[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Seasonal ECM or GLOSEA5 public charts on the UKMO site?

I'm sure it's the ecm seasonal I believe it's usually on the 4th 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Theres an EC46 tonight, over to the usual suspects if they can be kind enough to do us the honours around 11pm tonight>

Yep and I believe it is the seasonal tomorrow ??

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ed, that's why I don't mind if these charts fail! very selfish of me I know, but for my location it's too early for snow, kinda hoping GFS is right, I wanna see cold setups 4 weeks from now

I understand that. But surely it must be better going into winter with a blocked setup and pressure on the vortex then a Atlantic driven pattern ? 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

TBH, with SSTs currently being what they are, and irrespective of whatever the 'BOOM!' runs might suggest, any snowfall next-week will be confined to high ground away from the coast...Bog standard November weather, if you ask me...

Pete. Typical November weather is wind and rain  blocking looks great for me at the moment it's all about frost and cold. The snow can wait 

[SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

what is cert?

Fat  Thumb  CET    (central england temp)

[SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Blimey. I'd die for a winter like that these days!

I do recall - at least, I think I do - that January 1977 had an enormous blizzard, oop norf? Wasn't Huddersfield on the News, something about a murder? Or, far more likely WP, am I losing it?

Id like to help out Pete  but i was only 1,    i think there may have been a snow storm  trawling through the archives

[SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed. And neither subsequent winter was anything to write home about?

Not amazing  However i believe winter 76-77 had cert of 1.8 for December 2.1 for January. 3.6 for Feb.   So not that bad.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Looking at the Gfs Ensembles  their are quite a few now going for a ECM type of solution with the energy droping more south  however most if not all have the pattern a little to far east at this juncture.    Loads still to be resolved 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Gfs  totally different at a relatively short time range.  Slighty different times  but you get the idea

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

4 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Are we starting to see the GFS come towards the ECM?

GFS 0Z   GFS 6Z

More ridging towards Greenland and over Scandinavia at this point.

certainly leaning more towards the Ecm on this run    Totaly different pattern 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Morning all  Just a quick question  is the ECM still the king when it comes to verification up to 144?  Has anyone got a link to the verification stats ?

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Well the gfs is going crazy in fl 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Can't wait to see what the JMA 00z shows

More of this please!

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'll take P20 of the GEFS please 

Nah   ive always been a 7 kind a guy 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

The differences  with the vortex at 120 is quite stark between the ECM and Gfs    with a tightly knitted Depression moving out of southern greenland

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Doesn't end up like the ECM, but I still feel it stepped in that direction. And looking at the ECM ensemble average the Op had plenty of support - hard to think it will happen without the METO onboard in their longer range though.

It has Ali   I think a couple of ensembles might start to show a Scandi high   we shall see.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

 Slightly Different orientation of the high  and colder uppers on this run  were will it lead?

[The Midlands - Weather Chat - Spring Onwards]

20 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not bad prediction, If I lived in your location I would be as well, you may even see a few flurries on 6-7 Nov

Yep I think a lot will see snow this year  fingers crossed 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

5 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

It's well out of date; run early october. New run out in this next week usually.

whoops yes should have added  that was just to illustrate the temp anom  in North America  I expect big changes this month.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Tweeted by Judah.  Look at the temp Anom  in Northern America

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

9 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Correct. GloSea5 points to a weakened PV throughout the period. Note the markedly low probability for +ve avg temperatures overall (compare to last year's prognosis!). Anyway, it's all for a different thread: Apols mods. :-)

Again maybe off topic  but it mentions  30% chance of being in the coldest sector (5)   is there a list/diagram of these sectors  which will correlate to what they represent in temps 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Am I correct in saying this goes with a colder Dec/Jan than Normal - rather than Nov. 

I believe its the mean of the three months.  30 % chance of it being in the coldest sector 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners

Sorry had to sit on this until formally released in last few minutes!

 

Hope fergie does not mind me posting  this in here   what a update!

[South West & CS England Weather Discussion Spring 2016 (26th March ------->)]

8 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Can now let this cat out of bag.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners

Sorry had to sit on this until formally released in last few minutes!

excellent update  we might even see some white stuff this year

[Met office Contingency planners forecasts]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

October update

November to January

Temperature

Precipitation

that will raise some peoples hopes.