Steve C

I think temperatures will fall soon...

Agree with this. I've no big expectations from the next 24 hours and I'm looking at next week more, with the reload of Arctic air over the weekend. It doesn't mean I don't think some of us will be pleasantly surprised tonight / tomorrow though. I just think I'll (IMBY) not see anything memorable and anything will have melted by tomorrow afternoon, whatever.

Close lightning thunder and hail at Oulton Broad ( near Lowestoft ) Squall passing through.

Lightning at Oulton Broad just now.

The lack of sunshine definitely affects my mood, so I really dislike the North Sea muck type of weather. I actually wonder what I'd have thought of Feb 1947, which was notably sunless in our area. I guess the brightness of the snow would have more than made up for the grey skies though.

Do you have no preferred weather type then, with this statement? For the record, my worst weather type is North Sea haar, but I'd definitely consider myself an enthusiast.

A good one! Not that I was fooled mind you.

Agree. Most recent forecast on News24 looked similar and agrees with TEITS NAE analysis. Poor for most of this region. A crisp sunny day here in NE Suffolk. Nice. I'm already looking for the next cold spell tbh. Hopefully with more long lasting snow potential.

Polar Maritime air isn't great for snow in our area. Nice clear / clean skies though.

I can't work out whether a couple of posts here are being sarcastic. A touch of light rain last night meant quite treacherous surfaces earlier. Now chilly, with sunny intervals. Typical January fare really.

I saw the presenter make that comment. One that could leave egg on face, I thought, especially if a pronounced squall develops. I'm unsure of her credentials however. Is she just a presenter, or does she have more knowledge?

I must admit that I find the matrix there a bit strange. It's still biased towards low probability / high impact. Surely the probability must be fairly high now? (notwithstanding impact effects)

Yes, very rarely though. I don't think this one will live long in the memory, at least in the South, although the wind will wake a few up here tonight. I'd think there'd be more hassle for those in the North, close to / south of where the low pressure tracks tomorrow.

Obviously the fax charts are the best guidance now, with their human input, but until models downgrade, they need to have a wary eye cast over them IMO.

Awaiting the updates to weather warnings for the period. About Midday? Hopefully more clues then. Carol has since mentioned coastal gales with gusts to 70mph. On the face of it, this would suggest nothing more than the type of storm we see most winters and nowhere near the scale of that which affected Scotland last week. However, some model runs suggest a fair bit more than Carol is forecasting.

Carol Kirkwood just mentioned 'coastal gales' for the Wednesday storm and tbh the BBC graphics didn't look too scary, albeit the storm was still in the western approaches at run's end. It's intriguing how Carol's description was so much at odds with what some model runs are showing, less than 72 hours out. It can downgrade away as far as I'm concerned though. I don't want to see a big storm this year for hassles it'd likely cause me this particular year.

Thanks for posting. On the face of it, it looks like a serious blow - 20 to 22 metres per second equates to force 8 or 9 (multiply the m/s figure by 2.2 to get the rough miles per hour equivalent) One thing that puzzles me though is the lack of differential between inland and coastal / sea areas, especially with that 100m figure quoted. If it relates to wind at 100m above ground then it'd obviously be less serious than the 10m above ground level, which IIRC is where official wind measurements are taken.Nervy times ahead for people who don't like windstorms, whatever.

I seriously wouldn't worry about specifics this far out. I doubt any major windstorm has been predicted with confidence outside of a 5 day period, in our part of the World. You're fretting somewhat unnecessarily imho. My advice would be to wait for at least 48 and preferably 72 hours without stressing about specific charts. You have in your mind that we might be affected by a windstorm and there is indeed a chance it will happen but you have as much awareness as you need at this point. Wait until the Weekend and the chances are that the storm potential will downgrade - almost certainly the current synoptic charts won't end up like the reality... And I hope your wedding goes very well.

Really good to see you posting again JennyJane. You've been missed and we were concerned.

Got to say Matt, you are one of the most reasonable and balanced posters here / and in the Model Thread. You know your stuff and deserved your Model Host promotion. Do you find it utterly frustrating posting your thoughts there though, at this time of year? Something is wrong (and I say it sincerely and hope things can be turned around) with Netweather and I feel sorry for talented posters like yourself. The site owners must be aware of my unease about this site - they must be having the same thoughts.

The UKMO model is troubling too. A definite 'weather bomb' showing. From a large high pressure on 26th to an explosive low a day later. The UKMO solution might not be so bad for North Sea coasts as the GFS and Parallel, as it delays the onset, when tides are decreasing, but it might be worse for land areas.

I think the ECM solution means no flooding and the GFS a flooding issue. It'd be nice to see cross model consensus soon (and towards the ECM solution) People might need to make plans, especially with lots travelling away for Christmas. Although the peak of the spring tides will have passed by then, there will still be a reasonably high tide by next Saturday (a bit lower on Sunday 28th)

It's very easy to say that something won't happen (and most times at this juncture, it won't) but it'll inevitably happen at some point, whether it's forecast from this far out or sooner.

I think nothing has really changed and people are again making the mistake of micro-analysing each run. I think the potential for very dramatic weather is there for next weekend. Okay nothing may happen, but remember what learned posters have said here; don't get too excited or downhearted until the new working week.

Pretty well everyone IMHO. The gales would be awful on North Sea coasts too.