Steve C

Cheers Dave, I'll look our for it.

Well he talks about expected colder than average between Christmas and New Year, but I think his main focus is on possible severe weather in terms of deep lows and strong winds. https://twitter.com/fergieweather

Thanks for the information. I do like to try and spot these.

I'm (slightly) uncomfortable with the way the ECM model is evolving for the relevant period. I don't like seeing low pressure moving from Iceland towards Denmark, as if a low pressure deepens in the wrong place, then this could spell trouble. The latest run has a filling feature by the time it reaches the North Sea, so on the face of it, not a problem, but I'll be happier when it shows this in the more reliable time-frame. Not really relevant for this thread, but I downloaded the (underlying naturally occurring Sun / Moon - not storm influenced) tide heights for my nearest location for late Jan / early Feb 1953. As is known generally, there was a major storm surge overnight on 31st January. It is also known that this corresponded with a spring tide. What I didn't realise until today, but did, as soon as I saw the actual figures, was that this was a 'low spring' tide, rather than a 'high spring' tide. I think the sea level has risen naturally by about 10cms since 1953, but still, the figures here are very low for a spring tide in my locality - I quite avidly watch the figures. To prove the point, I downloaded the figures for a couple of weeks later and the difference with this 'high spring' is pronounced. I'd guess that a third of the underlying tides in Winter are at least as high as the 1953 problem tide. I found that somewhat sobering... 1953.pdfFeb53.pdf I'll also attach tide heights for my locality for the next week and the 'high spring' tide weeks in January and February 2015 for comparison. Pre Xmas.pdfJan15.pdfFeb15.pdf

Yes it does, as per this Met Office link. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/storm-surge As Backtrack has pointed out though, there doesn't seem to be an issue currently for next week.

I'd be more concerned about the depth and track of the low with regards to spring tides tbh. The high spring tides (rather than low springs, two weeks later) follow the New Moon currently and peak on Christmas Eve. Mind you, the spring tides centred on 23rd January and 21st/22nd February are even higher... We also have the highest naturally occurring tide in 25 years on 30th September next year, but hopefully the chances of coinciding with a major storm are much reduced at that time.

Of course there isn't. You feel like the majority of the adult population in reality. I like snow and love to get out in it - especially if it's dry powdery stuff - but don't dislike people for having their own preferences. This is one of the most annoying things about this site in the Winter imho (as well as cry babies and toy chuckers) - the amount of snide comments I've seen over the years towards people who like mild winters.

Who really cares? You haven't long to wait whatever.

I've not read the thread, apart from the opening poster's comment. Bizarre tbh. If you're an adult and are able to drive, a 'snow fix' is very easy. If you're a child or incapacitated (physically or financially) then I'd cut you some slack. The OP didn't say observing snow from his/her house though.

Just looked at the inshore waters forecast and (as at my posting time) the Met Office have forgotten to post any of Friday's conditions, but have posted the outlook for the following 24 hours. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast/#?tab=map He he! They've now corrected.

Yes and they've increased it from what they were forecasting only late this afternoon. Sea areas Lundy and Fastnet have had similar upgrades too (albeit not to Force 11) We can only wait and see. Only very exposed coastal locations near the area should see those sort of winds too. A buffeting and noisy sort of end of night / when we wake, for sure.

Interesting gale warning, issued for sea area Dover, half an hour ago... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast/#?tab=map

Did you not read my post properly? I'm failing to understand the whole of your response tbh.

Except that it gave 120 odd mph gusts in Denmark and hurricane force gusts over the east (and non coastal parts) of East Anglia... Would you rather the Met Office had said zilch then?

Phenomenal sea states being forecast for all NW sea areas of the UK for tomorrow now. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast/#?tab=map

There is nothing ahead of phenomenal. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/marine/glossary

On its approach to the Philippines (and north of the area devastated by Haiyan) it now has sustained winds of 205kph (just shy of 130mph) http://weather.com.ph/announcements/typhoon-hagupit-ruby-update-number-013 I guess this might be equivalent to a category 4 storm, as the 205kph is based on 10 minute average windspeeds, rather than the 1 minute that categorises Atlantic hurricanes. This last bit makes me wonder how minimal typhoons are categorised. Do they have 10 minute speeds of slightly under force 12? Still a dangerous beast, but thankfully not a Haiyan.

You've obviously not drunk much beer then...

Hopefully on a slowly weakening trend now as it should interact with relatively cool, dry air. http://weather.com.ph/announcements/super-typhoon-hagupit-ruby-update-number-007

It's just sickening. It just makes me appreciate how lucky we are in these islands. As much as I feel in awe of the spectacle of something so omnipotent, I'd happily divert it / hugely downgrade it before it hit land, if it was in my power.

I should have added that the highest tides in this cycle are on Sunday and Monday. They then lessen gradually over the next week or so. Unfortunately my post was somewhat IMBY, in that it looks like any storm tide issues wouldn't be before Thursday, in the North Sea, looking at the current charts. Big waves would likely impact western areas a day earlier.

Yes, somewhat high, but not as bad as if the potential storm was 2 or 3 days earlier. Hopefully a storm surge won't be a huge issue (fingers crossed) There are also pretty high spring tides (bigger than next week) due for a couple of days either side of Christmas Eve. Hopefully the weather will become calmer and cold by then.

Hmmm, just looking at the latest fax chart for tomorrow midday and the NMM chart for 4 o'clock tomorrow afternoon, I have this sinking feeling that this murk will clear tomorrow imby, just as it gets dark...

3.5C here, with cold drizzle. Dark and dank - nearly every car had its full headlights on at 1:30 A filthy day and nothing to get remotely excited about - the car (with new battery) keeps indicating an ice risk - no chance of that here at the moment.

It's a bloody awful day here. Chilly, dank and drizzly. I've not seen the Sun since Sunday morning, the car didn't start this morning and I'm frankly sick and tired of it. Come on Atlantic front and clear this dire rubbish!