Cheshire Freeze

Some very cold night time temperatures shown on the 12z GFS

CFS sees June as potentially quite plumetastic In sync with the GLOSEA model RE LP to west and HP to east

This looks quite cold from the GFS 18z at 144 hours

Hard to see this coming off as shown on the 12z...these thicknesses are bordering on insane for almost May (by that point)

Modoki El Nino and an E'ly QBO- pretty much the holy grail winter drivers I believe? If you're of the cold persuasion may I add.

Hard to tell from the pressure anomaly Possibly a slight bias towards continent meets Atlantic? I'll just add, I feel like this is first time in many summers that there is the potential for a 1995 scenario, maybe even a '76. This is, of course, not saying it's likely.

Quite simple really, the closer to ENSO neutral we stay the higher the likelihood of a hot, dry summer with HP lingering around to our immediate S and E. The further away from ENSO neutral we go, the more chance of seeing some 'weather'. It's no coincidence that this benign spell of weather (stretching from autumn last year) has coincided with a weak ENSO. Either way, I think the greatest potential for a hot spell is towards early summer with us descending into an earlier autumn this year. EDIT: updated today, the Metoffice GLOSEA model looks to show slightly wetter than average conditions throughout the summer months

A case of too much of a good thing too soon.

Well what can I say? We struggled to get uppers as low as this throughout most of the winter A bit of a nudge west of that high and we'd be looking at some decent polar based convection

Temperature nosediving here. Really tumbling. 16C now

The way it's looking, the second half of spring will be colder than the first. Especially if the forecast cold nights come off as forecast.

Hit a high of 22.4C here today. Lovely jubbly. Clouding over now and cooling down too. 17.9C at present.

Hanging on to the last bit of sun here

No, I don't. I'm a convective weather fan. Let's get some people out of NSC, even if N'ly based convection is weaker than the summer S'ly counterpart. Plus we've been under a mainly HP dominated regime for months and months and months. Today is lovely and the warmth feels good, but let's have some actual weather

My only wish is if it is going to turn cold from the N, the HP out west doesn't interfere too much. That way we can get more in the way of an unstable N'ly and set off some convection. -6 uppers and some strong solar input could produce some nice skies.

I always do my best to get rid of queen wasps when I see them. Squished pretty much straight away. To be honest, I can't believe there are people that let them go about their business, they are a pest nothing more nothing less.

As requested by @Dami, a new thread for the new convective season. Reckon I'll be spending a bit of time in here

Just a note- the ECM is just as severe as GFS has been showing. It doesn't matter as it's shown at day 10 but pressure is rising up towards Greenland. Day 11 would show us at the mercy of Scandi troughing and N Atlantic/Greenland heights. If we're to get a N'ly I just hope we get as clean a one as possible so that we get to see some great convective cloudscapes like at the end of April last year.

Absolutely lashed it down here around 10ish. Wondered where it had come from as the road became a river!

Nooooooo Hammond will be a sore miss IMO...one of the better presenters for sure.

Brilliant day of weather that was. Hail, sleet, snow, thunder and some brilliant cloudscapes. As a weather enthusiast I have absolutely no idea how you could turn your nose up at a day such as that was.

Maybe a lot of people realise what has tended to follow settled/warm March and Aprils in recent years! One does get the impression we're going to face an extended spell of very wet weather at some point after this repeating Azores HP led pattern which has been in control for months and months. I just hope it breaks over the summer/autumn rather than ruining another winter next year!

Brilliant, subject closed then

Do you know how NWP works? We have seen such wintry spells in March before...we have historical evidence...some of such from just 4 years ago. This allied to the fact a solid maths based model can churn out such scenarios is proof enough for me. Don't know what else you require? You're arguing over nothing and to pick him up on something so trivial was just pointless.

Anything that is shown within the NWP is theoretically possible, regardless of the timeframes involved. So yes, it's proof that the back end of March can deliver wintry conditions (with uppers comparable to Dec 2010). Don't know why you have tried to show him up there?