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Everything posted by weirpig
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well that was fun! A humdinger of a Northerly dive barrel Lows cold air galore and the run ends with a easterly what could go wrong? easily the run of the season hopefully it sits at the mild end of the ensembles. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking into the future is difficult with the models. But it also looks like the here and now is also causing the models difficulties the low for Sunday is modelled in three different ways on the hi res models the euro4 going for a washout of a day for most of England. The arpege is going for the low to be more southerly and hardly any precipitation makes it past the south Midlands. And the arome has rain turning to snow for Wales Midlands and central northern England place your bets -
Just for fun you understand! the above chart i posted was from the 0z this is the run from the 6z some might see the white stuff falling quite a bit of intense precipitation about. of course until the track is nailed down all speculation.
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow very nice what a lovely feature wales midlands and the north may see some pink pixels certainly not a boring start to the season -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
i Think Nouska posted this link earlier it doesnt seem to show any snow from the ECM run although it isnt the easiest to navigate. And indeed the chart could be from last nights ecm https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lol whoops lesson learned look twice before you post . Yeah like I was saying rain -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's all conjecture anyway but I would have thought snow could fall and 1 or 2c -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes this type of scenario always does well for the Midlands and further north think the uppers maybe a tad too high but high ground may well do well. One to watch -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes should have been clearer the LP at t120hours of course pinpointing the exact route it will take is like pinning the tail on the donkey -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Having a quick Look Through the ensembles for the period regarding the low its a little bit of a mixed bag ( at this range it was always likely to be) Some have the low undercutting the Uk, Some have it bringing Snow to the Midlands and the North , And a few bringing heavy rain. one Perb even has the South east buried under snow. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All conjecture But the control as the first Low at t120 tracking more southerly with snow sleet rain on its northern edge maybe even the far south may see a sprinkle of the white stuff? -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
However I do like extreme weather so it would certainly be exciting as my sons trampoline ends up in next doors garden -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm having a few days of work the latter part of the week I was hoping to sort out the garden before the onset of winter plus our fence isn't the best -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hopefully that feature will be downgraded on the next run. Looks very wet and wild one to keep an eye on -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Possibly Crew but all indications at the moment seems to be going for a front loaded winter the later half may be quite a lot more milder maybe influenced more by southerly winds. im still thinging we are looking at a cold if not very cold December. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Those charts are from Dec-Feb but are there charts available per month. ie a probability map for December,January etc? -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If im reading that correctly doesnt that point to the possibility of a warmer than average winter? if so thats quite a bit different to what they were saying earlier in the month as ever time will tell. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Im a bit confused bt that is the last figure the daytime temps and the first night time? -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
maybe not cold for our little isle yet. But look at scandi again they are having a very cold start to the season. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
weirpig replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Lol same here lesson listen to wife when she says no more drink. Onwards and upwards
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I've been watching this closely waves could cause quite a bit on impact. On a side note sorry
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Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction
weirpig replied to iapennell's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes I have a CTA however I'm sorry Ian still don't understand brain must be overfilled with figures