weirpig
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Posts posted by weirpig
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Rince and repeat on the control
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The most startling aspect of that run for me is the warmth thats being experienced in North America and Canada. Will that have implications going forward?
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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:
Central Europe doesn't become warm. The EC update shows temperatures below average for the first two weeks of November and then no clear signal thereafter. Have posted a map of central Europe as I find may people confuse it with eastern Europe and south east Europe.
Sorry Season, Yes more eastern Europe perhaps getting warmer
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10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Hi SS, from what I have gathered, that doesn't mean Average, it actually means that there is no clear signal, so whilst it could mean average, it could equally end up being above average (less likely imho) or indeed below average as per the previous 2 weeks. But I could be wrong, just what I remember Ian saying a few days ago.
Which when you look at the graphic kind of makes sense, It would be unusual to have such broad agreement (given the current setup) of overall average temperature, depicted by the white shade.
I really like those charts. Were they posted a few days ago off a Hungarian site? You can quite clearly see the trend over the next 10 days or so for a north easterly to set in and also how warm central,Eastern Europe becomes i think for the forseable we need to look north for our weather.
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Well signs maybe of the Atlantic gearing up slightly as we move into November ( was bound to happen) however the next 10 days or so could be very seasonal, Then after that its all to play for, Not a bad ec46 and also Fergies cryptic message a interesting few months coming up
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Can't post charts. But if you want in my opinion to see the run of the day check out the control run for this time of year it's great
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Differences again at 144 on the 18z different shape ridging into Greenland and more of a northerly effecting the uk doh beaten to it
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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Hi I did a post on TWO that reviewed all the -1 AO Novmebers, back to when the records started- I think Ended up with 9 Novembers so 27 Winter Months -
Of these The return was 21 /27 -AO Months ( included most if not all of the juicy winters )
removing 1998 which was a Super Nino winter the sample went 24/27.... ( 89%)
I will leave that here.....
Thank you for that information, 9 Novembers however in that period of time does not seem like a lot. I suppose it shows how quite rare the situation we currently find ourselves in.
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
The strat thread is looking way beyond events in the trop modelling that we are looking at. Assumptions on what might transpire in Dec and Jan are not going to show on the current fi modelling for a fair while yet.
The trop patterns are interesting enough for the time of year
be patient!
And im not too sure where an 'AO very negative' forecast exists for the whole of November??? (That we can see anyway)
Ammended to first 2 thirds of November. Surely if that prediction above is anything right then surely the whole of the month looks like being negative?
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30 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
It really is very strange this year AO predicted to be very negative for the first 2 3rds of November going by that prediction, Surely that must have some positive ramifications going into the winter season. If that is correct i expect November to be below average in temps
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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Better than mild but I wont be completely satisfied until they show a massive belting right insde the reliable timeframe.
There you go Bound to happen. only at 384h
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Daily Stars take on events this coming week and next.
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:
November to January outlook from WSI
Well if the charts verify as shown then there forecast is bust before it has even started. i suppose their forecast all depends on how much blocking we receive in November lets see
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Difference again at 144 compared to the last run with so much difference at a short term range impossible to know what the pattern will be like going forward
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3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
When you consider the ensembles and ECM are so so jury remains out for me. Yes they all go for sustained blocking but the uppers are not quite good enough.
Of course the bigger picture is still v good and intriguing.
Just remember guys we have learnt many a time that if there is even a glimmer of hope for mild it usually wins out
Oh yes I agree. But it's November even if it does go the way of the pear still loads of time. If this was in the last throughs of winter I perhaps wouldn't be so relaxed
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Regardless of uppers etc the theme is on all models the blocking in the Atlantic . It's November and no Atlantic pinch yourself this year is very unique
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
Ok - didn't check the small print!!
they are ens means of 51 runs so should be a decent stab at what can be expected, even at three weeks out
I didnt realise it was the mean of the ens. Very impressive charts for mid November.
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Just now, drm said:
no jules was right those are weeks 45 and 46 of 2016
Yep thought so Im with Karlos calculator tapping.
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Btw , its days 45 and 46
Is It? I thought it says 432 hours which is i think 18 days to 25 days away or am i simply having a moment .
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Cant stand people who cherry pick charts. Perb 5 Dead cert.
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Well a quick glance at the ensembles about 80% show us in a colder airstream by around the 2nd of November. quite good agreement. After that
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Well if its cool chilly frosty weather your after with a nip in the Breeze then this run is right up your street. More or less from 114 hours right up to the end of the run the Uk is under a chilly if not at times cold airmass. lovely Autumn weather what more could we want it is only November after all
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Day 10 chart. Wet and Windy anybody?, A very stubborn block and cold uppers making there way to the UK
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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
This run looks much better , block developing over Greenland again and much better over the NH with regards heights. Could bring back a cold Easterly by day 9 again.
Yes much more robust block on the 6z am i really looking for wintry charts in October?
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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by weirpig
Having a quick look at the Ensembles there is quite a few that are going for height rises again towards greenland after this initial cool snap. infact most have attempted rises somewhere in the later output. including the control.