Strider
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Posts posted by Strider
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It's fair to say that ECM is *very close* to going pear shaped for coldies post T120 ... a word of warning!
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Finally some action!!
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People might like to cast their mind back to the ECM (actually, all models) easterly fail less than 1 month ago... GFS 12z op having nothing of the height rises over Greenland. /balance
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I hadn't seen this before until today - turned out to be an abysmal forecast!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf
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Dream winter charts from all models... just 3 months too late! Looks like temperatures could continue generally below average for quite a way into April.
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I prediced a light dusting for the Birmingham area with most going to the SW in our region which was correct, but I'm definately surprised how well Northants did.
Not sure why people take the little symbols from the Met Office or BBC as gospel then complain when it doesn't come off. True their main forecasts were also wrong, but it was clear from quite an early stage this wasn't going as planned (and I always felt the synpotics weren't ideal anyway).
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The netweather server isn't the only thing melting. Still no snow in central/east Brum
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Still sleeting in central Bham
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NAE 6z appears to dramatically reduce ppn totals, especially for E Mids
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MetO forecast does not make sense, pretty much everywhere in the west mids and east midlands is down for "Light Snow", and only at 'Night'.. yet the models suggest up to 24hours of Heavy snow.
GFS 18z is going for lows of -12c on Friday heading towards -15c for Sat night! Probably over-egging things a bit but at this close range it cannot be ignored.
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The NAE18z doesn't look as good as the 12z overall, really sure I'm not imagining that...
My expectations remain low for all but the very SW of our region. I don't really expect any accumulations for anyone else.
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That is a very surprising estimate in my opinion, I expect the higher risk of snow to be on the Eastern side of the Midlands not the Western side like the Met Office think. They have more data to look at than we do though so maybe they are seeing something that we haven't got access to yet? Maybe the 12z runs will back up their opinions for the West Midlands to have the highest risk.
It's all exciting and uncertain though!
I thought that too, but their internal UKV model blows NAE into the weeds ...
Personally being in Birmingham I don't expect any lying snow at all. If I was in the East Midlands I'd expect maybe a sugar dusting, and for the SW Midlands potentially around 5cm.
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LOL yes xena i wonder how many people moaning about a thaw live in a big town, head to higher rural areas of the midlands like you and it wont thaw much at all.
Giltbrook isn't high or rural :winky:
Birmingham central thaw about 75% complete now
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Been out in Brum city centre - got around 3 inches in total, but the thaw is definatey underway now (the snow eventually turned to rain at the end).
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Here you can see the gem 5 days ago rougly and what the gfs 12z predicts at +12 from today
Anyway snow still coming down well here
It's kind of been lost in the excitement of the snow but the models today have been superb.
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It was an ice day in central Brum. High of -0.6c now dropped to -1.7c already.
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Shocking news about Nigel Doughty, as a Derby fan this will totally overshadow tomorrow's game and my condonlances go out to his family.
Looks like here in Brum there is still quite a few hours left yet, although the accumulation total is only around 2cm.
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Small flakes in north east Birmingham
And in east Birmingham too... whereabouts are you? I'm next to Millenium Point lol
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Check the old thread, an upgrade on the 06z NAE!
I'm going to be staying at my girlfriend's house tonight so I might not be able to radar watch :lol:
I love her to bits but tonight I kinda wish I was staying here so I could radar watch and lamp post watch like the sad man I am :winky:Her location is 94m ASL and mine is 75m ASL, could that extra 20 metres make all the difference? Nah probably not, but the higher you are the better chance you will have of it staying as snow!
"Ok love I'll pop round, but only because your house is 20 meters higher above sea level and I want a nice lampost to stare at all night..."
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So when they were talking about deaths from cold weather I presume they were talking about GFS-induced heart attacks right?
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GFS still keen on sleet for quite a lot of the Midlands actually
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lol GP is obviously intrigued about the Midlanders thoughts!
GFS has the rain turning to snow slightly further west too
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Is it me or does NAE have the front passing through at rocket speed?
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The other thing I don't get about times like these is why people treat the BBC and Met Office ICONS like they're the oracle of all weather knowledge. They're probably using out of date UKMO/NAE data.
I love her to bits but tonight I kinda wish I was staying here so I could radar watch and lamp post watch like the sad man I am :winky:
Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Yes - I really have no idea why posts asking for caution are being shot down. GFS is showing another highly possible scenario, it's almost as though people have forgotten it exists! With the failed December easterly it was GFS that reacted first.