Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

weirpig

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,425

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

 Content Type 

Posts posted by weirpig

    Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

    Well i havent a clue myself!

    But (non-scientific) i am a believer in law of averages i.e. things evening out, over time.

    So here goes:

    The unusual October (poss 1st half November) with heights near to UK and warmth over Greenland will give way to Atlantic driven, wet and windy by Winter (esp Xmas and beyond).

    Possibly. But by your law of averages then this year should be cold and snowy going by the previous three 

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by weirpig

    18 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    I see a gradual weakening of heights / blocking on this evenings charts.

    High pressure over or in situ shouldn't be taken as the same as northern blocking. It may not be the most popular post this evening but what I see is yellows over Greenland being eroded and being replaced with blues and purples. I have an inkling that the vortex is going to ramp up in about ten days time. In the meantime worth remembering that it isn't cold here or in near future nor will it be cold within a 1000 mile radius of Britain and Ireland. 

    I'm not to sure what your seeing. Unable to post charts as on phone but the ecm does show heights eroding at the at the end of the run  but at the same timescale on the gfs it shows the same but then another ridge builds  then we finish with impressive heights towards Greenland  very early days and in my opinion the blocking will still be in place in 10 days time.  Differing opinions and all that  however the vortex will get its act together at some point  still it is very early so if the vortex does strengthen it's not a disaster by any means 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes the WAA is just continuing no matter what, every trough that gets sent SE, another bout of near vertical advection just builds GL high behind making sure troughs keep on getting sent into continental Europe, beautiful beautiful sight, just wish it were later and we could get some -10 to -15c isotherms sent south behind them.

    Yep if it were December and these these charts came to fruition then there would be serious cold uppers heading south  however that pattern if it were to happen would take days if not a few weeks to budge  all the while pumping colder air our way . Great charts 

    • Like 6

    Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, iapennell said:

    I get that : The same is true of the forecast pressure -charts on Meteociele, the French site and those produced by the Met Office. Even then, there are differences, because they will use different models and the Met. Office uses it's own very powerful super-computer capable of billions of calculations per second to run it's own predictions. Even then, the UK Met Office will only post predictions based on a mean ensemble of dozens of runs. Even then, as you will know, they still do not always get it right. 

    In making predictions beyond a month one can only go by the influence of large-scale parameters that are liable to persist over the course of months ahead, such as sea-surface temperatures over different regions, the Sunspot Cycle, ENSO and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. Even with their powerful super-computers organisations like the Met Office cannot reliably predict the weather more than a month out and so we have to fall back on how the large-scale parameters influence prevailing weather conditions based on sound meteorological principals. This is what I do when I make seasonal predictions, but I would not say this infallible, because even the large-scale parameters can change in unexpected ways over two or three months (even though they are the most reliable factors to base a seasonal forecast on). A recent example of this is the QBO, which was due to go into it's Easterly Phase this summer,  but something disturbed it earlier this year and so it remains (quite strongly) Westerly. 

    My understanding of the fundamentals that drive our weather, and the state of these fundamentals, does not at this moment in time convince me that recent blocking-highs over Scandinavia will feature heavily through this winter, though I am expecting some spells with cold dry and frosty weather due to high-pressure over Europe in January /February. 

    I am not oblivious to what the main meteorological outlook sites are showing and do factor them into the start of my forecast period as the Winter draws close. However, one cannot go by them more than a month out. Believe you me, I have got my hopes up in the past when Wetterzentrale has shown cold northerlies bringing hard frosts a fortnight out, only to get my hopes dashed as the time drew near for the hoped-for October cold spell to happen! 

    I hope this helps to clarify my stance on the major prediction sites. 

    Good points  and although i agree  ,  Its your wording of your previous comment that is rather confusing.   You stated that going into  November will be wet and windy  and told us to look at the various weather sites and models  Met office included.   At no point on any models(as far as they go)  does it show anything other then a blocked atlantic.  Of course this could  all change but going on the information available  Wet and windy seems the least likely option.  Thank you for your insight into your thinkings into what the next month will provide  .

