joo

I have a (not calibrated) thermometer with the end bit sticking out the window and the temperature shown has been varying between 3.3 and 3.1, up and down since I got to work. Obviously it's not very accurate (as all the heat from in the office gets out the window) but it's not showing any dropping. Still low cloud and rain here in Nantgarw. And lots of people saying "oh it's too wet for any snow / snow to stick". So I referred to the last time someone said that and then had to walk home, lol.

Can you give us a quick Andy forecast for today, please. Times, duration and depths.

Right, I am in position for some nowcasting. But nothing to report yet, just drizzle and low clouds. No white on top of the mountain (yet).

It's still trying to sleet in Nantgarw. The snow line hasn't moved.

I'm just 4 miles from you Andy and all I can see is a little bit on top of the mountain - it's not snowing at 50m asl, I estimate the snow line to be about 250m I've got my wellies in the car (and sent hubby to work with his boots) Is this really going to be a "bad travel" day? Am I going to get any work done, or am I going to be looking out the window all day?

Rain, trying to sleet here at the moment. The clouds are very low, on top of the mountain

I like my snow to be heavy enough in the garden to make a snowman, yet keeps off the roads so they are drivable. Actually I just like seeing snow falling. It doesn't need to stick, just look nice coming down.

What kind of snow are we expecting (obviously only the snow gods know really)? Heavy so everyone panics at lunchtime and rush home, but it clears before home time? Park your car at the bottom of the hill as you'll never get it up there? Constant but not sticking? Snowmaggedon?

Met Office have given an advisory for snow for Wales tomorrow.

Well I've just watched both sets of local weather and the ITV guy said rain for Thursday, while Derek said snowy showers. All of his locations on his map started with the letter Y tonight.

I'm on Treforest Industrial Estate, looking at Mynydd Meio which has a peak of 320m near the communications masts. It's dry here now.

Drizzle here in Nantgarw. I shall be watching the top of the mountain for it to turn white. Lovely low hill-hugging clouds earlier. I could see the top of the hill above a long line of clouds.

some random quotes since 8pm: "but the raw output does rather suggest a real threat of milder SW coming up" "And yes judging by thease outputs this could go on for a fair while i think its set in stone now i see no cold return to southern half of england past mid week" "It looks a very dry run to me, in fact the trend for the last few runs is drier" "Its very much a case of stuck in no-mans land, neither cold nor mild, been like that for most of Feb really. The charts suggest much of the same for the next week. Very boring " " I think March is fast approaching and this month has been a lovely end to a lovely winter. I dare say we get brief cold spells between now and March, but nothing drastic and fleeting in my opinion." "Again there is no real cold in the models, very disappointing again. Another week will pass waiting for a trend to cold to appear in the Models, all the while we are heading towards march." And some positives: "18z throws up numerous potential snow events for Ireland and some for England too" "18z shows a risk for a brief snow risk on Tuesday night for the Home Counties north and west of London, its only a risk but something that could well need watching. Monday night still looks wrong side of marginal on the 18z though it has to be said. " And of course there's the posts that I can't tell whether they are positive or negative as I don't understand them

haha, that's OK Andy. It's not you it's all those other people on the MOD thread

I must admit I'm getting very confused now. The peeps on the MOD thread are all resigned that winter is over. The forecast pages are saying it won't be cold, yet you find these lovely maps. I have been enjoying this nice dry weather recently as I've managed to be out most nights training for holidays.

Thank you for the replies. I kind of thought it was a lot easier as there may not be as many factors (normally) to take in to account

How am I looking for Sunday morning for a nice 10km walk round the hills of Caerphilly? Should I do it on Saturday instead?

I'm with you Snow Angel. Or is there a thread I've been missing "models for the next few days that are not in FI" ? It's often fun reading the MOD thread even though I have no idea how to read charts yet. But it's all about long range, not short range. Or is there no fun in interpreting the short range charts ?

Do the same rules apply to snow forecasts in the Alps as snow forecasts in Britain? Ie forecasting anything more than an hour in advance is just guess work. Or are things more forecastable there and there's better confidence in forecasts?

Oh dear. Did Andymusic get it wrong? It's grey with snow flurries here now. But that's the type of wrong we want Andy to be.

There are a few little flakes in the air here too.

I thought the regional threads were for "nowcasting" as well as model discussions. I am really interested in every one's take on what's happening and may or may not happen, but I have no idea on how to read the various models and ensembles and doobry whatsits. So all I can contribute is my personal nowcasting. Things get exciting when I get the nowcast from local areas about first flakes falling, it makes me go check out my lamp post. I do go in the model discussion thread but it's all FI and if there's one thing I've learnt in my short time here is that the future is not written yet and there are zillions of potential futures.

Ever such light flurries here. But they are flurries of snow and Andymusic promised us snow for today, so I'm a believer.

Much as I stare out the window and belive I'm seeing things, there's nothing here in Nantgarw, although I've had tales of "it's snowing in Gurnos" and the like.

Thanks for the links. I'll hang around there in a few weeks.