Cheshire Freeze

You have to say, the 12z GFS looks like 2007 on steroids. Means nothing this early on though. Still suspect we'll see an improvement in the modelling as summer proper approaches.

Well no drought worries for a while if that 12 GFS run is close to the mark. Some nice slack LP systems in FI too which would promote some decent convection.

I don't think we'll end up with a -QBO at the lower levels but further up the QBO will be easterly. Slight concern is that I've read (on here) it's the QBO in the lower levels which has the greatest effect on the trop as the previous QBO state is 'flushed out' ahead of the reversal. I don't profess to be a QBO expert though What I will say though, going beyond next winter...next year could very well be another '8' summer i.e washout. Peak E'ly QBO will probably coincide with summer onset. Funny how these things line up.

I did read something about the 2010/2011 winter in that regard. May have been on here with the strat experts. Something about the rapid and abrupt break up of the winter PV (2010) imprinting on the early winter vortex of the next season (2010/2011). Though I'm not 100% sure.

If they can swerve Cheshire they will swerve Cheshire lol Didn't really get the full brunt of that 2015 storm. It erupted just S of here over Shrops and carried on developing overhead- I saw some stunning rapid convective development but areas further N got the main brunt.

Pretty sure I've never witnessed a super cell personally. Struggle to see a basic thunderstorm here. I can still remember feeling so crap during that 2012 event...hopelessly watching the Midlands get battered when here we got zilch

Contrary to the post above, the 18z looks *in the main* quite cool and wet. That is apart from a warm blip early next week Low to mid 20's possible for a day or so

Summer 1976 from the reports I've read/heard about. Far too hot, far too dry.

I find it quite striking that the last few winters have coincided with an uptick in solar activity (relative to levels seen around the last cold winter cluster) and the propensity for striking ENSO events. Fitting like a glove come to mind.

It could be... We've been in a predominantly dry pattern since at least early autumn last year. History shows us that these patterns rarely last more than 12 months at most. Which means we are likely to see a switch at some point in the near future. Pinning this likely transition down is tricky though.

Quite possibly. I'm of the opinion that there will be a couple of periods of hot weather this summer. At this juncture, however, I just cannot see it being that dry. Hopefully we get a couple of decent MCS events!

I think a warm, possibly wet summer may be on the cards. When you get systems throwing fronts up from the SW at this time of year they can carry ABUNDANT moisture. We're seeing signs in the modelling that this may be a pattern to come. I'll also add, it remains a distinct possibility within the larger set up that we see mean troughing centred far enough west that we actually have a hot summer with repeated SE'lys.

Last thing I heard, the ECM long ranger was going for Modoki Nino by October

GFS 6z turns very wet deeper into FI through the pattern I mentioned as a possibility the other day i.e LP encroaching up from the SW. A real risk whilst you've got heights around Greenland. On the other hand, if we saw HP migrate even further W (towards the Canadian side) it would encourage ridging up through (and possibly just to the E) of the UK.

I can't recall a May with N blocking as strong as what is shown on the ECM and GFS this evening. Even 1996 isn't as spectacular. It really is eye catching. On the plus side, the S of the country may eventually get some useful rain as pressure lowers to the SW and slow moving fronts are propelled N across the southern half of the UK. The N would tend to be drier in such a scenario.

We had some heavy snow here. Left a slight covering on roofs and cars. Any precipitation that comes your way tonight should be all snow!

We have a covering of snow here on roofs and cars! I had a feeling I'd see something tonight

Anyone under that clump heading towards here?? Bet nobody was expecting this. DP still below 0 here and precipitation incoming!

Yep seems to be closing in on southern parts of NW England now. Wonder if I can get any flakes from this imminent shower?

Worth noting a fair few of the hi res models bring a batch of showers into southern parts between 2-4am. Could be some sleet and snow in these.

That was the year with a baking hot July IIRC.. Yes just checked..1996 had a very warm period in July from mid month-ish

A lot of N blocking being shown on the extended modelling now Can anyone remember when we last saw blocking as prevalent as this in May?

I was just about to say...the last update of the GLOSEA model hinted at an Atlantic meets continent type summer...so yes I would say at this point it looks possible we may see a warm, thundery summer. Then again, it's entirely plausible (as we see and have seen many times) that the seasonal models are just taking a nearer time signal and extrapolating that into a full seasonal average. In fact, with that scenario we run the risk of going very very wet eventually.

It amazes me from how far away you can zoom into something with a camera these days. You'd think you were only a mile or so away from there when you'd zoomed in.

Post cold shot, there are some stunning synoptics emerging through FI (if it was winter). All looks a bit familiar with N blocking taking hold as we head into May, with the jet pushed well south