Cumulonimbus Tower
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Posts posted by Cumulonimbus Tower
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Hebden Bridge contingent here. Rivers been rising all day. Wonder what time the CalderValley flood warning will sound? My guess is midnight if this current hewvy rain persists. Look North camera crews already in place in the town centre. Glad i live on the hill on evenings like this!
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The end of the ECM seems to show the PV lifting right out of Greenland and Baffin. This could be a great signal further down the line...... if the ECM at 216 could be believed
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NOGAPS is a thing of beauty (to my untrained eye) tonight (For cold fans) and if the ECM follows it to only half the degree it did this morning then they will be shouting Blizzards from the rooftops by 7 pm this evening
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It seems that many on here are looking at FI as if it is something that is going to happen. FI is just that, Fantasy Island, and should be regarded as such. It can be usefull for looking for trends but looking deep into FI on every run of the GFS expecting to be able to tell what the weather will be is a non starter. It will also lead to mood swings like no others! Look for the bigger picture in anything past 5-7 days and chill out a bit ;-) The latest GFS still has the trough moving east across the atlantic at the end of next week and that is as far as i think i am going to bother with for now.... Now, where did i put those tea leaves.....
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Interesting to see the NAE has the colder air undercutting the rain over Ireland on Tuesday noon. I wonder if some upland areas in the UK might have a few flurries before it clears?
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To be fair I think it is a matter of perspective and location. I had to get a set of winter tyres fitted for going over the moor to my little boys nursery last week as on about four different occasions the road was treacherous due to snow and ice and by the look of the charts it should be quite wintry on Tuesday night, Wednesday, early Thursday and again on Sunday if the charts verify. So whilst not a mega cold spell to compare to last December it’s certainly been a lot better than some years of daily double digits and no snow for even the Cairngorms. I think some doom mongers on here have forgotten how bad things can actually get in this country. Happy Christmas
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My hope is that eventualy one of the ridges will build enough to pump some WAA up to greenland and Low pressure will stall to our east, the warming strat should aid this as it will put pressure on the Jet.
I'm not one to go on about Scandi High's and beasterlies but my feeling is at the moment that it should be Scandi and Russia that we should be looking towards for a pattern changer. I think that there will remain too much pressure exerted on the Greenland ridge by the PV for now and deep into FI there are sighns of pressure rising to the NE and i think that it is this which will become more prevalent in the days to come.
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Here goes.
Cloudy and the temperature shooting up like a rocket. Bye snow/ice.
First Shower just skirting to the south of you then Backtrack?
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Any precipitation reports yet from these showers just starting to make landfall around Barrow, Liverpool n Morcambe?
EDIT - Sorry Chris R - just missed your post! Thats a good sign then, winteryness so close to the Irish Sea!
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Evening all. So are we looking at the trough moving NW to SE over Ulster at the moment for any precipitation later tonight and into tomorrow? Do we think it wil fizzle out as it moves East or make it to these parts?
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Yup, i reckon somewhere with a bit of altitude will get caught out tonight. Wonder if the snake pass will be open in the morn?
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GFS and NAE have just stuffed us, game over im afraid, always thought it was a long shot and suprised Laura Tobin changed her forecast on the basis of the 12z NAE in the first place although she was just covering all bases i suppose.
Not sure i get you? Friday morning looking pretty white on the NAE over this way :unsure:
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Frost already formed on the car roof here.
It was icy at 5.30 pm here. I drove back to Hebden Bridge from Brighouse through Queensbery and Oxenhope and it was white over on the tops. Quite tricky to drive. Temp was hovering about 0 degrees about 1,400 feet.
Wonder if we'll get clipped by this depression tonight and if it's cold enough sor some snow out of it if it does? My heart says yes but my head says No Snow....
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So where do people think the lowest overnight tempriture is going to be tonight and how cold?
I'll start with; Tulloch Bridge -1.1
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What a fantastic satelite picture there cookie! Where does it come from?
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Anyone know of any online resources plotting the spread of the radiation from Fukushima or even any projected spread model output out there in cyberspace? Bit macabre i know, sorry, just something we are doing at school as part of my current teacher training project placement...
Thanks
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Thanks John, another very informative post weighted just right for the semi novice like myself
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Great thread GP, Thank you. Credit where it's due too, you were the one talking about energy being thrown west into Europe, due to current global zonal wind data etc., some 48 hours ago were you not?
Bravo
Ned
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Does anyone give any credence to this report in which it suggests that the gulf stream is being affected by the oil in the gulf of Mexico?
http://www.rense.com/general91/OilSpill-CNR.pdf
oes anyone know of any further research into this or an up to date viewpoint?
Thanks
Ned
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93L looks a good bet to develop imho. I wonder what damage it could do to the mess in the gulf
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5.7 please
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Yes tomorrows possible snowfall is a very good example of how it can suddenly change. I've only just looked at the NAE and the 18Z is completely different to the 12Z in that the precip intensifies around the W Midlands. This is the complete opposite to what I thought would happen as I expected the front to weaken as it backed W.
You do have to feel sorry for the Met O because in these situations it makes forecasting virtually impossible. Having said this the uncertainity in the models makes it even more exciting to follow.
The NAE has shifted the whole lot north west by about 60 miles a run for the last 12 hours. The sweet spot seems to be right over me by this time tomorrow but i am not counting on it being the final position...back south by about 40 miles i would say
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Time to call it quits i think len!!
Nobody can complain about this winter..
But once again we are looking at chasing the cold...but the cold is not chasing us.
March will soon be upon us...Sun will be higher and a little more powerful. still, we still could see some wintry weather , but gone are the days of December and January.
Looking at the models we still have a period of uncertainty to contend with... (brings out the chocolate and cookies) Oh my god, i think i'm turning into....
The models are starting to show the possibility of further cold outbrakes towards the end of next week and i for one do not think that mid feb is the end of winter....
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GFS 18Z is a bitter run if you live in the atlantic becuase that where the cold artic air is going
GFS is following the ECM of earlier, bringing colder air in from the north (West/East) before this time next week and also setting up a cut off low towards the mid atlantic. For all of you with model fatigue out there, i think we are uncovering the next part of the plot
Not exactly the same by 180 admittedly, but hey....
The North Of England Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Any thoughts on whether Hebden B will get clear of the rain band this eve or will we be caught by the pivot? If the latter is the case I would certainly think we will be under water by morning.