Cheshire Freeze

2005-2006 was, at times, very close to seeing some special winter weather. The HP trying to build to our E was a common theme but it never managed to manifest enough to gain a proper foothold. There was an early March cold spell also IIRC.

Was just thinking the same. One third of summer almost gone and not a single rumble. In fact almost 12 months have gone by since the last one!

You've just described the SLP ensemble mean, surely?

Now, if we could just get that lovely LP slap bang over the UK as shown on the 18 z here... .....There would be some lovely home grown afternoon thunderstorms, enhanced by CZ formation. The issue is we always see this at 6/7 days out then come the time the LP is shunted N and we're left with scattered light showers (as we saw happen a few weeks back). I miss the days of ripe storm days like shown in the chart above.

I don't remember things being like this when I was a kid. I can remember consecutive years of memorable storms and a few night time events chucked in for good measure too. Never known anything like the period we are in at present. It's an effort to get anything. It cannot be normal to be going whole 12 month periods without any thunder surely.

Starting to drop here now at last and I can feel the slightest of breezes through my window. 20.8C last update, down from 22.3C an hour ago.

Sky seems to be stabilising here so can't see anything kicking off now. Some towering moving off to the east but for here it looks to be yet another bust.

In my years of model watching, I have never ever seen UK CAPE and LI values showing this at 24 hrs out I know these parameters mean little in isolation but my word, if something does initiate it'll have untold amounts of energy to draw from

Well it's the solstice tomorrow...so pretty much there (at longest day)

Finally there pretty much. The time of longest day length. Sunrise will start to draw out pretty much from now onwards and evenings will follow suit shortly after. I usually notice evenings drawing in around or just after my birthday in mid July, becoming more evident by the end of the month.

Madonna, is that you?!

Some insane charts being banded about by the GFS for Wed, 18z brings some of the Midlands into the game too...however we all know how it will pan out as the event nears! Usually ends in a downgrade! This is as extreme as I can remember seeing CAPE charts in the UK Precipitation looks to be scattered though

Modification of the lower levels (locally due to onshore winds), change of airmass, cloud cover etc. It's not just as simple as looking at the uppers, unfortunately. You can see from that chart that the winds have backed in accordance with the approaching front. 21C may be a smidgen undercooked but only by a degree or two I would suggest.

Yes was just about to post this. It now looks as though today may have been the peak of this spell (for the foreseeable). Just a matter of waiting for the next plume to show up now, (as it inevitably will) given the long wave pattern we appear to be in. GFS takes us towards a properly wet pattern by day 8... it would be some useful rain by that point

The ridging has been all wrong for classic thundery outbreaks thus far. I haven't had thunder since last year. Basically we've had heat but nothing to show for it thus far. This is because of the way we are seeing perpetual ridging of the Azores HP rather than a low pressure system halted to our W with HP to our E. We're in a classic summer '76 pattern at the moment...hot and dry.

And Crewe. Don't forget Crewe

Happens all the time in winter, and usually ends up with the least seasonal, least interesting scenario winning out lol!

No storms here yet Dami...as if it would be any other way

Hard to tell whether GFS is being too trigger happy and following the trend we've seen for a while now with the modelling (overamplification in the later stages of runs) or whether this overshooting of HP will become a firming trend as we progress through June Day 7 shows us the ridging HP across the UK bringing predominantly dry, settled and warm weather However by day 9 we can already see a gain in latitude of the HP with the jet starting to creep underneath the HP From that point it's a matter of when not if pressure falls from the SW... Something to keep tabs on over the next week or so. Also keep an eye on the CFS mean for July, along with the other longer range forecasting tools to see whether we can get any sort of convergence of ideas for the longer range. At present, the CFS has trended towards a mean mid Atlantic ridge- cooler than some would like perhaps but not necessarily that unsettled.

You're making me all nostalgic! Yes the thing I remember about the period is the icicles as I'd never really seen them 'in the flesh' before so to speak. I remember them hanging down off the front of car number plates too. Really was a great bit of winter weather.

All depends on what happens around this critical point IMO This is day 8- The 12z shows the perfect scenario where you get enough split of the jet to enable the high pressure to stay in situ for days on end. However, should there be less of a tendency for that inflection of the jet (up through Iceland) then we'd either have a scenario where the HP is readily flattened and thus letting a NW/SE split occur (very common) or a scenario where too much jet energy is being modelled in the northern arm and we see mean jet energy shift S and allow an 'overshoot' of the HP with LP eventually encroaching from the SW. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out because the 12z GFS is advocating a prolonged period of dry and warm weather...

Surprised the MetOffice don't have a wind warning out for tomorrow. That low seems to be deepening more with every model run. 50-60mph looks possible across the region tomorrow now. Probably enough to take trees in full leaf down.

That makes no sense, the post above states 'warm, dry weather to dominate for a few days' ?? Also warm doesn't necessarily mean dry- in fact for the N the metoffice says remaining wet for the end of the week. The S should be drier though. ''Wednesday will see a brief drier and brighter interlude, before rain spreads in from the southwest later and into Thursday. Briefly drier and brighter on Friday, before rain arrives later''

Further on towards days 9 and 10, the GFS follows the ECM by showing HP to ridge N through the UK which would allow some warm, dry weather to dominate for a few days However, as I suspected would be the case following on from the ECM day 10 chart, we end up with HP 'overshooting' and allowing LP back in from the SW All a long way out for now though. I would say the more settled spell of weather shown towards days 9&10 has a fairly decent chance of occurring though given some model consensus.

Never seen anything like this progged in June before The 18z GFS is an insane run