Strider
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Posts posted by Strider
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My altitude about 5 miles from Watnall seems to be favouring me as it's been mostly snow here. Probably accumulated about 1-2cm already.
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I know it looks bad, but Met Office have updated southern extent down to way further south than us for Amber area.
That big blob of precip south west of of wales isn't even due to hit until nearer midnight, so yeah, don't panic yet. Probably won't see as much snow as Derby, but then do we ever ?
Apart from the last couple of weeks you mean? Leicester has easily done the best of the EM this winter so far. Maybe tonight just isn't your turn.
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Anyone taking what the gfs shows over the high resolution models is clearly not sensible. The met office use nae as the basis for their forecasts and that is good enough for me. I think it has got most snow events this winter spot on, perhaps under estimating some light snow fall on a couple of occasions.
Therefore, I shall be using n a e as the major guidance for this event. Some snow seems inevitable: and for nottingham, this is the first time we have been in amber this cold spell. There could be quite a lot of snowfall, albeit very wet and transitional, clearing off by the end of the night!!
Actually to be pedantic they mainly use UKV for their short term forecasts (although in this case, the two are largely in agreement)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/ukv-improving-accuracy
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Certainly there's a heavy south bias looking at the radar, it's bad news for Nottingham and Derby. I think the Leicester folks have lost their moaning rights for a while! Enjoy it guys.
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A Thames tickler by any chance?
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I still don't think either the BBC or METO are truly appreciating what is going on TONIGHT, let alone tomorrow. Accumulation is already about 3/4cm here. If it continues like this it could easily be 10cm before the "main band" hits.
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Just to point out, I did mention this from NAE yesterday..! But the total amount is a surprise
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NAE 06z really doesn't look that bad to me tbh...
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I really just can't understand the complaints with NAE 18z to be honest... it shows good snow potential plus only goes out to 18z Friday.
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Last year snow curtailed the Derby v Forest match, looks like deja vu again this year!
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NAE pushes the snow further east (or rather faster at least) than most of the other models, starting the snow at midnight Thurs/Fri
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NAE still going for snow on Thurs
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NAE has snow accumulation by Thurs, basically fast forwarding the battleground rushing the Atlantic back in...
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Looking at the GFS and UKMO 12Z'S
It's hard not to get into ramping mode
The uppers don't look all that chilly on Sat/Sun (on GFS)
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Novice poster so please bare with me
Anyone got an 18z model to look at?
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NAE 18z is an upgrade on snow depths, especially for W Mids ...
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Yes the current ppn is bumfluff, and to be perfectly honest there's (currently) no sign of anything heavy.
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NAE showing rain on leading edge, going rain -> snow -> rain -> snow until tomorrow tonight for E Mids. Better the further east you go
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NAE shows things to be pretty marginal, especially for W Mids
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Yes, NAE snow depths suggest up to 20cm for East Midland areas. Looks promising!
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oh and Leicestershire lol
How's life at Ikea?
Yes, I think it would take a pretty spectacular turnaround to avoid the overnight snow from Sun/Mon. Although the eastern areas will likely do the best
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NAE very keen indeed on signficant snow overnight Sun into Mon
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Sorry to ask this which I asked the other year but what are the main things needed for snow. i.e what dew points, temps, air temps etc are needed for snow to fall
As a rough guide upper (850mb) temps -7c, air thickness below 528 DAM, dew point 0c or below
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NAE showing some light snow for East Midlands early Sunday morning
The Midlands Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z ----->
in Regional
Posted
It looks snowtastic! Lol