[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice upgrade for the south 

 

Yep the band seems to be moving more northerly each run. One to watch for sure 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

They're from NOAA. NOAA organisations have traditionally used capital letters, all to do with how their forecasts used to be transmitted via telegram I believe, and even some of their existing communications can only deal with caps. They are finally and gradually starting to use lower case letters now though!

Lol nick  i do believe what you say is true although they have only been using capitals for six months before that it was a series of dots and dashes . 

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

1 hour ago, Sparkiee storm said:

I have a sneaky feeling, that us in parts of the Midlands could get more snow showers than they are currently forecasting, as the winds are pretty strong so get blown in easier also without them loosing much intensity.

yep and me Sparkiee   I have a feeling some of these showers will penetrate far inland   i also thing the Chesire gap streamer is also a possibility  As always devil in the detail.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Most powerful model?

Highest res  compared to its ensembles.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Regarding the snow potential for the next few days   it just shows how hard it is to nail down the specifics   although not HI res  the control brings quite a bit of snow for the majority of England on Fritter friday

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

might even see a chesire gap feature cropping up for those further inland.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Forget the channel tunnel anyone fancy ice skating to Calais  models are all over the place  ecm and gfs poles apart. Great viewing 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Because what happens upstream in the US has significant ramifications for what then follows on over the UK.

Yes we know that but an explanation of the ramifications for our isle would be appreciated 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Just now, Iceaxecrampon said:

06z

Fun and games hopefully commence Wednesday evening although previous runs have tempered expectation slightly.

Chance of streamer activity NW but most ppn just to the NE 

 

But....

HGT 500 chart a car crash at +189 with the euro high.

 

 

Just as a matter of interest  do  models take into consideration  streamers etc?  By that i mean do they forecast the chesire gap etc   because looking at the above chart it seems that the snow chance could  move alot more inland then is currently showing.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Not a bad effort from the control run at 10 days. Pleasantly chilly for all of Europe! Not able to post charts at the moment sorry, but the control keeps Europe in the freezer.

It Certainly does  a much better run all around from the control   brings a chilly easterly towards us  will feel much more like winter.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Control trie to bring in a easterly.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Gfs on Meteociel  seems to be updating in real time!   probably still be wrong.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yday eve the posters who put all faith in teleconnections and background signals were saying that nothing was really supporting anything more than a couple of days of cold, snow......SM seemed to be challenging this ........and this evening's runs seem to be hinting at something a bit longer in duration past next w/e...........Discuss.

As Matt Hugo said a winter of wild cards  pin the tail on the donkey this year 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

But remember when you see the downgrades you rarely see the models upgrade.     Whoops  

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

5 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Day 10 mean, not what we wanted to see

I'd have been more shocked if there had of been  240 is way out  but there does look like good agreement to 168. And really anything past that is spitting in the wind. I guess we can see more when we are aware of the clusters 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

3 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

What about the West Midlands Steve. Do these charts give me room for hope here?

Yep Cheshire gap we do very well

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Can we bypass the spam fritters this evening  better run on the ecm tonight. Another option on the table 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief what happened! Hugely disappointing start to the day with the ECM and UKMO now deciding to join the GFS with some fails this week. Very poor modelling of the pattern over Russia.

The ECM looks even worse than the GFS and typically now that its found the worst solution it will probably verify. Its now impossible to trust amplification even at T144hrs. One could understand the ECM backtracking in FI but really it all starts to go pearshaped from within T144hrs.

Once again after being promised at least rump steak we're back to spam fritters!

It all depends on ones expectations.   For me im happy with the outcome if not ecstatic    snow still a possibility for some  and still chances of upgrades in the future( we can hope)  I really dont know what spam fritters are  but if you havnt eaten in a while i suspect they are lovely.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

I suppose  it all boils down to what your after   If your after a long term freeze up  then you may be dissapointed, But if your happy with a few days of cold weather with snow thrown in for good measure then the 06z is right up your street.  Uppers cold enough for showers to move inland on a stiff North westerly   the more north you go the more chance of seeing the white stuff   Id bank this run  in a heart beat  after the past few weeks of nothingness 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

cold north westerly  with snow for most   on THIS run  however i expect will chop and change

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Quite a easterly correction the 18z however loads more scenarios to be played out over the coming days 

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

im quite pleased with the current models.  all seem to be going for a cold north westerly which im sure will bring snow if the uppers are to be believed    chesire gap streamer would make most on here happy.   Onwards and upwards 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Its been a woeful winter really for eventful  weather, But 2015 wasnt the best but at least here at least got some snow,  So not giving up hope just yet

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Well the  control  may be short lived  but it certainly follows the cold theme  Edit   easterly garden path again?   no nor me.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Bitterly cold weekend next esp places with snowcover from the those juicy snowshowers..

Have not posted for a while   but however short lived it may be  there is the potential for some heavy wintry showers, At least on this run, some may see a covering.  North west in prime location  and maybe a chesire gap streamer for those further inland.  Ill take this for what so far has been a winter of let downs