Joe Bloggs

Of course us Mancunians all remember the “big once in a lifetime” snow event of Jan 2010. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2010/cfsr/CFSR_1_2010010500_1.png https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2010/cfsr/CFSR_1_2010010500_2.png Surprisingly modest uppers but of course we had deeply entrenched surface cold back then. Basically with the upcoming spell I’d feel much better if 850s were around -7C or -8C. With a strong Greenland ridge and a slack westerly that gives much more of the region a chance at the white stuff, otherwise it’s a hills only affair.

FWIW, all these setups gave convective, Irish Sea lying snow to lowland South Manchester https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2015/cfsr/CFSR_1_2015012906_1.png https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2015/cfsr/CFSR_1_2015012906_2.png https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2019/cfsr/CFSR_1_2019013006_1.png https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2019/cfsr/CFSR_1_2019013006_2.png https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2004/cfsr/CFSR_1_2004122518_1.png https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2004/cfsr/CFSR_1_2004122518_2.png Purely for comparison purposes! We need uppers -7C or lower IMO.

Yes for convective snow off a warm Irish Sea we need to see the uppers a bit lower than currently forecast. If you look at the archive charts from December 2009 we had an initial push of genuine Arctic air, approaching -10C at 850 hPa which really helped things along. It would be a huge blow if all we get is rain from such a brilliant setup. Either way it’s looking interesting and there are plenty of times for upgrades and downgrades to the fine details.

Morning all Just had a look at the 06z GFS and it’s the most promising synoptic setup for snow in NW England since Dec 2009/2010 I suspect. For Manchester in particular, a slack, WNW’ly flow with a solid Greenland block is one of our best setups for snow streamers - we can say that from experience. The biggest risk at the moment is that despite the stunning synoptics - the air is simply not cold enough. This would be a huge upset, especially as the charts have a real Dec 2009 look about them at the moment which provided convective lying snow in Manchester City centre. I know uppers aren’t everything but here at 40m ASL in South Manchester I’d prefer 850s closer to -10C than -5C. The flow looks too warm currently. Interesting times ahead. If you’re at elevation I’d maybe start getting excited.

Hi all, Long time lurker here just popping in to say hello. Drove to Buxton today to see some proper snow and it didn’t disappoint, had a lovely walk up from Poole’s Cavern through the country park. Driving home was a bit tricky, the A6 was a mess through Dove Holes, and there was a very impressive covering through Chapel, Whaley and even more modest altitudes like New Mills and Disley. The lying snow line was just below High Lane, once into Hazel Grove no lying snow whatsoever. All good fun and lovely to see.

The southern tip of them yes But they may die out

Yes agreed.. the showers to the NW of Hull are the ones to watch for Manchester. The one currently over North Cheshire came inland over Hull itself so the second batch could be more favourable.

There’s a chance that as the winds swing round more to a NE’ly, some of those beefier showers in the NE at present could move further south and west. Thats if they stay intact - they may well not make it this far. Either way, definitely the risk of some further showers through the day today.

More of a NE’ly later this afternoon.

Unbelievable ! Fresh covering of snow here - totally unforecast! Not just a tiny bit either ! Well done to the people who said watch out to the east for showers.

This is such a good post. A “cold westerly” delivers to lowland south Manchester once every 4-5 years or so. It is just about the only setup which delivers here, certainly more than a light dusting. Every time it happens the Met Office always underplays it and it often comes as a surprise - I genuinely think yesterday morning warranted an amber warning here but the streamer was barely mentioned on forecasts the day before. Sometimes local knowledge is the best forecast - predicting convective streamers relies on knowing what has delivered in the past, given a very specific wind direction and speed.

Less melting in south Manc today compared to yesterday! Surprised by this. Snow amounts tonight barely changed from this morning. Must be drier air.

Take solace that locations in the NW that usually miss out (compared to your patch) , got an absolute pasting yesterday. Wasn’t slushy for us! I’m allowed to boast as 99% of the time north and east Manchester do better than here.

Sunday looks too mild for most of us I think. Yes quite an active front is picked up on the GFS at least, but dewpoints go above freezing pretty quickly. Transitory snow possible for high ground but nothing more (unless things change nearer the time which they may do)

Hello No! Has been a lot of thawing today but we had so much in the first place a lot has lasted too. I doubt there’s any left in the city centre. Tonight its all freezing over

A little snow shower in progress here. None of us should expect much convective activity tonight - nothing is forecast bar a couple of isolated showers. Edit - looking at the radar, coastal areas may catch a few showers over the next couple of hours

Withington, near the Christie.

I doubt there is much left in the city centre but plenty left here. We had a really heavy fall - over 10cm. There is some melting today but it’ll all refreeze tonight. Tomorrow morning will be a nightmare, but because of ice, not snow.

Some photos from South Manchester this morning, at 40m ASL ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC snowfall! So, so chuffed. Well done to the Euro4 and GFS.

Big respect to EURO4. It nailed this.

Most since Jan 2010 here. Very significant fall. Coming down thick and fast.

Yesssssssssss Its only gone and bloody happened hasn’t it !!! Winter wonderland.

Yes. Check out the difference in the SLP charts between 9pm and 6am.. You can see why precipitation is more likely to be pushed inland west to east, later in the night.

Risky. if it all goes wrong then you’d be so tired and grumpy, as would I!

To those watching the radar - I doubt we’re going to see any serious convection until after midnight. Both Euro4 and GFS have it largely dry until about 3am. Then by 6am a band of snow showers developing across the south of the region. Charts from GFS op, GFS para and EURO 4, 6am It’s looking good. If it stays completely dry then it will be a big fail for these two big models. It’ll certainly be cold enough for snow away from the immediate coast. Euro4 snow accumulation also looks very good for the south of the region. Again note that no lying snow is forecast in Manchester before 3am. We will see, but nobody in the south of the region should be giving up hope before bedtime. The signal for snow is relatively strong. A cold westerly with a light wind flow is usually a very reliable snow maker for Greater Manchester, but it’s never guaranteed.