Strider
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Posts posted by Strider
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This is the first time I can remember GFS and ECM showing a pattern change simultaneously. Until it gets within T144 and starts showing on UKMO I won't be taking it too seriously though.
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Also to point out that if temps were 2C above average in January and February I wouldn't class that as warm now would you, and especially for the NE of England.
I would. I think it's pretty clear he was talking about relative temperatures and not literal ... ...
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Despite the difference in temps I'm sure 08/09 is more likely to be remembered for the February major snow event.
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We're going to need the Azores to move northwards in late Dec to have any hope of a cold shot chaps... GFS is tentatively showing this out in FI at the moment. Can't see anything else of interest.
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February 1986 was well below average in terms of temperatures and even then some places saw no snow.
I think Jan/Feb/March 2006 too!
Over a winter you would expect to see snow falling at some point. But for major snow events with accumulations of above, say, 5cm is an exceptional event IMO (for most people)
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Depends on your detention of a special winter.. I'll be happy with average, which includes snow, frost and the odd ice day or too thrown in for good measure.. winter doesn't have to be sub-zero for weeks to be a good 'un!
Anyone hoping for a mild winter, take a look outside, what do you see!? I see nothing, because my windows are obscured by fog!!!
January 2011 was average in terms of temperatures and hardly anyone saw snow
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Some things never change Poor winter that one......You don't even have to go that far back, if you look at the GFS run on this day 2 years ago it looks pretty similar
http://www.meteociel...=2009&archive=1
The weather remained unremarkable until mid-December and it was a cold winter.
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I have a bad feeling that GFS's evolution will lead to a Bartlett (obviously I'm not basing that on extreme FI)
ECM's is infinitely better which isn't saying much tbh. I think UKMO may be trending slightly closer to ECM but that might just be wanting it to be the case...
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Just because the Euro high sticks around doesn't necessarily mean it will be mild.. and likewise with the Euro high shifting, doesn't necessarily mean cold is on the way?
Most sensible post I've seen. The evolution back to zonality could herald a change back to windy and wet weather, but nothing especially cold.
That's not a great chart for cold lovers.
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Can I ask why ECM is more likely to verify than GFS?
Just because it shows a cooler evolution is not an acceptable answer and is misleading to inexperianced forecasters reading this thread
GFS has very strong esemble support, and besides ECM isn't *that* good anyway - it just leads back to the atlantic.
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Regarding ECM's LRF, is that ran at a higher resolution than their normal model?
I mean we wouldn't take their T240 as gospel so shouldn't we be a little cautious with this output? ... ...
Just sayin'
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The irony is the current block over eastern europe which is keeping our weather mild is helping the snow cover to build up faster
It's better to have the right synoptics at the right time so I'm entirely comfortable with this.
Looking at the models it looks as though we may have to wait until mid-month (a week or so) before Scandi gets a proper pasting
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I'm not so sure, there are differing amounts of data going in, but if one run perhaps doesn't have as much atlantic flight data, it may have more pacific flight data so things will tend to even themselves out. You have to bear in mind that no model run has perfect starting conditions - ie there will be holes in the data and this is one of the reasons why the ensembles are run as the adjustments made to the starting conditions in each ensemble run are put in place to simulate what differences those imperfections may make.
Interesting, I would've thought the same amount of data went into each run.
On the link you edited into John's post you talked about different amounts of flight data per run. Do you have evidence to back this up?
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Unfortunately Meteociel's archive facility doesn't seem to be working for me atm, can anyone else use it?
Anyway I think a degree of patience is required here. Remember, winter doesn't START for several weeks. There's nothing to suggest below average temperatures at present. I feel the first half of November will be very warm (with strong model agreement) with the second half of the month average and wet with slow moving troughs from the Atlantic.
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Yes, the best possible solution would be for a mid-Atlantic ridge leading to significantly cooler conditions than we have been experiencing of late.
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Mark Vogan is part of Accuweather isn't he? Plus, I heard hints from JB going for more cold for us this winter. It does look good.
I cannot get over that in 30 days it will be winter. Not officially, but some, like me class it as winter. Also that people will be in Christmas mode!
I was under the impression (certainly from the Met Office) that the official start to winter is indeed Dec 1st. Dec 21st is used by older folk
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The right run at the wrong time for coldies, although that said it does help to move the cold air mass into Scandi which could be crucial later on.
Also good to see Metociel have the runs coming out at the proper times now
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luck plays no part whatever in the scientific forecast and assessment, it depends totally on scientific reasoning, be it from a human or a computer or the best forecast a combination of them both. Here the human forecaster takes the baic model output and 'tweaks' it according to his/her knowledge and experience. So no luck there.The luck I supose is how some folk may assess the forecast?
The forecasts aren't based on luck but probabilities.
If I say it's going to snow on January 24th then that *is* based on luck as I have no theory to back it up.
But proper forecasters make assumptions based on current climatic condtions and connections. Obviously the further away you are predicting the more tenuous those links become, reducing the probability of accuracy.
Unfortunately a lot of people see forecasting as black & white so forecasters get a lot of unfair criticism due to ignorance of statistical likelihoods.
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Funny there's no posts about FI tonight... hopefully a lesson learned for some. If you base your predications on T300+ you'll have a heart attack before December!!
Looks like the usual autumn fare to me, wet and windy for most with Atlantic dominated weather.
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Not true, I remember several instances last year when the GFS 'nailed' patterns in far FI with several members poo-pooing the idea. Granted, the pattern was picked up, dropped then picked up again but they made it to the reliable.
This is yesterday's T384 from the 00z - were you saying the same thing yesterday, or just today because it's showing cold?
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2011102300-0-384.png?0
I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying that it's not really of note until it gets within at least T200
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Knew as soon as I saw T384 it would be referenced in this thread! Remember just because FI shows cold doesn't give it a shred of credence
In the reliable timeframe there is little to get excited about as we appear to be entering a phase of westerlies.
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It always baffles me why some members say take December out of the equation and the rest of winter would have been this. They seem to forget that January was not a mild month. The only mild month last winter was February but they give the impression that it was mild from the New Year onwards. The 5.0C averaged between the January and the February is a distortion in itself and doesn't reflect the true picture in the same way they argue that the overall CET for the winter doesn't reflect the true picture.
Last winter was composed of a very cold, an average and a very mild month.
Yes, people say January was warm because it was virtually snowless for most.
I have to say I'm fearful for this winter. I can't see it being as interesting as the last few atm.
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Superb charts across all 3 models. It's really hard to believe considering the output a few days ago was so dire..!
Can't help but wish it was 11th Nov though... are we coming too early?
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I really wouldn't put too much faith in that chart verifying.
That is some ridiculously insane cold temperatures being shown there for October!
Just doesn't seem plausible to me.
It's not *that* cold... and UKMO chart is showing similar.
Some things never change 
Poor winter that one......
Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The 18z is Lettuceing awesome for cold prospects compared to the 12zs... with such a dramatic difference though it can't be taken seriously until we see the esembles.