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Cumulonimbus Tower

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Posts posted by Cumulonimbus Tower

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ned

    Only on the basis of three GFS runs and one UKMO run! Most runs had nothing of it, and the ECMWF never showed snow on Monday at all.

    I am getting a little concerned about a possible latching onto the pattern I mentioned earlier, where it slowly turns mild and wet from the south towards Christmas due to low pressure holding "in situ" to the west and blocking developing to the east. The latter is the main difference relative to the Dec 1981-esque runs I mentioned, which had lows sliding from west to east to our south and keeping us in colder air. But this is only one set of runs, and as it is keep changing, it might change again.

    A lot hinges on the track of this low coming down from the Arctic as well. Earlier runs (and also the current GFS) had it sliding south almost on top of us rather than out west, and that reduces the chances of us picking up a southerly.

    I suppose another desirable scenario would be for the low pressure system to sink far enough south west for us to tap into some nice frigid air being ejected from the forming Scandi surface HP…(à la NOGAPS nearly)

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ned

    Please could you compare the Net Weather radar with the Rain Today radar on the precipitation types, on Rain Today they now show what the precipitation is. Thanks.

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Hello to all the Yorkshire snow watchers out there :)

    Nice freebie link! Thanks 10123.

    I suppose we will start to see the showers turning to snow by about midnight then, On higher ground at least... Any other thoughts on this?

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Another very good GFS this morning, the Parallel is outstanding and keeps the cold throughout the run. I think many would see snow at some point. There will be many changes between now and Thursday so no one should be disappointed about snow distribution as that is subject to change. I can't see this event being an odd wintry shower event with being mostly dry, nor do i see us digging our selves out of the stuff. Some people will do very well, others won't. But wait till nearer the time before we can work this out!

    I agree about the parallel. Looks remarkably like the ECM at 240h too. Could we really be seeing the firming up of a sustained cold pattern?

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Im satisfied with the ouptut but i cant get that ecm run out of my mind.

    I know what you mean, it's just like being cheated on by your partner :yahoo:

    I have (in a non scientific way) noticed however, that over the last few days the 00ECM has CONCISTENTLY been bucking the trend with some poor output for coldies compared with the other overnighters only to be back on board with it's 12z output. I'm certain a trawl through recent ECM output would demonstrate this. Maybe it's the data fed in or just the econimy 7 they are running it on, but it's there!

    Snow Watch: N&w Yorkshire, Northern & Ne England

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I live in a converted mill complex and awoke this morning to a bit of a cafuffle as the lane out was glazed ice and no one could get to work. The problem was that there was no grit left as people had taken to throwing it about like confetti at a newsagents wedding every time there was a flake of snow in the wind :D They had to commandeer a council gritting lorry which was driving past the end of the lane to come down and free them all – It only took a cup of coffee for the driver to happily oblige.

    Anyway, it’s snowing quite heavily now and the road is covering over again, ha ha….. fools :D

    Yesterday And Today In The Worth Valley

    in Archived weather photography area

    Posted

    Great pics there Ned, I loved going on the worth valley railway as a kid. Oxenhope & Haworth are beautiful stations, has brought back some memories :rolleyes: Looks fab in the snow, just a shame there werent any steamers about, im sure they could run, even if the modern day versions can't!!! LOL

    Thanks SA,

    I guess the trains are only running weekends through the winter although i'll try and snap you a steamer in the snow if i get the chance! - it's not melting mich at all!

    Cheers

    Ned

    Snow Watch: N&W Yorks, Northern & North East England

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just been out with the dog, hard to say exactly what the depth is because it ranges from 0 up to 10 cms depending on which drift you stand in. It's actually stopped now, but with all the snow blowing about in the wind it's hard to tell. Anyway, is there such a thing as a West Yorkshire streamer, because I swear this isn't the first time snow showers seem to be queuing up in a line from the Humber straight to this neck of the woods (see the 23.00 Meto radar and you'll see what I mean) ?

    Edit: looks like the next shower's just about to arrive................

    Hi PTFD,

    We have had a good hour of persistent showers over here too :D

    Looking at the Meto 23:00 radar there seems to be a more organised band of heavier snow about to push in from the north sea. May even have to stay up and see what it amounts to - think i can because i would imagine that it will be a snow day tomorrow so no getting my little girl up early :lol:

    Ned

    Snow Watch: N&W Yorks, Northern & North East England

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ey up all!

    Thought i'd check in to the oop north subgroup before things get busy.

    I'm a south Pennines weather watcher so will be able to warn our Lancastrian friends of and westward bound snowfall about half an hour before it gets them :doh:

    I would expect to start to get one or two showers blowing over from lat afternoon Sunday which should give a covering overnight and probably lead to my daughter’s school being shut on Monday morn. (it is a little primary about 960 feet up the hill.)

    I hope we will see some heavy snow showers on Monday but am at a bit of a loss as to what Mon night and Tue may hold….. I figure we will have a bit of a thaw at some point but hope that local factors may mean we stay fairly snowy until the ECM noreasterly arrives sometime late wed or thurs…

    That’s the way I see it anyhow. I am confident of Haworth getting a fair bit of Snow as I grew up in Settle and remember the 70’s and 80’s Easterly stuff quite well.

    Hello too to PP too as I’m sure he must be our local Professional Senior Meteorologist at the moment and look forward to his insight (and imput) B)

    Good luck to all though (as i'm sure everyone who has checked in here would like Monday off work at the very least :lol: )

    Ned :hi:

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