true colours. So tomorrow perhaps a 26c then cooling down to normal from Monday, with reliable it looking about average I'd say.

Quite true but then I'm only commenting on what has happened.

This weekend was supposed to he pretty warm not so long ago. Oh now look at it, talk of 1976 etc is clearly the excitement of seeing a model that's having a funny moment. I've been disappointed where any warm weather has been downgraded as we've drawn nearer and significantly so. I didn't screen shot the charts that had 27c about a week back for tomorrow but reality is it'll be nowhere near 27c tomorrow.

On the 25c, I've noticed the GFS show us certain temperatures but then as the date draws nearer they whittle down. About a week ago tomorrow had temps over 25c showing and this isn't the first time.

Once again as time gets closer the GFS re adjusts itself with forecast temperatures.

I see why FI is used because a fortnight away and the GFS shows high 20s. Now that would be splendid. In fact from this weekend until the end of the run the temperatures look above average. If course as we have seen reality will be below that but one thing that looks likely is a relatively dry and pleasant weekend for Wimbledon and Glastonbury looks like it may see 18c-20c, possibly a degree or two warmer for the final day.

It's not just the met office, a few days ago the GFS showed mid 20s for Weds and Thursday now look. It eventually almost gets it's own grip on reality with regards to temperatures as the relevant time gets closer.

Well the current run has warm temperatures through FI, but what I've noticed is the way temperatures downgrade as time gets nearer. At one point Wednesday and Thursday 24c/25c but is now showing 20c, that's a big difference. Shame though because out in FI there's some warmth 25c+ but it seems the outcome is predictable. So a better week ahead but perhaps squeezing a 21c and maybe a warmer weekend. Not totally sunny either below to average in the way of temperatures I would say.

So it looks as though the HP will peak on Thursday but we could possibly see the warmest day a week Monday. That's of course going by the GFS and on the basis the high sticks around etc. That, however, is a relatively long way out yet. Still an improving picture on this weekend, temperatures I wouldn't like to say. I remember once you could look at GFS and the actual ended being about 3c higher, that hasn't been the case lately.

What's likely = Without looking looking, low pressure, cloud, rain and a balmy 16c? No, ok maybe 17c then. What is of note to me is dew points of 16c today.

Warm uppers but too much cloud therefore temperatures of no real note. Well I say no real note but 22c is of note with the durge we constantly get. Still no sun though and I can't see where we will get any, any warmth struggles to last. I can see is not getting even a 27c this year. It's constantly grey almost all year round for the bulk of the year being hardly distiguishable.

Some high DP temperatures on GFS of 20c I have seen, wow. Now I don't mind that, in the UK that's exceptional. The GFS values on DP I've never taken notice but it seems it's probably around 5c higher than actual? Anyone have any insight in to this?

Looking for summer in this country has become a big challenge, to get 25c an even greater one. You could put us in the middle of the Sahara and we'd still attract cloud and the rest of the tripe we get.

Oh more wind from the North Sea, exciting. GFS also sobering up with an expected downgrade, only thing predictable about it really. So we can expect an ok few days, it's not going to be wall to wall and hot but a bit of a mix and pleasant I would say. Cooling down from Thursday though and back to basics.

Cloudy conditions to prevail then the GFS has perhaps had a few too many beers with it's 30c. Maybe we will hit the 26c progged by BBC but we'll have to see. I like warmth very much and even the other day, although cloudy, it was warmish and quite humid. In fact I believe the dew point was about 17c. It felt most unusual for England. That said some sun would be most welcome, a little cheeky seemingly. A bit of a warm up then a quick cool down, once again cloudy, cool and wet conditions prevailing and out living any warmer sunny spells as per.

Anyway over the next week some more pleasant interludes amongst the cooler and less settled weather?

Yeah the charts have looked ok but what we've had hasn't been quite as good. Decent spell ended here on Thursday, Friday was ok but not as sunny or warm and each day has got cloudier and cooler. It has been pleasant at best tbh and I can only imagine very warm is down to it having been so dreadful for so long. It seems it was a real struggle to get this even!

Yes I wouldn't hold out this weekend doesn't look as good as what it did early this week never mind further away!

Any cloudy and cooler spell of course outliving a sunny settled spell? This weather has been lovely but considering it's a week of settled conditions and we don't get many in summer these years it would have been nice to see it get to 27c. Still breakdown next week as we have seen likely just only when has been the issue. Today and yesterday plagued with cloud which is a shame now we know best of the sun is behind us, I thought perhaps we'd see more sun than looks likely.