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Posts posted by weirpig
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1 minute ago, Doctor96 said:
3-4 days of cold and pressure high , a little lights snow for a few , then mild for another week or two .
As some on here are about to find out an easterly taking air from south Europe is no good at all . What are the experts seeing that I am not , this looks great for three days then all the potential is blown away . This all predicted clearly 48 hrs ago by gifs , it should not come as a surprise to many today .
What are you basing 2 weeks of mild weather from? of course you may be right but please tell me how you came to that conclusion.
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3 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:
Been watching these charts for 38 yrs and unless some of you are really professionals , then I remain sceptical that we are seeing only three days of cold max 2 c and then just cool. But some on here seem pretty confident , so let see what happens .
If we truly see the charts change and show deep cold for two weeks , then I will accept there are some very bright people on here.
But at least we have something generally more exciting than the last few winters to speculate on.
Just in my long experience as an amateur we need the High not to sink from today's position .
I can't see your location. But right up till 240 which is way fi middle England doesn't get above 2c which is a decent cold spell I could be wrong but I sense a decent cold spell developing
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Just now, Man With Beard said:
Thank goodness for that. Nailed on cold spell for me the monthlys have been awful this year. With all the background signals I can't see that happening . However as always time will tell
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6 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:
No he has a got a point,this cold will lead to nothing special.its looking like a cold snap rather then spell,people saying next week will be cold with higher 850's but it wont be that cold,probably 5/6c nothing special is it! It seems people are to bias on here when there's signs of cold coming,always trying to ramp it up.its almost like we lie to ourselfs in suggesting that it will be a lot colder then what is showing.
All academic but temps are showing around 2c for quite a large swathe of the uk under highish uppers. So although not exceptional still cold. Add on the windchill . Brass monkeys
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Well very good 18z. Bar a few days of above 0 uppers which will still feel cold the whole run was cold and blocked time to dig the winter woolies out . Also of note is the windchill hopefully might even get a few more upgrades regarding snow potential
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4 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:
well i must admit after reading the views of people here this morning and getting a little excited, i am now feeling slightly deflated, lol, just trying to get a take on what areas of the uk are going to experience the upcomming chilly/cold spell, from an imby its no snow, no frost and nothing really cold
Sorry your in a prime position as it currently stands a stiff easterly showers off the North Sea. Happy days
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13 minutes ago, 40*C said:
Looks like its only for Scotland and the far North. Theres nothing in there for Midlands or SE
All conjecture but the gfs showed quite abit of snow across a swath of the country from wales across the north and the midlands
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13 minutes ago, The Weather Dragon said:
regarding model confidence this winter i tend to go in this order
UKMET, GFS/GEM, ECM
I agree with that comment Dragon, For me the ECM has often been full of promise this winter and has yet hasnt really verified UKMO has been very good this winter. For me at the moment a dry easterly is probably favourite but has ever things could well change for the better
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1 minute ago, beefy201 said:
why 2019? confused.com
Solar min i would have thought
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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Could be a contender for wettest February on record, I expect flood warnings issued during early Feb
Youve been expecting flood warnings since November. Its been a very strange winter this year plenty of promise but nothing really as been delivered,
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1 minute ago, Daryl Dixon said:
Snow?
MMm who knows at this juncture Spain does however look like getting alot of rainfall. Southerly jet with lows undercutting the UK? we can but hope.
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1c bitter cold
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2 hours ago, Gord said:
Been down to walk the dog at Himley Plantation near Wombourne this morning. Surprised me how little snow there was on the ground compared to up here in Gornal. All melting now of course, shows how a NWerly an never really bring the real cold we yearn to see. We can squeeze a lot of snow from a NW set up, we just can't keep the snow.
All down to altitude gord Wombourne is quite low down
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Well quite a bit of a surprise this morning more fell then i expected the traffic in sedgley this morning was gridlocked it finally seems like winter
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4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:
Nice find...I went into menu, top left and turned on terrain, highlights the pep better
Installed as well some beefy showers heading this way seem to becoming more organised
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Some of these showers seem to be merging could be a nice falling somewhere
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Showers really starting to pep up in the Irish Sea
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4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:
BBC weather forecast is up for that, showing snow showers into the Midlands this evening right up to midnight.
But showing that band for tomorrow morning is more easterly now!!!
Great I suppose the issue is how potent are they
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1 minute ago, Aaki Khan said:
Isnt that between 9pm to midnight?
That's a snap shot of midnight ish the showers will prob last to 3 ish before the winds change however your right the streamer could prob set up before that
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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by weirpig
A quick look at the ensembles and in the near term around half on them have quite a bit of snow covering large parts of England i still think most will see a shower or two. For whats its worth and probably not a great deal but here is the mean.