Strider
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Posts posted by Strider
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Checking the EURO4 which was excellent last week shows little snow overnight, but a good chance tomorrow morning post sunrise and Friday morning as well.
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Cheers bud, it feels good to be back
Yeah I often find that we tend to have a better chance of snow in Feb and March than Dec or Jan! I don't know if that is statistically correct, it probably isn't but my late Grandad used to always tell me that Feb was the snowiest month.
Statistically it's more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas I believe.
Welcome become, although I see you've moved now
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Haha like I said it was the warm sector ! All in all a let down. I wanto move abroad
You could always move to the Peak District SSIB!
Probably didn't help that the METO were ramping up yesterday whilst the models were quietly downgrading it
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Appalling again for Nottingham, not even a sugar coating! EURO4 played a blinder again, called the downgrade quite early on.
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Massive downgrades on EURO4 12z for east mids, showing a mostly rain event now
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Current projections show it hitting the E Mids Derby/Nottingham just after 1900
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EURO4 6z shows heavy snow for a time in the E Mids, but little accumulation. It seems to me that the conditions are primed for accumulation with a dry ground, low enough DP and ppn heavy. Let's see if it's right!
I wonder if they will consider splitting this thread into W Mids/E Mids as that could cause some frustration later on.
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O yes that's exactly right , I have no clue and no point.Look for yourself and them make your conclusion . I'm going from experience , and it doesn't take a genius to see it's far too progressive and unrealistic
Despite the fact it's very similar to the 00z mean ensemble as others have pointed out. Are they (plus the GFS) all unrealistic too? Plus the METO...
Btw, I am not trying to make a personal attack here. I just think after a winter of grave disappointment people need to be realistic about what they are seeing. If you check the model thread back in December you'll see plenty of posts convinced that bitter cold is just around the corner and the models have got it wrong...
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I would like to take a minute to highlight the ECM a minute where I think it looses the plot .
This is the 144 chart
Notice the high pressure the northeast has a core of 1040. Everything looking good going forward , yes a distinct vortex toward Canada ,but it looks poised to head toward a wintry pattern from there , but instead we go to this
we still have a very strong high but it's sinking , and the vortex is between the two pieces is rapidly joining forces again , yes we still have energy going southeast but it's game over from that point in my opinion , but it's far too progressive in the way it dictates the sinking of the high pressure .
So in other words it loses the plot precisely where it does what you don't want it to do?
It seems to be on a bit of a knife edge hence the constant flip flopping of the OPs. The GFS ensemble mean has a chilly period for a couple of days at the end of the month but nothing spectacular, which seems to be the form horse for me. A slider into central Europe followed by a reassertion from the Atlantic/Azores
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Does anyone have a link to the MJO? Thanks
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And I forgot to ask the obvious question: has anyone ever fed 1962's data into a major model and seen what happens?
That's a really interesting question but I wonder if they even kept that kind of data back then?
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People comparing the beginning of EVERY WINTER to 62/63 really grinds my gears.
The majority of posters being unduly optimistic when the models show the most benign weather possible for the next 2 weeks (and similarly being unduly pessimistic when the cold actually does come).
I think everyone should at some point should read through the model topics of the truly uneventful winter periods (like first half of 2011/2012 or 2007/2008 etc) and learn something from hindsight. Not every winter has to be a special one.
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I read this forum about a week ago and saw Matt Hugo and others saying nothing remarkable was on the cards for at least December.. what happened?!
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Thanks - this thread is very informative for all - will you update the forecasts in the OP peridocially?
What happened to GP?
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It's just the previous 364 that have been complete and utter garbage...
Why, was it very accurate this time last year too?!
But yeah, some extraordinary night time temperatures too, I certainly think there would be a good chance of that record going if ECM came off
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Really interesting to see the regional variances. Drove 9 miles to work into Nottingham, had 2-3 inches at home but almost nothing once I reached Wollaton!
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I really think most of this will be rain now. Temps don't get down to 1c until after about 9pm and the 850hpa temps don't get much colder than -3c for our area.
Also it's worth noting last time MetO had a warning out for snow, GFS said it was going to be rain just like it is with sundays event. GFS was right, it was rain. MetO was wrong.
METO were wrong, GFS were right for your area. In Long Eaton it was almost all rain, in Ilkeston all snow (5 miles apart), GFS had predicted rain for everyone. So METO were right for my area.
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Is this thread going to split back into two?
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Yep we had a good 15cm at least here, Watnall still reporting 13cm accumulation at 09z despite overnight melt
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If you look at the M1 cameras you can see clearly from J24/25 northwards is snow affected
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GFS was showing rain for all the region though, which was clearly wrong. Last time this happened in late Dec 2010 GFS was right, NAE was wrong. Not so clear cut this time.
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It's more of a north/south divide rather than high/low
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This is epic snowfall, was not expecting this !
If it keeps going like this we could easily be aiming for 20cm plus here!
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Agree with the snowball flakes here in Ilkeston. Incredible!
The Midlands - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
A few years ago we had a polar low in the north sea... I'm going to guess 2011 but not sure