Joe Bloggs

Yes. Check out the difference in the SLP charts between 9pm and 6am.. You can see why precipitation is more likely to be pushed inland west to east, later in the night.

Risky. if it all goes wrong then you’d be so tired and grumpy, as would I!

To those watching the radar - I doubt we’re going to see any serious convection until after midnight. Both Euro4 and GFS have it largely dry until about 3am. Then by 6am a band of snow showers developing across the south of the region. Charts from GFS op, GFS para and EURO 4, 6am It’s looking good. If it stays completely dry then it will be a big fail for these two big models. It’ll certainly be cold enough for snow away from the immediate coast. Euro4 snow accumulation also looks very good for the south of the region. Again note that no lying snow is forecast in Manchester before 3am. We will see, but nobody in the south of the region should be giving up hope before bedtime. The signal for snow is relatively strong. A cold westerly with a light wind flow is usually a very reliable snow maker for Greater Manchester, but it’s never guaranteed.

Hello mate. I know you’ve seen it already but EURO4’s best guess is as good as mine. Streamer developing approx 3am, in a line roughly Liverpool to Manchester, slowly sinking south to reach Cheshire by 9am. Good luck everyone - happy radar/lamppost watching

Not really., action not expected until 3am or so.

It's all about the showers tonight/tomorrow morning. If they fail to materialise, then it's toys out of the pram time. Today delivered (or didn't) exactly as expected - I know this as I've been glued to the charts. The real opportunity is tonight/tomorrow morning - if no snow comes then we can all rightly have a proper moan.

Will be a night for keeping an eye on the radar. EURO4 due shortly which will be out last real model hint before the actual event. After that, it's up to the Gods. With a pressure profile like this, somewhere is bound to get lucky.

Most model output suggests shower activity starting properly at 3am or so.

Back to snow in Manc City Centre, Appears colder.

aww. Could all end up being wrong with just a few fleeting showers near the Wirral! Does look promising for now.

Hello mate.. I'd suggest this is the best guess at the moment:- https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/29/basis06/ukuk/prec/19013009_2906.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK06_27_43.png Note the GFS op has (rather than the para) has consistently had the risk further SW.

Need to be very cautious.. but yes. They don’t kick in until 3am, peaking at 6am and continuing until mid morning potentially. The trajectory looks relatively narrow so some places could do very well, others less so. See the image... This is a real test for this model - I will be extremely impressed if we wake up to snow tomorrow morning.

06z EURO4 is a belter

ha we always get a bit emotional/paranoid/stressed in situations like this.

Same here. Literally the past 5 mins. This is city centre too.

Just turned to snow - Manchester City Centre. Will probably revert back to sleet/rain if the precipitation loses its intensity, it's that sort of day. I'm not sure why anyone's surprised by rain/sleet today - this was always going to be the case for most, the colder air isn't due until later. Fingers crossed for Irish Sea showers when it's properly cold - these still look likely for some.

GFS para - again, tomorrow morning one to watch. Everything crossed they have the convective zone spot on..

Morning all 00z EURO4 - if you look carefully there is a very unfortunate little slice in the Manchester area. NWS’s favourite word - altitude! Still looking good for a streamer though

The model is clearly picking up on the possibility of a streamer heading towards G Man and the Peak District.. https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/28/basis18/ukuk/prty/19013006_2818.gif

18z Euro4 .. snow cover 9am Wednesday, similar to the 12z

Manchester has these weird differences. Don’t worry you didn’t miss much!

18z GFS. Again there are differences between the op and the parallel run with the latter more bullish for snow with a keener westerly wind. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK18_39_25.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_39_25.png Odd.

Has been snowing here, despite my earlier report of freezing rain.

No! No! No! We want a westerly! I’m hoping the para will correct the op. Frankly we should know the wind direction by now, it’s madness that we don’t!

18z GFS op is less westerly, again! Will the para disagree? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_30_1.png