Strider
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Posts posted by Strider
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Derby and Notts desperately hanging on to the warnings!
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Well I've been enjoying a heavy snow shower here for a good 20 minutes or so. Wet snow, big flakes.
Sweet, are you in Uttox?
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I can't find the dewpoints on xcweather?
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Lots of ppn coming from Wales...
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It's time for the East Midlands to see the snow.
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balmy 7 degs here in Derby - might get me bbq out in a bit
Dunno what's happenning in Derby then because at 10am it was recorded as 1.6c in Watnall about 7-8 miles away
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I was quite disappointed with the GFS this morning.
It's a poor man's easterley tbh, day time temps up at 3-4c with the op eventually climbing to double figures towards the end.
Upper temps too expected to rise above 0c.
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Dire stuff for Derby and Notts yet again. It really is pathetic tbh
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Notts and Derby to miss out again!
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Could the wash warbler come into effect today? Looks like quite a bit of ppn coming in
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Was it not the GFS model that picked up on the cold signal first, nearly 14 days ago?
If I remember rightly it predicted a cold outbreak from the E/NE around the 8th Feb?
And that date still stands by the looks of it...
You have to give the model credit really. OK it's been like a rollercoaster since, but all of the models have.
If the pattern verifies (which is looking increasingly likely) then there has to be a big tip of the hat to the GFS in my opinion.
It did, but then by last weekend it went blowtorch again.
It a model keeps blowing hot and cold (sorry) then it is guaranteed to be correct at some point!
A more relevant question is which model consistently predicted the cold spell before the others? UKMO..?
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The Netweather Datacentre isn't working properly :lol:
Great charts though.
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Not much to say about the ECM 12z...it's rubbish, the GFS 12z at least shows colder air pushing south later next week.
Just when I thought I'd be taking a little break from the models up pops the ECM with a ray of hope!
Uh... does not compute.
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Im sick of hearing the cold weather will return and wheres is michael fish is he snowed in again since last week
Seeing as he appears to produce his forecast videos from his own house, the snow must have been really bad if he couldn't make it to his own living room!
:) I've noticed a distinct pattern on this thread - when the models show cold weather in 7 days + it's called deep FI and unlikely to happen, but when they show SWerlies it's a DONE DEAL and guaranteed to happen..!
The model consistency has been very poor in the last 3 weeks especially.
Unfortunately we have to accept that we cannot accurately predict what will happen next week.
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The dreadful winter for Notts and Derbys continues I'm afraid.
Not a flake of snow last night, and now the blowtorch looks to be moving in for at least the next 2 weeks.
This has been the most frustrating winter I can remember tbh, to be so close to decent snowfall yet also so far.
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The snow always seems to be 4-5 days away.
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Looking at the models, I can see it being quite a frustrating period.
We'll have cold weather, but little or no snow.
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One thing I have been very impressed with GFS about since it's upgrade is there 850mb forecasts, everytime the GFS has called it correct and the other models have had to back down!
You sure about that? The GFS initially picked out the coming cold spell, but went back to predicting mild weather for a few days into Feb.
This week it switched back again.
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It looks very much a wishbone northerly with showers restricted to the coasts, but at least should be plenty of wall to wall sunshine.
Yeah I don't see much snow for the Midlands tomorrow at all.
Probably better news long term though, it's looks as though we are entering another period of very cold weather for the forseable future imo.
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Potential snow event on Sunday for people in the SE Midlands
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GFS 06z op showing the Atlantic winning by Tuesday...
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The GFS 06Z op is a mild outlier from 1st Feb...
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You could well jinx it (or "Murray" it, as I often say as a F1 follower- and yes I mean the motorsport and not the slight modification of FI as in Fantasy Island!). If we see anything like this appearing in future runs:
http://www.wetterzen...00119890116.gif
...then talk of a B******t will be entirely justified. I've also seen it referred to as the "Eurotrash" High, just out of interest.
But for now, no sign of any of those- at most a Euro High sat very close to Britain, but more likely a bit further north than that, and no pronounced jet to the N and NW.
Out of interest, how warm was it in that winter?
The GFS esembles are just scatter gun after this week tbh...
Midlands Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I hope it all moves east so the East Midlands get the brunt of it. West Midlanders, you've already had your fair share thanks! Now it's our turn!:lol: