Cumulonimbus Tower
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Posts posted by Cumulonimbus Tower
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ARPEGE evolution and 850's support UKMO-GM almost exactly up to 00z Fri. Colder air somewhat further west compared to GFS.
Is that so? What model is the ARPEGE and where can one see it please?
On another note, the precip band looks to be pivoting over Northumbria at the moment. I wonder if this might bring some snow back west later this eve?
Cheers
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Well, we only need to get to 3.30/4 pm and it might start to freeze! Would be fun then as my house is on the steepest cul-de-sac in western Europe!
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Conflicting reports from Saddleworth there then
I'm just wondering when they are going to decide to send the kids home from school as I'm sure that as soon as they do that it will stop or turn to rain......
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GFS Seems to have firmed up nicely on giving a snowy and generally cold week for many. The mild attacks seems to have been squeezed although anyone on the western side of the BI will be thrown into the mild air for half a day or two according to the GFS. sitting half way up the Pennines I hope to be looking at a gloriously
snowy week, although the thing that gets me is
that I can NEVER remember getting a half
decent cold spell without ANY major mid level,
never mind high level, blocking in place. Can
this be possible? Has it happened previously?
Wax off the ski's dudes
Pa thought bi polar British isles ment it gets very cold twice in one week. Ha ha ha (see Rory o Gorman post)
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That is a common misconception - the anomaly charts are just that - a deviation from the norm. If, for example, the normal winter sea level pressure over Iceland is 985mb and there is a positive anomaly forecast of 10mb over Iceland then the end result would be 995mb. This would still be a trough in anyone's book - but not as deep as the usual. The same applies to the H500 anomaly charts and is why some think that positive anomalies over Greenland automatically mean a strong Greenland high, whereas in fact they may just be indicating a weaker polar vortex.
Cool, thanks for clarifying that. Makes more sense. I do think there is a tendancy for people to look at them and think "wow, whapping big HP" etc.
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anomaly charts tonight...
Discussion
http://www.cpc.ncep....day/fxus06.html
ALSO UNANIMOUSLY PREDICT A BLOCKING 500-HPA RIDGE OVER GREENLAND. THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM EACH FORECAST MODEL AGREE, TO SOME DEGREE, WITH
TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, BUT ARE GENERALLY OUT
OF PHASE WITH THAT FROM A CENTER OVER GREENLAND. THESE INCONSISTENCIES
INDICATE A MORE UNCERTAIN FORECAST TODAY, THAN YESTERDAY.
THE LARGEST CONSTITUENTS OF THE MANUAL BLEND WERE TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND TODAY'S 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 06Z GFS RUN WAS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS OVER CONUS, AND WAS EXCLUDED FROM TODAY'S
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO ONLY
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, AND
INCONSISTENT TELECONNECTION WITH THE GREENLAND BLOCKING HIGH.
I can't help but feel, and this is purely feeling rather than science, that the anomaly charts seem to make much more of blocks than actually seem to materialise. My guess is that if we lookes at one for this weekend generated on the 4th or so, it would have large HP over iceland and beyond where as the heights are reasanably modest and intersperced with shortwaves fro mtime to time...
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I kind of know where he is coming from. Things do seem a little finely balanced at times as it looks like the Atlantic wants to follow the second shortwave through about 96-120 and if this happened the block could be flattened and things could go wrong. This run seems closer to this scenario than either of the last three runs and the sense is that it has been getting nearer to this scenario for the last couple of runs. I'm not saying that this will happen but I am trying to give some measure to other points of view about where things 'may' go or could go wrong for coldies. Don't taze me dude!
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PHEW! ECM holds it's nerve. Expect the 18z to fall in line then.....
If only it were that straight forward -
ECM seems to have pressure building behind the SW near Iceland which to me is the key as opposed to it flattening out the pressure in the Atlantic and going the way of earlier GFS'
Saying that, there is further pressure on the block at 120h. Time to squint and close one eye.....
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Agree. I think it's the 0Z T144 and it is wrong on Meteociel.
GEM is still the 00z on wetter, or at least it is as i write this.....
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The GFS upstream whilst still not totally with the others holds back enough energy to clear the low ene.
This buys us some time, a decent trend at least from it.
I was looking at the GFS and thinking something similar myself. Whilst it still goes woefully wrong it certainly does it in a less dramatic way than this morning, so you could view it as starting to come back on board as opposed to standing firm with a new idea. I'm trying to keep positive and the METO chart certainly has helped but tonights ECM feels crucial now and i shall be watching it from behind the sofa, pack of prozac in one hand and bottle of Johnny Walkers in the other
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Even if things got a bit milder next week I don't think we are looking at the empty bucket scenario of December as the strat warming has had a massive effect or soon will and that isn't just going to disappear overnight. I don't think the GFS 06 is right but if it is in as far as the first bite is only brief, I honestly don't see us waiting around again for weeks for further cold outbreaks to show up.
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If the shortwave north of Iceland follows it's precvious track at 168 it could deliver quite a bit of snow to somewhere as it squeezes between the two High cells, if there's enough cold air about still....
Spoke too soon, theres too much pressure on the block and it flattens it instead. Oh well. Just another possibility i guess..
Baaa Humbug!
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Snow risk being shown by the ECM on Saturday.
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif
If you compare the 12Zs to yesterdays when toys were thrown out of the pram they are much better today.
Yes Dave, some very cold air into Lincs by 120h and heights building nicely in the mid Atlantiic, even compared to the 00 ECM
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Looking at the bigger picture, there seems to be quite a lot of warm air being advected north in the mid Atlantic around the 168h mark on the GFS. Could this have the effect of blowing up a block, like a baloon, in the north-mid Atlantic/Greenland/Iceland further down the line?
Also, a bit on the dry side but one of the better looking METO charts at 120/144 i've seen of late!
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London ens;
The EC Op a milder & wetter than average member in FI.
There looks to be an awful lot of colder solutions deep in the reaches of FI
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Personally I don't know what all the fuss is about. The models are still trying to get to grips with a warming event, which incidentally is only starting to happen now. The 12z GFS op seems to have dropped the ball with regards to the second warming which has been forecast and allows the PV to re-establish itself after a week or so of fluctuation. Why it has dropped the second warming is anybody's guess but following individual runs or even individual ensemble groups is best avoided when there is so much instability in the atmosphere. Has the second warming been cancelled or is the GFS just having an inter run wobble? I know what my money is on.
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The GFS excites me from an IMBY POV. Not often the west sees potential like this...
I agree. I must admit that I didn't really see anything to get excited about for the last couple of weeks but all of a sudden my ears have pricked up a little looking at the 12z from today. If things were to pan out like they might it could be quite a good week next week for being half way up a hill in the North West of the BI. There is always the danger that shortwave armageddon could spoin the party a little but hopefully the cold uppers will be spilling south that they swams any little systems coming over us and also squeeze down between the systems to give a right good old fashioned wintery week - from the north west.
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Whilst many have been talking about flooding potential and mild temps that isn't what the 06Z is suggesting. Cold at times but due to the block weakening the trough we won't see as much rain as some suggested, infact im not expecting much rainfall for my location.
Hi Dave,
Going by the old Met Mans post lsast night and looking at the GEM I might be inclined to agree with you. I don't think that the pattern later this week will hang around for long, it just doesn't have that feel about it and with the jet and current atlantic attack driving deep south east into Europe I see it might just be a matter of time before we get depressions pushing east over France or southern most counties. time will tell i suppose....
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And, for the most part we are simply enthusiastic armatures doing this because of our over enthusiastic love of certain synoptics rather than fulfilling contracts or delivering SLA's.Thanks to Matt H and Fergie for your contributions.Yes we do get rather caught up as a forum in the cold synoptics at times and it does no harm just to hear the professional viewpoints on model reading.
Having said that i can understand the excitement in here because of the continuing disorganised vortex state and the consistent modelling of Height anomalies at northern latitudes.
I think the ECM is getting there in the end.Just a little slower than the 00 version. In fact the 12z ECM has more of a traditional/realistic 'Scandi High influence in the UK' look about it....
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GFS 12z seems to have a nice little low running up the western side of Greenlland around 168h. Way into FI but nice to see modelled non the less....
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I had a glimps at the charts at 5am as I'm laid up with manflu suffering a temperature and thought "ey up there's going to be some toys spat out of prams by the look of those charts" Fortunatly everybody seems to have taken them pretty much at face value so far though. Whilst not as spectacularly pleasing as some of yesterday evenings snow fest charts, it looks pretty much 'as you we're with regard to us getting a pretty decent cold/cool spell of some significance. I actually prefer today's ECM as the Azores/arctic link up doesn't seem as tenuous which was worrying me somewhat yesterday eve.
Play nicely now everybody!
Cheers for all your great input......
Ned
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Getting into the area where flooding started to occur last time. Still going up and faster than earlier in the day.... http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120699.aspx?stationId=8097
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Looking at Environment Agency website 'Douglas at Parbold' looks about at bursting point, if thats anywhere around there?
If only it were that straight forward 
Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Thread - January 13th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
Definite pivot to the front now over Lincolnshire. Wonder if those heafty showers in the North Sea will come ashore once the Easterly sets in later.....