Cheshire Freeze

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=54275

GFS cranks up the winds a tad over the 6z It looks dicey for Wirral/Merseyside area

Just read on the other side that the beeb are now suggesting up to 90 mph? Could be a red going out later if that's the case.

On to the Arome hi res... Similar areas at risk to GFS and Arpege...gusts not showing as high as Arpege however. 60-70 mph fairly common place even inland across NW England and N Midlands. Perhaps touching 75-80 mph as the system tracks off towards the E of the UK in the afternoon.

On to the Arpege 0z... I make this around 90 mph gust wise slamming into NW England It then follows through into the E Midlands mid afternoon I think it will be down to the hi res models the UKMO use as to whether a red warning goes live later on for coastal areas. If they see 90 mph gusts then one will be issued, if not then it'll probably stay as amber.

Slightly more obvious ridging thrown NE on the 0z GFS UKMO with a slight wedge at 144 One of those situations where we could evolve to cold quite quickly

Latest from the 0z GFS Nasty

Hi res Hirlam goes for sustained 40-45mph winds across populated N England/N Midlands later Thurs morning Could be especially grim for coastal Wirral/Merseyside an hour or so earlier with sustained 55 mph winds a possibility

That is impressive

Some talk of the Feb 2014 storm earlier...I hadn't realised that one was thought to have formed a sting jet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tini Guess it tallies with what was seen on the ground....even has its own Wikipedia page. We even get a mention... ''Crewe railway station evacuated after winds blew roof panels onto the overhead electricity cables causing fires, the station was closed and 500 passengers evacuated.[14]''

BBC weather showing wind gusts at 61 mph for here at the moment. Should be interesting to see how this one develops.

Yep, my experiences are the same. As I said, that wind direction is a destructive one for these parts.

At face value, if that 12z GFS is close to the mark, I suspect 80 mph would be hit here.

The 12z GFS funnels winds down the Cheshire gap. From experience, when this happens it's about the nastiest wind direction you can get for here and causes all sorts of havoc Even what appears to be a moderate breeze from that direction here can be very gusty

Yep, that was the one. Trees down all over the show too. It was like a constant roar outside, even when you thought you weren't in the midst of the strongest gusts. In the top 10 of my life time weather highlights anyway.

Last time we were well inside an amber warning for wind like this was Feb 2014. Parts of coastal NW England had a red warning for wind. Won't forget that day in a hurry.

Latest GFS run not totally out of the blue given the suggestions of a cold March for a number of weeks now. Also, here was last night's GEFS ensemble mean for pressure anomaly at day 16 Fits in very well with the tail end of the 0z run shown below

It goes into full on muppet mode in FI with disrupting troughing and widespread -8 uppers That run in FI is pretty much March 2013

Bang on cue for first day of meteorological spring GFS wants to usher in winter

Oh hang on, what's this... GFS has started to pick up on that ridge moving out of Canada which can be traced back to day 8. It's enough on this run to initiate something of interest.

Seems to be snowing here properly now, moderate sized flakes

Light snow falling here

Corresponding 850's anomaly Here is the corresponding run from 24 hours ago Note the signal for Greenland warmth and our cold plunge from the NE

The CFS was actually the one model that wasn't interested at all in a high lat blocked December and also it never had February down as being of note in this respect. The only month it flirted with high latitude heights was January. The last time I saw the model so stubborn in its outlook (with a similar recurring anomaly profile) was prior to March 2013. Not saying that will be the case this time...merely pointing it out.

Very good chance that the latter stages of GFS FI and ECM at 240 hours are starting to pick up a signal. The end of Feb into March has been picked up by a few on here for the potential to be of some interest. Meanwhile CFS continues its seemingly ever present March signal... I make that at least a solid month of this model showing the same scenario now (bar the odd run here and there as it runs 4 times a day). I bet the NOAA averaged charts look very tasty Certainly potential.....despite being WB at present