Cheshire Freeze

Majority of PV banished over to Scandinavian side....it's in situations like this where the UK an go COLD...shame it's 10 days+! Good continuity vs ensembles in the extended range I guess..

Barely registers as a toppler TBH (though may improve further into deep FI). However if it was offered to me as shown- straight NW'ly, -6 uppers etc I'd stick and pray I saw a few flakes fall out of it...you know it has been bad when this is the case!

Yes and even by 180 hrs you can see from the GEFS ensemble mean that heights begin to form over the top of the troughing into Scandi

GEFS sharpen up the Pacific ridge as per UKMO and vs the operational

It's the UKMO versus ECM. GFS, GEFS, EPS, CFS and other long range forecasting tools. If it is correct then crown it champ there and then. IF (a big if) the ECM throws out an E'ly towards the end of the run then I'm happy enough that it is a scenario which is relatively likely going forward.

GFS FI CFS for Jan The continuity there is pretty striking To get 2 different models throwing out the EXACT same scenario at that range is noteworthy

The UKMO isn't even that bad TBH Steve. Plenty of opportunity down the line I think. Only goes to day 6 and as I say, it looks promising Pacific side regardless of the Atlantic sector at that time. Plenty of snow for your back yard further into FI

It was obvious the GFS was going to go on to be a stunner. Forget the near term as I think it might be a bust...I'm intrigued by the continued E'ly signal day 10 and on

Yes, and look Pacific side- highly amplified which should promote further waves of amplification further down the line (it's actually aligned to place a better hit on the vortex than the GFS)...even if it is in 2 weeks time when we reap any benefits!

Well I did say touch and go... At least the door isn't locked! Meanwhile...the GFS shows a less stressful route

It's not great at day 6, but could be a lot worse. Surface heights evident over Scandi...touch and go as to whether we can get something from there further down the line... You have to say, whilst the other models are flipping from scenario to the next, the UKMO has remained as steady as a rock....worrying.

I wouldn't want to second guess where the GFS is headed days 5/6, that's for sure The Atlantic sector is a bit of an enigma there if truth be told. I would say, however, the UKMO is going to be pretty blocked at 144. A fair bit of amplification on offer there

The trouble is Nick, I feel people are using that 168 hrs UKMO chart all wrong in this situation. It shows us one small snapshot of the N Atlantic and that's about it. We have no real idea what the bigger picture looks like over the Arctic, most of the USA and Scandi eastwards. We just can't glean anything from it other than that the Atlantic sector looks flat... TBH the UKMO could easily play nice and allow the 168 hrs chart to be displayed for general public consumption on a site like Meteociel, in their format. They could also allow us the 850s too!

The 18z mean at 200+ is more amplified than the 12z suite. Could be some very good perts going forward...

Indeed Fred. Seemingly no matter what happens early-mid term, the longer term headline is height rises to our NE. Even more pertinent is the retrogressive signal of this HP right at the end of the run- something which GP has outlined...Scandi heights to Greenland heights in the extended. Something to keep our beady eyes on anyway.

Deep FI but good consistency with CFS anomalies I posted earlier Cold enough.

Well, if we still somehow get an E'ly from here I really will start to think that is the ultimate destination

So after all that, we may end up with a UK high anyway This island is cursed I tell thee

It's heartening to see the CFS churn out this sort of scenario run after run

Day 7 GFS 6z

A N'ly was manifesting by day 7 on the 6z...OK a NW'ly but you know full well what I mean. It wasn't at 2 weeks+ is my point and had been consistent for many runs.

That's 15 days into the future! The difference is, the 6z had a second, more sustained N'ly, at around 168 hrs on the 6z. If something at day 7 can go up in smoke then forgive me for not being overly optimistic at something showing at day 15.

Vortex in disarray and the UK still manages to find itself in a S'ly at 300 hours Completely academic at that range and not to be taken seriously but if that doesn't sum up the UK and its luck for wintry prospects then I don't know what does

This FI is either going to be a classic or a massive disappointment given what we see at 192..

Should get the E'ly here too on the 12z GFS Mucka...just a touch later than the UKMO would bring it To add to the confusion, the upstream pattern is actually more favourable than the 6z had it at the same time!