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

    Just been watching a video that kind of explains that chart as the `` Bath tub splosh theory`` whereby cold air is transported from one side of the NH to the other via baroclinicity, without actually crossing straight over the pole   An American old timers theory apparently. 

    Joe bastardi explains it here http://www.weatherbell.com/ scroll halfway down the page and its the video on the left ... he said its not showing up on any model yet, but the anomaly chart he uses right near the end and looking through quite a number of pertubs on gfs go for something like it past the 250hr mark.

    Maybe just for fun ... maybe have a bit of credence .. lets see ! 

    What a spot  Bryan!  Very informative.

    Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Monday 7 November—Sunday 27 November
    Autumn is nearly out of sight!

    Pushing this far out in forecasting is always complex and a range of weather solutions will always emerge from the many global computer models that we look at.

    The pattern that is emerging looks to be slow moving and high pressure is likely to be close to the UK. This indicates that we are likely to see limited changes in weather on a daily basis and it looks like overall we could see more overnight frosts and fog becoming more extensive. Frontal systems are unlikely to affect the UK while showers are likely close to coastal areas where the sea can still provide enough heating to help produce showers.

    There's a lot that can happen until then and remember than we are transitioning from October to November the message is that we are not likely to see anything unusual for this time of year.

     

     

    Seems  dry and chilly  with little or no change  at the moment. 

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well  eventful run from the Gfs op   we got nice calm warm conditions  northerlies  north westerlies  north easterlies  and then a windstorm at the end of the run.  Blocking however still prevalent till the end of the run, With some quite cool uppers  again  through the early part of the month.    still have no idea   eyes to the ensembles.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Essex snowman said:

    After fergieweathers update seem a let down for us coldies well at least for next couple of weeks :-(

    It's late October  the theme is still blocking  we are miles away from last year    I thought for a moment that was going to be the earliest winters over post . Many twists and turns to come over the next possibly 5 months 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

    I've got to admit I'm a bit underwhelmed with the output this morning, ECM would have average to above average temperatures throughout. And while the Northern hemisphere is still looking blocked - which is far better than last year. It's still nowhere near as good as it was just 48-72 hours ago.

     

    On the left is the forecast for the 31st October 48 hours ago, the right is the current forecast

    gfsnh-0-192.png.7d920c84e523b9983d47bedd8d5bbd31.pngvvv.png

    Lets hope the 'good' charts staying in the 7-10 day range isn't a theme this year!

    You are right Barry  the charts you have posted  does show that over the last 48 hours  the  overall pattern isnt quite as good.  However the mean on the Gfs  isnt bad at all  i think most would snatch your hand off  for these charts compared to last year

    mean.png

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    Plenty of cold GEFS 6z perturbations, and there were others:shok::cold-emoji:

    0_264_850tmp.png

    8_288_850tmp.png

    12_288_850tmp.png

    13_312_850tmp.png

    15_288_850tmp.png

    18_336_850tmp.png

    20_360_850tmp.png

    Yep  Karl  Much better than this time last year chart wise that is.  Most have frequent Northerly North Westerly incursions  with quite low uppers filtering down the country  a couple even have a cold easterly late on in the  run.   All in All a nice set of ensembles.   It could well be a chilly Bonfire night this year.  Maybe.

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by weirpig

    Interesting  Gfs 6z   run there.  quite a lot of ridging in the Atlantic  followed by outbreaks of north westerly/ Northerlies   and ending in fi  with quite a potent northerly  originating from a low coming from the north.  it would certainly feel raw for early November .  If it were to verify  that is.

     

     

     

    gfss.png

    temp.png

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by weirpig

    47 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    Hmm, not that good then (if you're a coldie). On the plus side, it's only 19th October.

    Doesn't seem 2 minutes since someone posted that AO was "rising slightly, before tanking negative again".

    Having said that, most members look to be staying in the negative area up until 1st Nov.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

     

    *** EDIT - I just realised I was looking at NAO not AO ***
    AO is here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

     

     

    Yes  there does tend to be over the coming 2 week period a slight rising  AO,  

    However it still at this point doesnt seem to be going into positive terrority,  And with the Zonal winds  forecast to do strange things i really have no idea whats going to happen over the coming weeks and months.

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...