Cheshire Freeze
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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze
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Not only that, the entire ensemble suite! This is why I lend credence to what TEITS was saying the other day about following the ops in situations like this. Ensembles are next to useless and that's the 2nd or 3rd time we've seen this since November. If one of the big 3 doesn't agree at 144-192 range then have no faith in any output, even if the ensemble majority backs the op consensus!
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Ironic thing is, the UKMO could actually be better going forward than the GFS with the potential for an easterly going forward as I pointed out after the 0z UKMO run. Either way, we're going to be looking well into FI for deep cold/snow on this GFS run.
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At this point on the 6z we were in a NW'ly....on this run we're in a S'ly
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It means a longer route to deep cold. Two options if we want cold...it either needed to retrogress as per 6z or it needs to bugger off as quick as possible. We do not under any circumstances want Euro heights becoming the main player again with the jet gaining the upper hand across the top. Can kiss goodbye to 2 weeks of Jan at least if that is what eventually transpires.
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Yep a definite shift towards the UKMO of the past few runs. It has all gone a bit Pete Tong at 126 hours with that ridge (rather than retrogressing out west of us) slips back S through the UK
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You're right, this looks dicey Just watch the UKMO go towards the earlier GFS solution though...
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Well I'm off to bed. Will check the 6z GFS and 0z ECM when I get up. Would be nice to get a decent ECM to settle the nerves but yes, UKMO and GEM aren't great.
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Purely fantasy but vortex about to rip itself apart deep in FI
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Well there's one thing about the 0z GFS, we're almost certainly getting the Scandi high further into FI. Heights already building over the European trough at 198 hrs. Bitterly cold, but how many times have we been here with the GFS before?!
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Probably the GFS- It's always the GFS, seemingly! When UKMO is out on its own showing cold it seems to rarely pull it off. When it's the party pooper, historically it's correct.
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UKMO looks awful on the face of it at 144 hrs. However, funnily enough, I can see a convoluted way to get an easterly out of that. I'd rather go the GFS route though in all honesty. The less drama the better.
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Completely agree. Completely academic at that range but the ECM would have been a stellar run post 240 hrs.
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UKMO at day 6 doesn't follow the script this morning GFS at day 6 a lot better than the UKMO as it maintains that wedge of heights between the LPs that Steve was talking about earlier So...still no resolution to this one
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Very rarely happens though does it?! I'd love to know why the flatter outcomes shown are seemingly more likely to verify when there's a model stand off. There must be a reason.
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You are indeed correct. I noticed as they were updating that the ensemble mean is not as 'sharp' as the 12z suite offered up. I hope we don't see an ECM flip tomorrow morning! It is usually a bad omen when the 18z op or ensemble suite go the opposite way to what we'd like with a lot of teeth gnashing and toys out of the pram the following morning upon the ECM's efforts!
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Cold again...Certainly backs up what Fergie was saying the other day about the signal for a marked cold signature S UK into Jan. HP just to N and a cold easterly S of this. A point on the EPS discussion...haven't they been all over the place for the last 6 weeks or so? One moment looking promising in the extended range, the next flipping to something different?
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Last 3 CFS runs for Jan Next one should be out in a couple of hours or so but fairly good continuity now....I'd like to see the height anomalies become a tad more striking but even so, I don't think we can discount some weak heights somewhere to the N of us through the month. The question is whether they'll be able to deflect the jet far enough S in our locale for us to benefit from them.
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As long as we keep seeing bouts of amplification upstream (aided partially by huge Pacific ridge), we have a decent enough chance of getting enough ridging towards Greenland I have the distinct feeling it's a matter of when rather than if.
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It's quite clear RE the Metoffice...as Fergie has said, there are a lack of clear cut background signals this year...they're all fairly neutral. Hence they have been relying solely on model output- model output which has either been swinging around or just plain wrong at times. I think that is why they appear to be changing direction a little more than they normally do.
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Not as striking an anomaly as the previous run but it maintains the theme I take more notice when the CFS produces successive runs of the same general idea.
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Looks like those crazy CFS runs you see at 700 hours + A real pipe freezer to end the GFS run this afternoon.
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If it's a snowy set up you want to establish, it doesn't get much better than this
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An improvement in the longer term though... Something is stirring... Cross polar ridging is a repeating theme...even if it is seemingly pushed back. Usually it means that there is a signal being picked up.
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It's an evolving situation IMO. Heights could easily be sheared in towards Scandi from the collapsing ridge- something which won't be picked up properly for a couple of days yet. As the ridge collapses, watch the angle of advection on the western limb of the HP cell- the further towards N this points, the better as the HP will maintain latitude easier.
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Great! Get your snow boots out then!
