Cheshire Freeze

Cue the Dan Corbett 'you see those blues oozing their way in from the east, rather like 'bumph' someone's dropped a tin of Dulux, bumping it's way against that ribbon of mild, rather like a piece of string being pulled from both sides'

I wouldn't bring that one up again...I already went there yesterday I cannot disagree with anything you have said there. I've already noted the influence of the Azores HP in that day 10 ECM mean...it is a concern.

Yes, read on the other side that we achieved a technical SSW by the very slightest of margins!

Yes, De Bilt should be COLD I disagree that the day 10 mean chart is excellent though. There will be a fair few members in there which extend the Azores high NE and pull the main block S, jet over the top etc. It's something we ideally want to see eradicated in future runs IMO as it has been hinted at within GFS runs too. The good news is we have plenty of time until that point for amendments (for the better) to take place.

It's good in the medium timeframes but out at day 10 the mean is iffy...to be more specific, interference from the Azores high rather than a continual stream of disrupting lows I think Steve Murr touched on this earlier. This isn't an issue if there is less pressure from the Canadian lobe of vortex and the Azores high can be displaced slightly further north as this wouldn't preclude a second wave of cold from the east. Too far south, however, and it's goodnight Vienna to a more sustained easterly outbreak. In terms of output later on today I'd A) like to see less interference from the Azores HP around day 10 and if it is to interfere, let's B) see if we can give it a nudge to a higher latitude. On balance, given the factors we have going in our favour at present compared to earlier on & reduced intensity of the strat vortex, I believe we may actually see the further outlook evolve into something more favourable as time progresses (over the next few days). As ever, time will tell.

Aye but given we're now into Feb we need this one to land....we don't have the wriggle room we would have had on the 1st of Jan. The more mileage we can get out of the first attempt (144 hrs onwards) the better. Hopefully we can improve the shape and posture of that HP.

Indeed... However watch the uppers get moderated over the continent between 300-336 hrs. That would never have happened mid January and is a sure sign that meteorological spring is not far away at that point. Prefer my cold from the NE after mid Feb to negate that issue!

I agree, not just that but it's also not ideal to be having air mixed in from Greece & SEwards. We could do with seeing the HP sorting out it's 'saggy bottom' and lifting its tail a little more. Would also make it more effective at maintaining a cold feed of uppers.

Near miss in terms of a direct hit of the coldest uppers, but unlike GFS we get a decent snow event with attendant occluding front traversing the UK

We may not need a correction west- as Steve Murr has pointed out several times it's the second attempt post 144 hrs that looks to pull the deep cold pool westwards....you can see this on the 12z GFS... 144...all too far E as per UKMO 180...we're in the E'ly flow Could be an interesting FI as that HP starts to extend N&W

CFS has been steadfast about a blocked March over the past month or so, just like it was in 2013. I assumed this was due to a SSW as soon as I saw the trend emerge Seems to be very consistent with the location of the potential blocking too. About as Greenland based as you can reasonably hope for.

I've had this one referenced to me before now... Ooooops just seen the winter part of the thread! Never mind hahaha

Love that road, some of the most stunning scenery around both Congleton-Buxton and Leek-Buxton

Lovely drive up there. Was that the Roaches you drove past in first vid on the left? Hard to tell because of being snow covered. No mistaking them normally!

Most of them offer a perturbed trop vortex though, some highly so. Overriding signal in the first few I've looked at for a potential -AO which is miles better than a big purple blob sat over the pole.

No strat help?

But for how long Blue? All things considered, it doesn't look a sustainable set up to me in the long run. It's just as probable we're seeing an over reaction to the signal to drop a lobe of vortex back to the Canadian sector- wouldn't be the first time.

This has 95% always been the case with the NWP- I've said it before and been shouted down for my troubles but it's mostly true. No idea why it's the case.

Differently. As I said, not a chance the ensembles have a clue how the longer range will pan out when there is so much complexity of the evolution, regardless of resolution.

Now now, don't be greedy- you've already got 160m on your side!

Sold

As I tried to convey earlier, everything is on the table at this time. I don't trust for one minute the EPS or the GEFS, that be whether they show cold in the extended or mild in the extended. We've seen enough ensemble suite flips this winter for it to be a lesson to everyone, I should think.

Me @Mucka and @Steve Murr are interested

Doesn't actually feel that cold out there to me this evening. This despite a temperature of 1.1 and a -2 DP Got up to 5.1C here today with a DP of 1.9. Don't understand how anyone on low ground kept a negative DP today.

To look at the medium-further range modelling at this moment and take it at 'face value' is quite frankly naive IMO. Yes we can only comment on what is in front of us BUT the mid to longer term is going to evolve further over the coming days and what we see at the moment as a WB -NAO and the Atlantic sector not playing ball will also change. We're in the process of rolling the dice at the minute and we have to hope we at least hit a couple of higher values or a double- even a double 6 isn't out of the question at this range.