weirpig
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Posts posted by weirpig
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9 minutes ago, The Wolf said:
I will be amazed if you don't get any snow! You are in a decent spot.
Yes a prime spot I think way to warm here for any of the white stuff. 3.5c and Dp of 1.7
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Well the gfs has us under the most precipitation going into the early hours might get something a little wintry with the heavier bursts.
If only it had been colder
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the met office app is funny its got me here in Dudley under the snow symbol for 12 hours
correction 11
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14 minutes ago, The Wolf said:
Great to see a fellow Wolves fan on here! Things can only get better!
Bloody cold here. Anyone know what the latest models are saying regarding snow potential in early hours and tomorrow morning. BBC forecasts give the impression of them not really knowing for certain what will happen!
Well they cant get much worse! i really have no idea i think we may see some falling snow with a bit of altitude. i dont think however we will need the use of a snow plough to get to work. Your right it is cold temp maxed out at 3.7c now falling down to 3.3c
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9 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:
Just wondering what DP is needed for snow
0c i believe currently 2.0c here at the moment. also you have to take into consideration wet bulb humidity etc.
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Currently 3.4c here and feels cold will we get a bit of the white stuff? maybe
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10 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:
Just updated still bit uncertain but seems to have spread warning area out more
Yep more south and west brings West midlands into the snow area.
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29 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Same here.
I recorded a minimum of -3.5C, despite cloud cover until 11:00 last night.
Pretty well spot on the forecast. Currently at 1.0C, with extensive strata.
I notice that a small low is expected to form on the occluded front later (over the southern Irish Sea) by the BBC, and then move east into the North Sea early tomorrow.
Could it be a trigger for us a bit further south, via evap cooling?
We can always hope!
MIA..
Possibly warnings been updates on met office much more into the midlands now and as west as Telford. A bit of height around here and might see a bit of snow
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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
being realistic, but probably my christmas pudding biased thoughts, and my believing of snow only on hills, but I think only snow in this region will be on Peaks, Flash, and 200m+, slushy mess, 300m+ proper snow
Flash 425m, powdery snow 20cms
See the swear filters still working
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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Don't fall into the trap of seeing pink colours and thinking 'oh, snow'. We see this time and again from the EURO4. If we look at the corresponding precipitation for 6AM there is barely any over most of central and west Mids at that time
Places like the Lincs Wolds and southern and eastern peaks may do OK for a few cm though.
Oh I know crew be nice to see a few flakes
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2 minutes ago, andymusic said:
Euro 4 is showing potential falls for quite a bit of the east midlands around 6am - peak cold hour - the beeb are going for that too
It is quite a upgrade for the midlands more westerly as well
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Well well euro4 brings snow right through the heart of the region might see a few flakes peaks in a good position
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48 minutes ago, Gord said:
Oh no..and so it begins!
I must not get involved.
Must learn the lessons of the past 3 years.
I must not look...
...well, one little look...
...it's only to see what the weather will be doing right?
Oh look!
A snow symbol!
Too late...here we go then...buckle up.
Yes Gord i didnt expect anything then i saw the mythical snow symbol. we might see some falling tomorrow
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58 minutes ago, fizz511 said:
Ooh, my first sleet symbol for the season from the MetO for tomorrow night.
Well, it's a start!
beat you i have one snow symbol
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43 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
There are already early weather warnings in force for higher parts of central and northern uk for snow and you can see why that's the case going by these Gfs 6z charts which show quite a few hours worth of snow with elevation and don't be surprised if some descends to lower levels..the interior of scotland is in line for a spell of heavy snow higher up and looking at the midweek temps shows an early taste of winter, the first salvo of hopefully many cold and wintry spells during the next 4 months or so!
I know this is only a northern event but it's very worthy of discussion.
Yes Karl this little event seems to have gone under the radar somewhat. Ive just had a browse through the recent Euro4 run and it brings the snow risk as far south as the Midlands( the East) so some may have a surprise or two Edit i also have my first snow symbol of the season
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
STONKING NH PATTERN ALERT!
BIG DUMPINGS MOVING EVER NEARER.
Lol it certainly is heading in the right direction a pattern might be emerging for the middle of the month meanwhile a nice tweet from Judah (apologises if as been posted before)
#polarvortex evolution will be important for early winter weather. GFS forecast potentially wicked cold for Europe but expect hi volatility!
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1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:
As Crewecold says it is both disappointing and concerning that the CFS is suggesting a +NAO developing, especially after so much early potential promise for this coming Winter. Even if such did develop though it doesn't necessarily mean we'll be stuck in a rut and things could change down the line, meaning that perhaps not all of Winter would be a dud. However at the same time doesn't this model have quite a mixed success rate, with it been very close to the mark sometimes and other times been way off? Also before we start getting too worried we better wait to see what the next Glosea and EC seasonal updates suggest. It is a bit deflating though of course, and we've just got to hope for now that it's wrong. Indeed after such promising signs this Autumn that we may finally be breaking free from the recent run of mild Winters it would feel pretty demoralising if we're about to enter yet another one. A lot of water to run under the bridge yet though, so we'll just have to sit tight and see.
May I suggest a hope and desperation thread. Calm down the models are struggling at 120 nevermind 3 months in advance chill and enjoy the fireworks.
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2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:
Yes, as Ian says, there's much uncertainty regards model output & future pattern!
Although, generally looking much better overall than the last few Autumn to Winter periods - which is encouraging!
Perhaps, a tad too early really.
Shame it's not January/February time when UK & Western Europe could really benefit from a relatively weak disorganised vortex, blocking & a more wintry NH set-up.
Slightly frustrating!
But, let's hope for the best.
No but the Cfs is mild winters over
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Another run another outcome on the gfs this run sees us initially in north westerly flow then into a easterly with increasingly colder uppers making there way over the uk . Model watching this season certainly isn't boring
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I always find perb 16 to be the most accurate.
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37 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:
November 4. November 4th is the day the "winters over" posts have started. Must be some sort of record, surely?
It's disappointing that the ECM has backtracked and in a massive way too. It's even more annoying that quite a few other model ops were showing support for it too but as we know, the ECM Op didn't have complete support from it's ENS Suite. It looks like a brief, transient spell of a more mobile, Westerly regime before blocking possibly re-develops out in the Atlantic.
It was never looking like snow away from the high ground anyway and not a single model shows the PV setting up over Greenland, it's just moving around. Last third of November is likely to be when things become more interesting, and we'll have a larger cold pool in place to take advantage of it.
Yep very early this year . However doesnt all the fun and games really start at around 120 plenty of times for the models to change. As many of us have seen over the years models really struggle when cold blocks are in situ. Im still not convinced this is the potential outcome. However i am the eternal optimist so we shall see
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Just now, mb018538 said:We've all seen this chart too many times in recent winters...
Yes we have. Good job it's Autumn
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Regardless of if this run verifies it's amazing to see the warmth being sent way up into Canada. Amazing
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correction 11
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Hopefully I think the heaviest precipitation is after10 fingers crossed