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Joe Bloggs

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  1. Joe Bloggs
    Sleety rain here. Not expecting any snow here until tomorrow evening now.
  2. Joe Bloggs
    Of course it is!
  3. Joe Bloggs
    Surely it HAS to snow at the airport very shortly? Given that temperature? Its a big shower
  4. Joe Bloggs
    It’s still 0C/-3C at Manchester Airport, so south Manchester could see snow from this big blob. Although not loving the reports from Wigan - seems hard work to get snow at the moment, even if the parameters seem perfect on paper. I’ll expect rain then any snow tonight is an unexpected surprise.
  5. Joe Bloggs
    Tomorrow is massively marginal if you’re below 100m. Overnight tomorrow however dew points and temps fall and snow should become more widespread.
  6. Joe Bloggs
    I have as well. Not fussed. Any snow we get daytime tomorrow is a bonus as far as I’m concerned.
  7. Joe Bloggs
    THIS!
  8. Joe Bloggs
    I’m guessing it must happen with rain too, would make no sense for it not to. We’ve definitely had a right soaking when the wind has been from the SE - in fact I noticed an event recently. Maybe it depends on the exact wind vector and wind-speed.
  9. Joe Bloggs
    It’s bizarre. I’d understand it if the precipitation was coming in FROM the east. Must be fairly complex physics involved. Never seems to be a problem when it’s rain involved - only snow! 2013 was a real pain in the backside for this.
  10. Joe Bloggs
    Snow here now too.
  11. Joe Bloggs
    12z EURO4 - some significant snow settling even across lowland Manchester. Similar to the 12z GFS para. Would be exciting if this verified.
  12. Joe Bloggs
    Compare the 2 charts - op vs para. This is why the wind direction matters so much. This isn't yet resolved, given the fact even at this late stage we have disagreement. Op : http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_45_25.png Para: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK12_45_25.png
  13. Joe Bloggs
    12z GFS para is better - more of a westerly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU12_42_1.png Edit - resulting in this for snow depths . A direct westerly flow means less of us miss out. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK12_45_25.png
  14. Joe Bloggs
    Even on GFS , I struggle to see how the bulk of the region will avoid showers come Wednesday morning. Always unpredictable this, but look at the likely instability & the flow trajectory... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_42_1.png
  15. Joe Bloggs
    Indeed. It's so fickle. My patch really needs a direct westerly flow, as does South Lancs. 12z GFS looks more promising for Merseyside & West Cheshire but it'll be a case of keeping an eye on the radar come the time!
  16. Joe Bloggs
    Very slight change on the 12z GFS - the flow is slightly more to the NW than W, so the focus of showers is more towards the west. Will see if the parallel run thinks the same shortly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_42_43.png
  17. Joe Bloggs
    Just saying! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK06_48_43.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK06_48_38.png A direct westerly tends to favour Greater Manchester/South Lancs/Peak District
  18. Joe Bloggs
    Yes, the focus is Tuesday night. You don’t even need to look at the precipitation charts, just look at the European SLP chart from GFS.
  19. Joe Bloggs
    Given the wind direction tomorrow night, this is the sort of thing I expect to see. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK00_54_43.png
  20. Joe Bloggs
    The BBC aren’t interested in any showers. The GFS charts most certainly are.. especially by 3am/6am Wednesday. We’ll see,
  21. Joe Bloggs
    I think in Manchester at least we’ll start off with heavy rain tomorrow, snow probably by evening rush hour. Personally I’m more interested in the showers which are likely to follow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. . At which point it’ll be properly cold... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU00_48_1.png
  22. Joe Bloggs
    18z GFS is bloody brilliant for our patch. Loads of showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_57_1.png
  23. Joe Bloggs
    Beware the Manchester SE’ly rain shadow. It’s rare to get settling snow in Greater Manchester or North Cheshire when the wind is coming from the SE, even when the precipitation is coming up from the SW. You’ll need a physicist to explain why, but it just doesn’t happen. The rest of the region could do ok though, and Tuesday/Tuesday night looking good for all right now.
  24. Joe Bloggs
    Sleet has turned to snow with a covering developing
  25. Joe Bloggs
    Sleeting here. Would be nice to have snow when the temp is -2C outside
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