Joe Bloggs

I think those forecasts are based on the EPS which must still have a snow signal for tonight.

6z EURO4 has removed most snow potential for tonight sadly.. a few showers around 7/8am tomorrow though . Tonight’s potential seems to be evaporating but maybe not all is lost - will be interesting to hear from Kasim later.

But 2 nights running some areas in the south of the region have done better than forecast and received more snow when very little or none was forecast.

Yep no complaints here. Still have some lying snow in Withington and I’m impressed how much cover there is down the A34 towards Cheadle.

Yes possibly! Tbh I was surprised when I saw the GFS parameters , most other output looks ok, fingers crossed there’ll be an upgrade in time for the 06z. The MetO app shows light snow from 4-8am with a temp of 0C , so UKV must be ok too.

Euro4 shows snow lying by 9am tomorrow for most of the region apart from areas directly on the coast. Central Lancs the sweet spot, down towards G Man. Icon similar. GFS however looks a bit marginal and shows dewpoints above freezing for some of us. lots to keep an eye on! ICON: EURO4 : Gfs

Hi Joe , interesting post and I agree. Convective easterlies can actually deliver the goods for this part of the world, basically the further east you are in the region the better though. Nowhere near as much as east of the Pennines but sometimes we can do surprisingly well with streamers setting up from the Humber up the M62 corridor. Frontal snow is another story. When the wind is from an easterly quarter many parts of the NW miss out on frontal events (mainly Manchester and Cheshire) even if snow is forecast by the pros. It’s infuriating but gaps appear on the radar nearly every single time, especially if the wind is from the SE (nightmare scenario). Western parts of the region then tend to do better than those further east. This is why Manchester is often poorly placed for snow, we always miss out on easterly frontal events. Every time.

Kasim, your posts are absolutely brilliant and you’ve got the past couple of nights spot on. Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts, would really appreciate if you could do the same tomorrow. South Manchester has done unusually well so far and I’m hoping for more snow on Thursday now. I can see that the UKV (or is it Mogreps) must be improving as my MetO app is showing snow here on Thursday from midnight to 3pm, with a temp of -1C to begin with. This outlook will change frequently as more runs come out.

Some pics - a very decent effort for my very low lying part of Manchester!

South Manchester is turning into a winter wonderland. Absolutely brilliant. If the temp stays low we could do very well out of this.

Looking at the radar Manchester is going to take a direct hit surely? Could be a good event this, just need the temp to stay down.

Snowing here and the radar looks great! Settling instantly.

I look forward to reading your nowcast! Yes my position here in south Manchester didn’t mean I had to walk (yes walk) very far to see more snow today. Good to see the snow deserts of Sale, Altrincham, Salford, Wigan getting the most snow yesterday. About time.

Ridiculously fine margins last night. Withington area had barely anything but Fletcher Moss near the Mersey had more of a covering.

Nice to see East Lancs getting some snow. Typical convective WSW’ly flow, dry as a bone down here in Manchester.

Another beefy shower knocking on the door of West Manchester now. Maybe some afternoon surprises before milder weather kicks in during the evening.

Well what a wonderful surprise that was. A moderate to heavy snow shower hit us here head on. It came down like feathers and even started to settle. Merry Christmas to all on Net Weather

Snowing in Heaton Moor , Stockport. An official white Christmas in Manchester (Ringway) I’d assume. First since 2004.

That shows the NW getting buried. Must be faulty!

It doesn't help that the low is currently wrapped up in very mild air moving up the eastern seaboard as we speak. Check out a t+0 850 hPa chart and you’ll see all those horrible orange colours. Yes it gets much colder as it moves through the Greenland region but our starting position isn’t great. In terms of the GFS 2m temps & dewpoint projections - personally I’d urge significant caution with those in the medium range. They’re far more useful when forecasting within 48 hours. I suspect they’re a bit sketchy in the longer term.

No complaints about the 00z output from me. A blocked Atlantic across the board. Yes the cold air isn’t QUITE there for the period immediately after Christmas but that could well get upgraded and anywhere with altitude, especially in the north, may strike it lucky. Normally at this stage, into FI, we’d be seeing signs of the ridge flattening with the Atlantic taking over. It’s really reassuring to see continued bouts of blocking continuing to crop up - a signal that this could be a fairly extended spell of below average temps if we’re lucky. It would be really beneficial for us if we could somehow get the synoptics to align to deliver some proper Arctic air (-10C at 850 hPa) at some stage. This would allow more surface cooling and could make a difference when it comes to more marginal events down the line. As for NWS’s comments about easterlies - yes these benefit the Pennines, but for large areas of the NW, especially closer to the Irish Sea, a deep cold convective WNW’ly can actually be our biggest snow maker - think December 2009. Definitely the most interesting model watching for a considerable time. Reminds me a bit of the run up to December 2009 when it looked consistently promising for days on end - the air was just that bit colder back then to give more guaranteed snow opportunities for lower elevations. All in all it’s looking very good.

I saw your post before you deleted it. To answer your question - look at the progression of the low moving up the eastern seaboard in 12 hours time with the all the warm air wrapped up in it. It’s the same low which will pull south into our NW’ly flow just after Christmas. Not helpful for the uppers. That’s not me saying it won’t snow but agreeing with bluearmy’s point that it’s a factor.

Yes. Our troublemaker for just after Christmas (uppers-gate) is shown very nicely on the 18z GFS moving off the eastern seaboard in less than 12 hours time. Some quite warm air wrapped up in the system.

The wet bulb freezing level is another good parameter to use. This data is certainly available for the GFS, not sure about the other models. Again only very reliable at relatively short range. 300 metres or lower is a very strong indicator for snow.

^^^^^ You are right that all NW flows are individual and these things are unpredictable. However we do see a few patterns repeating time and time again... - a very strong NW’ly wind = increased chance of hail/graupel showers with limited streamer potential. - NNW’ly flow, Merseyside/Wirral best placed NW’ly - South Cheshire/Crewe, genuine Cheshire gap effect WNW’ly - South Manchester/Stockport/Peak District W’ly - Larger areas of the NW Then on the rarer occasions when we get a very cold WSW’ly more northern parts of the region are primed for showers. Of course we need some decent cold air in place too - the parameters for snow are very complex and as you say aren’t limited to 850’s. Interesting times.