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Everything posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is a good good ggggggggooooooooooooooooooood upgrade for chances of significant cold from the GFS. It's big shame it's outside the reliable time frame just yet though, but hey we have to start somewhere. -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Below is from Matt Hugo on Twitter:- An interesting 30hPa chart from the 06Z GFS...It's (strat vortex) days are number if that chart is anything to go by. -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Doesn't them 2 charts equate to 2 mild days out of the next 10? I thought that from looking at all the latest model runs from the past few days is that generally temps were going to be cool to cold countrywide with the VERY ODD mild day here and there as LP's pass through. I don't know if you meant in on purpose but the way you posted would suggest it is going to be nothing but mild from now on?, which could not be any further from the truth if you tried. -
Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Latest from twitter by Matt Hugo Some interesting signs from the latest EC32 one obvious sign is a complete lack of a polar vortex/low over the pole throughout December. Sounds like very good news to me and is in line with what other people / models have been saying / showing in regards to a weak / non existent PV. -
Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Taken from Matt Hugo on twitter 26 out of the 51 EC ENS members from the 00Z run show potential blocking to the NW of the UK and a poss N'ly by approx 6th of Dec... -
Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A very small window for some snow over Scotland next week according to the latest all singing all dancing GFS 00Z run. It looks highly unlikely that snow will be seen anywhere else. But it will only be early November after all. The latest ECM show's HP trying to move in again right at the end of the run, but according to the latest NOAA & ECM / GFS 500MB mean there is next to no chance of that happening with a continuation of LP driven and unsettled weather. -
Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Crikey the GFS has temps struggling to get above freezing in some places on Tuesday. I will believe that when I see it though. -
Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Feeling very chilly at times throughout next week if the GFS comes off. Some 4c below average in places. -
Early winter hopes and chat
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Not necessarily -
Early winter hopes and chat
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
And 9 times out of 10 our winters do normally turn out mild. -
Early winter hopes and chat
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Oct EC Seasonal update shows a weak signal for higher than avg pressure over Greenland, and lower than avg pressure over the UK. Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 Oct EC Seasonal still indicates temps will be slightly above average between Dec and Jan and with slightly above avg precip totals too. Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 EUROSIP seasonal which combines UKMO, ECM, Meteo-France and NCEP also signals a generally unsettled winter, temps/precip slightly above avg -
Some uncertainty to what happens with the weather late next week (particularly in the S/SE). It looks like it could settle down for a bit, but it is kind of looking likely that any drier / brighter spell will be very short lived before the next LP comes in. The latest 500mb mean charts for 7-10 days ahead don't really point to a sustained drier spell coming up again anytime soon. To add to the above the latest METO update doesn't mention any prolonged dry and settled spells until after at least mid month.
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Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14
No Balls Like Snow Balls replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Between 1.5" & 2" of rain could fall in parts of the North between Friday lunchtime and Midnight Sun according to both the UKMO & GFS.