Cheshire Freeze

Perturbation 1 gets the idea

Mean pressure anomaly day 11ish Nice Greenland anomaly there Arguably even better by 300 hours, with slight whiff of Scandi trough

Striking retrogressive anomaly by 264 hrs within the 0z GEFS suite

Vortex wanting to shift down to the Siberian side as we enter FI beyond 200 hrs ish. Will we see the trend of the GEFS of recent manifest down the line? That is N Atlantic/Greenland heights.

Could see the Scandi high reinforced here...Azores high is merging at a more N'ly latitude and you can see a recurve of heights up towards Iceland and beyond Mucka..snap! Saying the same thing in different ways...

I posted the mean on the page behind a few mins back Mucka. It's very good indeed...as I expected it may well be.

Entirely plausible. I don't think it's beyond expectations that as we get further into February we see a 'strip' of heights emerge somewhere in the corridor Greenland-Iceland-Scandi Waiting to see the GEFS pressure anomaly mean in the days 14-16 range. EDIT: I have good news ; )

Consistent as consistent can be Feb

What it does do is make the ECM solution less far fetched. Let's just hope the ECM doesn't have this nailed and the 18z is as far as we push with the Azores high influence.

Yep...my thoughts aswell. When that happens- more jet over the top as is happening by 132 hrs Remember, that Iberian low clearing quicker isn't always necessarily better in instances like these as it was encouraging the jet to head further SE. If we're not careful, that whacky ECM run won't seem so whacky. You walk a tightrope when the Azores high starts to muscle in on the equation...can be a help but also a hindrance.

Yes there is potential going forward...less of a sinking look to the HP. The UKMO has little of a cold pool for the initially E'ly attempt but I'm looking beyond this first attempt now and have been for a day or two.

Aye, I'm beginning to think this may be a more prolonged below average spell when all said and done. Obviously, the further towards March we go, 'below average' cuts the mustard less and less for the south. However, I think we stand a fair chance of advecting some sufficient uppers at some point, in tandem with a more conducive height profile for convective or frontal activity...most of us crave snowfall after all.

Shown here (this at day16)...Fairly significant signal for the Greenland heights and slight hints of European troughing

I don't know Feb, I don't use them...I just monitor the readily available CFS charts on Meteociel. I just had a sneaking suspicion when these March anomalies started appearing that it was a strat induced signal as they are exhibiting the same behaviour as they were during Jan/Feb 2013. Out of interest, here's the pressure mean Good scope for at least an Icelandic ridge there

Yes...it has been trailed on the CFS for yonks... A Greenland ridge stands a better than average chance as we head towards latter Feb. We'll see if the 0z GEFS continue where the 18z suite left off at the tail end of the run. Here's the latest offering for March...again excellent consistency with its SSW induced outlook, just as it was March 2013...

Aye, by day 8 &9 we have a sinking high and a westerly flow for the UK Let's see if later in FI we see the trend of the 18z GEFS manifest with N blocking re-establishing

As to be expected the 'envelope' of solutions and possibilities was larger and we saw some signs that we had the potential for a fairly deep seated easterly and attendant cold pooling. However, one of the less palatable options (though still cold) looks like it may come to pass this time round. Surely we're due a bit of luck and the capturing of the best case scenario for the first time in yonks!

This a very interesting and striking anomaly chart for day 16 (pressure ensemble mean) Suggests that we're eventually going to have a good chance of getting the HP N Atlantic/ Greenland based in the longer term. All the time we're still seeing CFS anomalies like this being thrown out I remain unchanged from last night, we have a potentially very interesting 6 weeks or so coming up.

The issue is, Chiono, things more often go wrong than they go right in the UK so I prefer to be realistic with potential pitfalls. People can say it's negativity but the fact that I've seen a dozen ramping episodes on this forum and yet with no substantial cold spells actually materialising over the past couple of years, it speaks for itself. I'd be the first one to ramp away if I saw something truly great in the modelling but from the promise and optimism of just 48 hours ago (where we had the potential for a very notable E'ly spell) we have now been left with a couple of days of E/SE'ly winds and a modest cold pool to play with under fairly high pressure. Eastern and southeastern areas may well see snow, but what I'm seeing at the moment for everyone else is grey, stratiform sky with a cold wind. For what it's worth I don't foresee this spell being the last period of interest this month (nor even into March) and I'm not buying a long term descent into the MLB that we have seen for much of the winter thus far. So, longer term I quite agree with you.

Exactly. You hand a CV or an application form in to a company riddled with grammatical mistakes, the company won't even look at it as it'll go straight in the bin. This is because bad grammar shows a lack of attention to detail and laziness. Some people tend to get very touchy about it though. Getting their, there and they're mixed up for example is nothing to do with dyslexia.

That mean chart does not discount the southerly shown by the op at the same timeframe though- far from it. On a positive note, the 850s are better than the op... Still it's all very knife edge and we remain right on the periphery

I disagree mate. It matters not one jot if that high sets up too far east IF you get the correct profile to the west of the HP cell. To embellish this point, if you get a perfect split flow in jet energy, you will see low pressure disrupt favourably along the southern arm, whilst the northern arm recurves at the other terminus of the HP cell (also known as a retrograde jet or 'reverse zonal'). Both of these arms of the jet in tandem work to pull the HP back west. If the profile to the west of the HP is not correct/favourable you get changes in the distribution of jet energy which then has a knock on effect to the shape and rigour of the HP. What started off as a well rounded block becomes uneven and unbalanced, often aligning poorly for us and thwarting CAA into the UK. You have more wriggle room further E in Europe but in our location we often lie on the periphery as it is. It's why a spectacular E'ly is so rare to get in the UK...because they require the perfect split in jet energy. Otherwise you end up with these one or two day wonders that we see slightly more frequently.

Some of the posters in there leave a lot to be desired. I cannot say what I'd really like to say as it'd get me banned but if the perpetual hopecasting wasn't bad enough, the terrible grammar (as you point out) is enough to send the more seasoned over the edge!

That just summarises the UK's fortunes to a tee. The only place in the world where a warm plume gets that far N.

The influence of the Azores HP and its effects of encouraging just too much jet N is a trend that's been there for 36 hours or so. You can look back in the thread because it was pointed out a fair few pages back. The fact that this pivotal part of the evolution happens at just 3 days out should set at least some alarm bells ringing. Even in the worst case scenario, it doesn't mean we're precluded another push from the E/NE later on as I don't think this will be the only spell of interest in the coming weeks (and with that the 9 &10 day ECM look questionable to me in terms of going forward).